ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]Sounds pretty good to me. Hopefully they will use it for college QB ratings too, I have ZERO idea on how to interrupt a college QB rating other then higher is better. Also what would be nice if you could break down the Total Quarterback Rating into the things that make up the total rating, so you could see how a QB rated at just passing or just running or just comebacks, ect., to me that would be cooler to look at. [/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]Also Smoot if you can throw your weight around something ive always thought would be nice if people broke down interception stats. So maybe use the term Interception if a QB is at fault and Pick if a receiver is at fault. I hate seeing a interception that is clearly the fault of a WR get put on the QB's stat line. [/FONT][/COLOR]

[URL="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/01/espn-tries-to-build-a-better-quarterback-rating/"]ESPN tries to build a better quarterback rating | ProFootballTalk[/URL]

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

Here's more from our press release

[url=http://www.espnmediazone3.com/us/2011/08/01/espn-introduces-the-total-quarterback-rating/]ESPN Introduces The Total Quarterback Rating | ESPN MediaZone[/url]

We'll have a show on ESPN Friday night at 8pm on this

Tweet your questions to @ESPNStatsInfo. We're answering them right now

And by we...I should clarify I have nothing to do with this. I know the guys working on it and they're great but it's not anything I work on

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

It's funny...I work at ESPN working on the stats database... and the producers haven't come to us yet to see if we can calculate this...

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=mlmpetert;818160][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]Sounds pretty good to me. Hopefully they will use it to the college QB rating too, I have ZERO idea on how to interrupt a college QB rating other then higher is better. Also what would be nice if you could break down the Total Quarterback Rating into the things that make up the total rating, so you could see how a QB rated at just passing or just running or just comebacks, ect.[/FONT][/COLOR]

[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][B]Also Smoot if you can throw your weight around something ive always thought would be nice if people broke down interception stats. So maybe use the term Interception if a QB is at fault and Pick if a receiver is at fault. I hate seeing a interception that is clearly the fault of a WR get put on the QB's stat line.[/B] [/FONT][/COLOR]

[URL="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/01/espn-tries-to-build-a-better-quarterback-rating/"]ESPN tries to build a better quarterback rating | ProFootballTalk[/URL][/quote]

That last paragraph is an excellent point. Not all interceptions are the qb's fault and should be interpreted as such. What if you could attribute interceptions to someone besides a quarterback, or a player acting as a quarterback on a specific play, like a running back or a wide receiver that throws the ball.

Say, for instance that play last year where the ball was thrown perfectly to Moss, and when it hit his hands it bounced straight up in the air and got picked off, well what if that interception could be attributed to Moss on his stat sheet and not to the quarterback, when it clearly wasn't his fault?

Now, naturally you'd have to make a distinction between when a receiver tries to catch the ball, but screws it up and it gets picked, and when a receiver acts as a quarterback in trying to throw the ball, and it gets picked, but at least that way the pick would be attributed to the proper player instead of it being solely the quarterback's fault.

Curious to see if this system will catch on. Also curious to know why they didn't include handoffs in the rating as well, since handoffs are an important part of a quarterback's job. Let's say there's an instance where the handoff between the qb and the rb screws up and the ball gets fumbled, and it is equally both players fault, but it gets attributed to the rb instead, that should be fixed as well. I understand qb rating should be fixed, but other stats need to be fixed too.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

My understanding is who is really at fault for the interception will be factored into the equation

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=SmootSmack;818164]Here's more from our press release

[URL="http://www.espnmediazone3.com/us/2011/08/01/espn-introduces-the-total-quarterback-rating/"]ESPN Introduces The Total Quarterback Rating | ESPN MediaZone[/URL]

We'll have a show on ESPN Friday night at 8pm on this

Tweet your questions to @ESPNStatsInfo. We're answering them right now

And by we...I should clarify I have nothing to do with this. I know the guys working on it and they're great but it's not anything I work on[/quote]

Twitter makes my brain hurt.

