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GTripp0012 09-21-2009 09:09 PM

The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
Are chronicled here:

[url=http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/jim-zorn-on-4th-down.html]Advanced NFL Stats: Jim Zorn on 4th Down[/url]

GTripp0012 09-21-2009 09:24 PM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
Putting this analysis in layman's terms: if Zorn went to an extreme and took a knee on 4th down, giving the Rams the ball at the 3 yard line and saying, "betcha can't get a FG against our defense", he's actually got a better chance to win that way than to kick the FG (80% vs. 78%). Many coaches would have kicked in that situation, but you can do the math on it ... [U]it's basically a free offensive play, and if you get a yard, the game is over[/U].

If you run a questionable play like Zorn did, you aren't any worse off with them on the 4 yard line needing a FG, then with them on the 30 yard line following a kickoff, needing a TD. And that's not even considering that they could return the kickoff for a TD, and jump ahead right there.

Slingin Sammy 33 09-21-2009 09:26 PM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
Crystalized my thoughts eloquently (and backed them up statistically)

[URL]http://www.thewarpath.net/redskins-locker-room/32029-rams-vs-redskins-gameday-thread-16.html#post592041[/URL]

Although I disagree with the thread title :)

Lotus 09-21-2009 10:26 PM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
Unlike some other folks, I immediately thought that going for it the second time was an excellent idea. I still think it was the right call, even though we failed to convert. Thank you for giving my thinking mathematical support.

Now, the play call itself was terrible. Everyone knew we were going to run Portis left and, even if we had run left, a power play would have been better than a stretch. We also could have thrown a fade, called a bootleg, dragged Cooley over the middle, etc. Anything but the stretch play left.

But, back to the issue at hand: despite being lambasted by many folks for not kicking a field goal, Zorn was correct in going for it the second time.

CRedskinsRule 09-21-2009 10:54 PM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
I am really tired, but of course I still have my twocents:

I absolutely liked going for it.

How many times have people said about the hogs "they knew we were going to run, and we ran". If CP had made that yard, it would have established a presence. and I would have cheered. he didn't so it was another nerve wracking ending (at least for about 40 game seconds).

I hope Zorn looks at the redzone tape a thousand times this week, and sees how a defensive guru in Spags shuts down the run. Zorn must learn, there is no preseason, or training camp equivalent to the red zone defense of the Giants, or of Spagnoulo. It is not something book learning only can teach. He has to see the effects from a coach's viewpoint. Is he learning, let's hope we get 5+ redzone attempts next week against Jim Schwartz.

GO SKINS

skins89moss 09-22-2009 06:38 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
I like the idea to go for it on 4th and 1. If we make it game over and we build confidence in the run game. If we dont make it they have no time outs and have to go the lenth of the field to get in FG range. If we kick the FG i also thought about if they get a decent return then we are screwed. I liked the chances that our defense would stop them if we don't score they are backed up. Zorn showed guts and he showed faith in our O-line. Well our O-line could not control the Rams D-line at the LOS and Portis get strung out for no gain. Our O-line has to do better than that against a suspect Rams D-line. Where is Big Mike Williams, how about putting Lorenzo Alexander in the back field or something.

htownskinfan 09-22-2009 07:26 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
at the time I thought it was a horrible call and Zorn should be fired after the game,and i still would have thought that until reading this.So I was wrong and Zorn made the right call to go for it.I am still not happy with corny zorny,he needs to get his shit together quick

jsarno 09-22-2009 08:12 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
[quote=htownskinfan;593379]at the time I thought it was a horrible call and Zorn should be fired after the game,and i still would have thought that until reading this.So I was wrong and Zorn made the right call to go for it.I am still not happy with corny zorny,he needs to get his shit together quick[/quote]

Getting only 9 points vs a horrible Rams team is evident that he does need to get it together quick. Both Zorn and Campbell's seat are getting awfully hot!

