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munny 11-12-2009 02:41 PM

Someone good at math...
 
Okay... so I am a math moron but a bit of a gambler. I heard a discussion this morning of a place that was considering a 12X12 box for a $1 million bucks. That is, you have to get 12 out of 12 games right. I was wondering, what are the total number of possible combinations of 12 games by 12 games?

Anyone?

saden1 11-12-2009 03:03 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
Total possible combinations is 12^12 ~= 8.9 trillion.

OK, so I need more clarification to do the math right. I mean, you have to get 12 games right out of how many total number of games you have to select from? What is total number of games you have to choose from?

mlmdub130 11-12-2009 03:15 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
i now have a headache

ArtMonkDrillz 11-12-2009 03:19 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
The answer is ?3

munny 11-12-2009 03:41 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
I have to select 12 games only and get exactly 12 games right. So, I was thinking something like 2^12 ?

saden1 11-12-2009 03:43 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
12 games out of how many games? I mean, do you have to select 12 games out of the entire xbox 360 game library? In order to calculate the odds of you getting 12 correct we need to know the total number of games you have to select from. Maybe post a link to the contest itself.

Anywho, the formula for calculating the odds of you picking the right 12 games is:

n!(r!*(n−r)!)

Where n is the total number games you have to choose from and r is the number of games you have to get right. So if you have to pick 12 games right out of 100 games your odds are: 1,050,421,051,106,700 to 1. That's a quadrillion to one odds...a runaway star has a better chance of hitting our sun than you getting the right 12 games.

munny 11-12-2009 03:52 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
No, no. (perhaps you are just messing with me)

Each week you look at the NFL games(with the betting line of course). Out of the 16 games available(obviously less during bye weeks) you would select 12 games. To win the million, you would have to get all 12 picks correct.

So, I figured 2^12 = 4096 possible combinations. So, if I was to place 4096 bets at $12.50 per play, I would spend roughly $51,000 but be assured a $1 million payout. Seems like unacceptable risk to the house.

Now, calculating the odds of hitting that without loading up every combination would be a different thing. Each game could fairly be considered to be a 50% chance of winning. Maybe shade that up to 54% or so if you are having a good year and have a good f"feel" for the games. Either way though, the odds of a single play would be pretty tall.

saden1 11-12-2009 04:02 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
I total misunderstood...I had video games on my mind. So basically you have to win 12 games you've selected every week to get that million? Or do they give out a million every week?

mlmdub130 11-12-2009 04:05 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
i have a headache again

KLHJ2 11-12-2009 04:07 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
What if there are 5 ties? Unlikely I know, but it seems as if you would be out of 51K.

munny 11-12-2009 04:19 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
Valid question. My assumption would be that they are all half point games. For example, Denver is favored by 3.5 right now over the Skins. No ties possible.

As a footnote for my fellow degenerates - Washkington is 2-6 against the spread. 0-4 both on the road and as a favorite. So, if you bet the other team, you are making money 75% of the time. Better than the market!

hooskins 11-12-2009 04:25 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
thats .5^12 then right. If the prob of winning each game is 50 percent.

cpayne5 11-12-2009 04:36 PM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
[quote=hooskins;624227]thats .5^12 then right. If the prob of winning each game is 50 percent.[/quote]

No. 2 possible outcomes for 12 games. 2^12. .5^12 is a tiny number. ;)

Adding a tie to the mix changes the numbers significantly. You could use your judgment to minimize the risks of a tie, though, but the results wouldn't be a sure thing, obviously. ie, you may lose a ton of money. :)

Hijinx 11-13-2009 12:06 AM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
The answer is 42, but I don't know what the question is.

JoeRedskin 11-13-2009 05:25 AM

Re: Someone good at math...
 
[quote=Hijinx;624398]The answer is 42, but I don't know what the question is.[/quote]

Ask the mice.


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