Maybe you can answer this- will ESPN use this stat during their broadcasts of NFL games instead of the traditional QB rating system? Will they do both? Are they going to lobby the NFL to adopt this statistic over QB rating?

Regardless, I've always thought the QB rating thing was pretty flawed. I'm glad to see this development.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=EEich;818168]It's funny...I work at ESPN working on the stats database... and the producers haven't come to us yet to see if we can calculate this...[/quote]

Just get it done dude. Just get it done :)

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

Jaws was involved in making it. Personally thats good enough for me.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=GMScud;818175]Twitter makes my brain hurt.

Maybe you can answer this- will ESPN use this stat during their broadcasts of NFL games instead of the traditional QB rating system? Will they do both? Are they going to lobby the NFL to adopt this statistic over QB rating?

Regardless, I've always thought the QB rating thing was pretty flawed. I'm glad to see this development.[/quote]

They'll definitely use this. I don't really know if they'll just wipe away the traditional QB rating system for the telecasts. My guess is at least initially it may be a little of both to show the difference

Don't think they'd necessarily lobby the NFL to adopt this stat, but are encouraging other media to feel free to use it. Hence the name Total Quarterback Rating, not ESPN Total Quarterback Rating

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

Didn't we hear something about this during last year? I was reading [URL="http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/41811/how-to-identify-nfls-best-quarterbacks"]this[/URL] article on ESPN from Mike Sando and it felt like deja vu. Also interesting to ponder this list that was announced in the article.

[quote=Mike Sando]
I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:
Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.
[/quote]

Curious to know if this changes people's opinions about Kyle Orton. A lot of people, including myself, were of the opinion that he was at least slightly above average last year. I guess this takes into account that a lot of his yards were garbage time yards because the Broncos played from behind a lot of the time.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=SmootSmack;818164]Here's more from our press release

[url=http://www.espnmediazone3.com/us/2011/08/01/espn-introduces-the-total-quarterback-rating/]ESPN Introduces The Total Quarterback Rating | ESPN MediaZone[/url]

We'll have a show on ESPN Friday night at 8pm on this

Tweet your questions to @ESPNStatsInfo. We're answering them right now

And by we...I should clarify I have nothing to do with this. I know the guys working on it and they're great but it's not anything I work on[/quote]


Can I tweet "why do they let idiots like Matt Millen and Vinny Ceratto continue to talk about football?"

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=NC_Skins;818191]Can I tweet "why do they let idiots like Matt Millen and Vinny Ceratto continue to talk about football?"[/quote]

It's been done -- I always find it hilarious that the two guys most responsible for driving their respective franchises into the gutter (VC with us and Millen with Detroit) are quoted as experts.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=rbanerjee23;818224]It's been done -- I always find it hilarious that the two guys most responsible for driving their respective franchises into the gutter (VC with us and Millen with Detroit) are quoted as experts.[/quote]

Experts at driving their team into the ground maybe.

Apparantly Doug Farrar is [URL="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Has-ESPN-created-the-perfect-quarterback-rating-?urn=nfl-wp4362"]hesitant[/URL] to approve of ESPN's new qb rating system.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[QUOTE]Why does it only include passing, and not other aspects of quarterback play like avoiding sacks and running? [B]Why does it penalize interceptions but not fumbles? [/B]Why does it treat a six-yard completion on second-and-5 the same as a six-yard completion on third-and-11?[/QUOTE]

Rex is so screwed with this new system. Lol.

That last sentence doesn't serve JC well either.

Bottom line this is going to do a great job of showing us who the best QB's really are. I'd also be interested to see Vicks Falcon numbers when this new rating comes out.

I also like this.

[QUOTE]Also, plays in closely contested games carry a greater value than plays in less competitive situations.
[/QUOTE]

Sounds great on paper, hopefully it delivers.

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The new QB stat/rating scale cannot be more misleading than the one that has been around for the last 30 years or so.

Kudos to whomever at ESPN did all the work/research to get this ball rolling...