30gut 09-22-2009 09:02 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
[quote=GTripp0012;593230]Are chronicled here:

[url=http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/jim-zorn-on-4th-down.html]Advanced NFL Stats: Jim Zorn on 4th Down[/url][/quote]

I'm not sure how that author gets the numbers for his 'model' so its hard for me to put much faith in his 'model' but using his own metrics:

[quote]Short yardage conversion attempts near the goal line are less successful than elsewhere on the field.
One-yard conversions are successful [B][COLOR="Red"]68%[/COLOR][/B] of the time

Where a FG:

A FG attempt from that distance is virtually automatic—[B][COLOR="Red"]99%[/COLOR][/B].[/quote]

All that matters imo are the odds for success of the play at hand and we went with the lesser option.

skinsfan69 09-22-2009 09:14 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
[quote=GTripp0012;593232]Putting this analysis in layman's terms: if Zorn went to an extreme and took a knee on 4th down, giving the Rams the ball at the 3 yard line and saying, "betcha can't get a FG against our defense", he's actually got a better chance to win that way than to kick the FG (80% vs. 78%). Many coaches would have kicked in that situation, but you can do the math on it ... [U]it's basically a free offensive play, and if you get a yard, the game is over[/U].

If you run a questionable play like Zorn did, you aren't any worse off with them on the 4 yard line needing a FG, then with them on the 30 yard line following a kickoff, needing a TD. And that's not even considering that they could return the kickoff for a TD, and jump ahead right there.[/quote]

Going it for it was kind of stupid cause a fg could've won the game. I think you've gotta kick it there. But fine, if you want to go for it then have some damn variety in your run game. Everyone knew where the ball was going. I honestly think we need to try the wildcat w/ Betts and Portis. We need to do something, anything at this point to try and score more points.

CRedskinsRule 09-22-2009 09:18 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
[quote=30gut;593398]I'm not sure how that author gets the numbers for his 'model' so its hard for me to put much faith in his 'model' but using his own metrics:



[B]All that matters imo are the odds for success of the play at hand [/B]and we went with the lesser option.[/quote]

If that were the case you would call for a one yard dive everytime on 3rd and 10. Why, because it's a 99% chance that you will succeed. You have to look at the what was left to do in order for us to win the game, and if that is your focus, you go for it, don't pass it, and give it to someone who does not fumble(lest you see a fumble return for a td like in last year's st louis game).

If we get the FG, we probably squib kick, but whatever, they have a chance for a decent return, and then they are airing it out, against 2 CBs who had less then stellar days.

I think playing the odds for winning, it was the right call, and really even the play call kept the ball from being put in a precarious situation.

the big IFs in this game if Sellers holds on or DT catches it, or JC doesn't underthrow Kelly.(that still would have been awesome to see him get his first(i believe) NFL TD on a 80ish yard pass play.

CRedskinsRule 09-22-2009 09:19 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
[quote=skinsfan69;593400]Going it for it was kind of stupid cause a fg could've won the game. I think you've gotta kick it there. But fine, if you want to go for it then have some damn variety in your run game. Everyone knew where the ball was going. I honestly think we need to try the wildcat w/ Betts and Portis. We need to do something, anything at this point to try and score more points.[/quote]

really a fg there would have won the game. so did we lose because we didn't kick the fg?

joethiesmanfan 09-22-2009 09:22 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
I agree with Zorn on this one. That was a smart decison. When you take into account the feel of the game. That close to the end zone with Haynesworth on the field is dangerous.

Daseal 09-22-2009 09:43 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
I'm typically all about being aggressive on the goal line. I think we made a mistake when we kicked the FG early and when we didn't late. Yes, if you get a yard, the game is over. But what gave Zorn any idea that we could get that yard? Fact is, statistics or not, it's important to look at how the game has been going. All it would have taken were 2-3 good completions to put the Rams in FG distance, which is something Bulger can do. Luckily, our D stood up. However, forcing the Rams to get a TD is another story.

Ruhskins 09-22-2009 09:54 AM

Re: The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis
 
[quote=Daseal;593412]I'm typically all about being aggressive on the goal line. I think we made a mistake when we kicked the FG early and when we didn't late. Yes, if you get a yard, the game is over. But what gave Zorn any idea that we could get that yard? Fact is, statistics or not, it's important to look at how the game has been going. All it would have taken were 2-3 good completions to put the Rams in FG distance, which is something Bulger can do. Luckily, our D stood up. However, forcing the Rams to get a TD is another story.[/quote]

Did we run up the middle at all in this game? I mean it seems like all we were doing was running to the left (and we ran to the left on that 4th down).


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