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Love the part about excluding meaningless stats.
Like the stats Rex piled up on the Cowboys loss.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=30gut;818255]Love the part about excluding meaningless stats.
Like the stats Rex piled up on the Cowboys loss.[/quote]

That wasn't meaningless. Rex brought that team out from behind a pretty sizable lead.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

Makes a lot of sense to me, especially including fumbles, sacks, penalties, and runs as factors in a QB's performance.

Determining "fault" isn't always easy though, but I think it will probably be more accurate, even with flawed calcuations, than the old QB rating.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=30gut;818255]Love the part about excluding meaningless stats.
Like the stats Rex piled up on the Cowboys loss.[/quote]

You might be singing a different tune had Santana caught that bomb that would have given us the lead.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

If this stat kills QB rating as we know it, it will be well worth the endeavor.

Comprehensive ways to evaluate QB play have been around as long as I have, so perhaps ESPN Stats & Info isn't exactly heading into uncharted waters here. But based on the description, at least they aren't being repetitive with existing methodology, they are actually trying to incorporate elements of football beyond the play by play.

Just fearing that the methodology is going to be black boxed and that when the stat gets more advanced in future years, no one will be able to tell what changes are being made.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

I would love to know how some of the great QB's of the past came out in this rating (Unitas, Jurgenson, Graham, Marino, Montana, etc.) but I imagine that would be impossible to determine given its a play by play analysis.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=JoeRedskin;818287]I would love to know how some of the great QB's of the past came out in this rating (Unitas, Jurgenson, Graham, Marino, Montana, etc.) but I imagine that would be impossible to determine given its a play by play analysis.[/quote]

And that may be another huge benefit of a new rating scale.

Any ranking system - - such as the current one - - that can be applied to historically great QBs to compare them with current QBs is misleading because the game and the rules have changed.

Forget the numbers and just use your eyes:
[INDENT]Who is the better QB, Tony Romo or John Elway? Your eyes say it is Elway; the current rating system says it is not even close and Romo is far better. Romo ranks 4th all-time and Elway ranks 54th all time.

Who is the better QB, Duante Culpepper or Dan Marino? The rating system has Culpepper slightly ahead of Marino.

Who is the better QB, Mark Rypien or John Unitas? I think you have figured out what the current rating system says here...[/INDENT]
Oh, by the way, the current rating system says that Jason Campbell and Sonny Jurgensen have identical career ratings to date (82.6) and both of them are inferior to Donovan McNabb with a rating of 85.7.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=sportscurmudgeon;818299]And that may be another huge benefit of a new rating scale.

Any ranking system - - such as the current one - - that can be applied to historically great QBs to compare them with current QBs is misleading because the game and the rules have changed.

Forget the numbers and just use your eyes:
[INDENT]Who is the better QB, Tony Romo or John Elway? Your eyes say it is Elway; the current rating system says it is not even close and Romo is far better. Romo ranks 4th all-time and Elway ranks 54th all time.

Who is the better QB, Duante Culpepper or Dan Marino? The rating system has Culpepper slightly ahead of Marino.

Who is the better QB, Mark Rypien or John Unitas? I think you have figured out what the current rating system says here...[/INDENT]
Oh, by the way, the current rating system says that Jason Campbell and Sonny Jurgensen have identical career ratings to date (82.6) and both of them are inferior to Donovan McNabb with a rating of 85.7.[/quote]Good points about QB rating SC, though I'd point out that using quarterback rating or something else that adjusts for era, Romo's career to age thirty blows Elway's career to that date out of the water.

The argument for Elway up until the Shanahan era was that he WAS his offense, and that statistically, he's underrated simply because he had little help. But my eyes tell me that you can't separate the way Elway played in the 80's from the way Romo plays now. The numbers just say that Romo has been far more successful at it.

But yeah, QB ratings were never designed to compare players in the seventies to guys who play today.

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[quote=SmootSmack;818174]My understanding is who is really at fault for the interception will be factored into the equation[/quote]

That's easily factored in as a digital 1 or 0.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

Sounds interesting. The current QB rating doesn't tell the whole story.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

I knew it. We were given flack for letting JC go because he was "improving every year." ESPN's new rating suggest he's been going down hill since 2008.

45 2008 Jason Campbell WAS 654 54.8
60 2009 Jason Campbell WAS 647 49.4
70 2010 Jason Campbell OAK 479 43.8

McNabb
40 2009 Donovan McNabb PHI 569 57.3
50 2008 Donovan McNabb PHI 671 51.9
78 2010 Donovan McNabb WAS 596 41.0

So ironically we got worse at QB. Lol.


[QUOTE]Total QBR Basics
A quick primer on the fundamentals of Total Quarterback Rating:

Scoring: 0-100, from low to high. An average QB would be at 50.
Win Probability: All QB plays are scored based on how much they contribute to a win. By determining expected point totals for almost any situation, Total QBR is able to apply points to a quarterback based on every type of play he would be involved in.
Dividing Credit: Total QBR factors in such things as overthrows, underthrows, yards after the catch and more to accurately determine how much a QB contributes to each play.
Clutch Index: How critical a certain play is based on when it happens in a game is factored into the score.[/QUOTE]

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

Vince Young at 12? Man maybe we should have picked him up. Matt Ryan also seems destined for greatness if this new system is accurate.
Rank Season QB Team Action Plays QBR
1 2009 Peyton Manning IND 660 82.3
2 2008 Peyton Manning IND 649 79.7
3 2009 Drew Brees NO 613 77.2
4 2010 Tom Brady NE 607 76.0
5 2008 Matt Ryan ATL 570 72.6
6 2008 Chad Pennington MIA 577 72.3
7 2009 Philip Rivers SD 602 71.8
8 2008 Jay Cutler DEN 741 71.3
9 2009 Matt Schaub HOU 694 71.0
10 2009 Aaron Rodgers GB 717 69.7
11 2010 Peyton Manning IND 779 69.5
12 2009 Vince Young TEN 347 69.2
13 2008 Matt Schaub HOU 474 69.2
14 2008 Philip Rivers SD 590 69.1
15 2010 Matt Ryan ATL 709 68.6
16 2010 Aaron Rodgers GB 627 67.9
17 2009 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 652 67.3
18 2010 Michael Vick PHI 547 66.6
19 2008 Kurt Warner ARI 702 66.5
20 2010 Drew Brees NO 760 65.9

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[url=http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6835090/nfl-total-quarterback-rating-shifts-way-see-position]NFL - Total Quarterback Rating shifts the way we see the position - ESPN[/url]

"QBR is scaled from 0 to 100, with 50 representing league-average performance. For a single game, a rating in the 90s is terrific; last year, Vick's six-TD Monday night symphony against the Redskins topped the charts at 99.8. For a season, any QBR above 65 is Pro Bowl-caliber, and Tom Brady led all starters with a 76.0 QBR in 2010."

:doh:

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

ErenCur Eren Cur
I was interested in espn's TQBR until I heard Trent Dilfer helped developed it.... #notago
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=SmootSmack;818181]They'll definitely use this. I don't really know if they'll just wipe away the traditional QB rating system for the telecasts. My guess is at least initially it may be a little of both to show the difference

Don't think they'd necessarily lobby the NFL to adopt this stat, but are encouraging other media to feel free to use it. Hence the name Total Quarterback Rating, not ESPN Total Quarterback Rating[/quote]

Yeah that's my feeling as well -- one really interesting development, according to what I've read about it, is that you can't have a 'perfect' quarterback rating according to the new system whereas in the old system, people could finish with 158.3 ratings i.e. perfect games.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;820628]ErenCur Eren Cur
I was interested in espn's TQBR until I heard Trent Dilfer helped developed it.... #notago
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply[/quote]

Trent Dilfer actually mentioned on NFL Live not to say that he had a hand in it -- verbatim, "If people know I was involved, they wouldn't respect it"

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=rbanerjee23;820647]Trent Dilfer actually mentioned on NFL Live not to say that he had a hand in it -- verbatim, "If people know I was involved, they wouldn't respect it"[/quote]

Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

Yeah, they'll definitely need to look at game tape so overall it's a more exhaustive process -- I couldn't care less though, you can get a sense of how a player is playing in the game from the stats but if you really want to analyze how well a guy played (i.e. get his TQBR), then a 1-2 day delay is totally understandable.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;820652]Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.[/quote]My only problem with the splitting up credit thing has to do with it's in-game purpose. If you're going to drop a players single game TQBR in the middle of a football broadcast, the context for that is going to be nearly impossible to have correct during the broadcast.

The denominator for this stat (EPA) is strong. But an EPA rate stat would be about 1,000 times more simple and more predictive than TQBR. And more than that, it was easily available four years ago on the internet. So if ESPN can't use TQBR as a replacement for passer rating during it's broadcasts, then it has no practical value.

To have value, TQBR must flat replace passer rating during all broadcasts to the point where we, as fans, will look at networks like Fox and CBS and be embarrassed to be fed passer rating during a live broadcast.

[QUOTE=GTripp0012;820790]My only problem with the splitting up credit thing has to do with it's in-game purpose. If you're going to drop a players single game TQBR in the middle of a football broadcast, the context for that is going to be nearly impossible to have correct during the broadcast.

The denominator for this stat (EPA) is strong. But an EPA rate stat would be about 1,000 times more simple and more predictive than TQBR. And more than that, it was easily available four years ago on the internet. So if ESPN can't use TQBR as a replacement for passer rating during it's broadcasts, then it has no practical value.

To have value, TQBR must flat replace passer rating during all broadcasts to the point where we, as fans, will look at networks like Fox and CBS and be embarrassed to be fed passer rating during a live broadcast.[/QUOTE]

It will replace passer rating in the broadcasts.

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

[quote=SmootSmack;820792]It will replace passer rating in the broadcasts.[/quote]On a single game basis as well? Do you know if the single game baseline is going to differ in any way from the baseline for a season?

Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat
 

The hidden thing that TQBR inadvertently does is that its also going to give an EPA component for the other players involved in the play on offense (and hopefully someday, defense). Whereas we already have a ton of useful ways to measure quarterback play (and have for nearly a decade), I really think that the film analysis component of TQBR can provide accurate conclusions about the performance of other players on offense from a statistical perspective.

[QUOTE=GTripp0012;820794]On a single game basis as well? Do you know if the single game baseline is going to differ in any way from the baseline for a season?[/QUOTE]

It's Saturday, your question requires my weekday brain

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I'm not watching any of the games right now (still at work), but the gamecasts/box scores on ESPN are not using the new QB stat. Is this regular season only?

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I believe this stat is an overall barometer for the value that the QB has for each and every play to his team. It does seem that it (TQBR) lowers the value for the "moving the chains" type passes, the short 5 yard slants called on an audible, where one could be broken for a huge gain. One thing that this new system would have a hard time doing is adjusting stats based on game situations during the current game. How can this system adjust the ratings to involve audibles or in game decisions made by a quarterback that positively affect other players performances. It seems that this rating would give a majority of the "responsibility points" to the guy on the other end of the pass who takes a short one for a big gain. Is there a "watered down" version that they will use during in game broadcasts so that they can give an overall description on the value of the quarterbacks play for that given game? I dont see a very accurate way that the TQBR can be accurately projected during in game broadcasts, as the rating depends heavily on situational statistics, and you possibly wouldnt know if a situation, or the stats during a given situation, were inflated at any point during a game, until late in the game, or afterwards.

Seems like a hard rating to gauge in "real time". My thought is there should be a watered down, less situational adjusted version to use for broadcasts, and then release the "TQBR" for each quarterback that played the previous day on Sportscenter weekly after every football week. Kinda like how everyone waits for each specific sites "Power Rankings", Sportscenter could incorporate this into something that is released on Tuesday that everyone is looking forward to. "SC is releasing the TQBRs today, lets see how so and so REALLY fared this week......" type thing.