Week 3 TQBR Rankings
 

[url=http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7020881/nfl-week-3-total-qbr-season-leaders]NFL - Week 3 Total QBR Season Leaders - ESPN[/url]

I'm linking to this now because there's now three weeks of data points so theres some semblance of meaning to the numbers. The sample is pretty small, but most QBs are approaching or have passed 125 dropbacks, and they've done it vs three different opponents, so the numbers have some meaning.

The top of the list is interesting, but the names at the bottom are more interesting. Rivers in particular is shocking, but Vick/Ryan/Sanchez are all struggling this year. And Bradford has been preposterously ineffective (though his teammates are responsible for plenty of suck).

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Grossman has finally crashed back into average land.

More interestingly, his QBR is actually HIGHER this week than last, but I think it's undebateable that he had a MUCH crappier game this week, and his 23.3 TQBR sure as hell showed that.

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Rex sucked last night but I hate this rating system

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[quote=skinsfaninok;841427]Rex sucked last night but I hate this rating system[/quote]

The rankings make a helluva lot of more sense than what the old QBR is showing. Fitzpatrick and Brady are CLEARLY outdoing everyone else in the league and the old QBR is not doing them any justice.

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I think the Total QBR is as close as we can get to a coaches 'grade'. (Although I still think they're being too hard on QBs that have limited pass protection.)

I just wish there was a way to be more open about the process.

But, I understand they might feel the need to hold back some of their method but I think it would help the stat gain more popularity.

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This thing is too open to opinion. I think you lose too much in translation, and with 4 different people, you get 4 different ratings. I just think that the regular Quarterback rating is fine. I mean, if your QB had a game of over 80, he did well. If its 95 or over, he did damn well. and if its over 110, then he rocked the shit.

Like I said, this doesnt take into account responsibility for sacks, and for fumbles, two of the biggest things a quarterback does other than throw and make reads. Just a little too unsure of the whole process in which they get the numbers. The regular rating works for me, its an easy overall barometer, and you dont have to wait a full day so a panel can "look through the tape and make their determinations." The old rating is not perfect by any stretch, but I think I like it a little better, maybe its the comfort factor and Im just not used to the QBR, but something is telling me that I'll prefer the old tried and true method over this new one when it comes down to it. Its nice to have another gauge, but I prefer the old one.

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[quote=Mechanix544;841682]This thing is too open to opinion. I think you lose too much in translation, and with 4 different people, you get 4 different ratings. I just think that the regular Quarterback rating is fine. I mean, if your QB had a game of over 80, he did well. If its 95 or over, he did damn well. and if its over 110, then he rocked the shit.

Like I said, this doesnt take into account responsibility for sacks, and for fumbles, two of the biggest things a quarterback does other than throw and make reads. Just a little too unsure of the whole process in which they get the numbers. The regular rating works for me, its an easy overall barometer, and you dont have to wait a full day so a panel can "look through the tape and make their determinations." The old rating is not perfect by any stretch, but I think I like it a little better, maybe its the comfort factor and Im just not used to the QBR, but something is telling me that I'll prefer the old tried and true method over this new one when it comes down to it. Its nice to have another gauge, but I prefer the old one.[/quote]
The old passer rating is turrible and in need of its own Lucas Critique. Four factors go into its calculation. Completion %, Yards/att, TD/att, and INT/att. It ignores a shitload of data. Actually, once you think about it, it's basically fantasy football scoring except it has completion percentage and the weights are different for each category.

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[quote]
I just think that the regular Quarterback rating is fine. I mean, if your QB had a game of over 80, he did well. If its 95 or over, he did damn well. and if its over 110, then he rocked the shit.[/quote]

This made me want to look up single season QB ratings throughout the history of the team.

I know the "old" QB rating is un-sexy and inaccurate now that we have the ESPN TQBR, but since I can't apply a TQBR formula to the data from Pro-football-reference I can't see where Sexy Rexy stacks up compared to past Redskins QBs.

But if we look at single-season QB Ratings for all Washington QB's, the top 25 list looks like this:


[code] # Name Year Rate Age G GS
01 Sammy Baugh 1945 109.9 31 08 08
02 Mark Rypien 1991* 97.9 29 16 16
03 Joe Theismann 1983* 97.0 34 16 16
04 Sonny Jurgensen 1974 94.5 40 14 04
05 Sammy Baugh 1947 92.0 33 12 01
06 Sonny Jurgensen 1970 91.5 36 14 14
07 Joe Theismann 1982* 91.3 33 09 09
08 Brad Johnson 1999* 90.0 31 16 16
09 Mark Rypien 1989* 88.1 27 14 14
10 Sonny Jurgensen 1967* 87.3 33 14 14
11 Joe Theismann 1984 86.6 35 16 16
12 Mark Brunell 2006 86.5 36 10 09
13 Jason Campbell 2009 86.4 28 16 16
14 Rex Grossman 2011 86.4 31 03 03
15 Eddie LeBaron 1957* 86.1 27 12 12
16 Frank Filchock 1944 86.0 28 10 06
17 Mark Brunell 2005 85.9 35 16 15
18 Sonny Jurgensen 1969* 85.4 35 14 14
19 Sonny Jurgensen 1964* 85.4 30 14 14
20 Mark Rypien 1988 85.2 26 09 06
21 Billy Kilmer 1972* 84.8 33 12 10
22 Sonny Jurgensen 1966* 84.5 32 14 14
23 Jason Campbell 2008 84.3 27 16 16
24 Joe Theismann 1979 83.9 30 16 16
25 Billy Kilmer 1974 83.5 35 11 10

[/code]Asterisks represent Pro Bowl seasons.

So we've had three players in history who garnered a 95+ passer rating over a single season. According to PFR, there have been 108 players in league history to do finish the season with a 95 or better.

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[quote=Mechanix544;841682]This thing is too open to opinion. I think you lose too much in translation, and with 4 different people, you get 4 different ratings.[/quote]

I don't think that is true.
I'm sure there are written parameters for grading what they wee.

Heck, I've graded the same game as a friend of mine.
Without ever consulting the parameters before hand.
Our breakdown of what we saw on the film was almost the same.
I trust that ESPN takes the stat seriously enough to be football honest.

My main problem with the old QBR all stats were created equal.
A QB could fumble and throw a pick 2 get his team down by 2 scores.
He might put up good stats via the old QBR because he might hit a couple of meaningless touchdowns against prevent but the fact that his own poor play to start the game was the reason he accumulated the stats in the first place is lost.

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How are Fitz and Brady beating out A.ROD?

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and JC had like 150 passing yards SMH

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[quote=skinsfaninok;841709]and JC had like 150 passing yards SMH[/quote]

This is for the entire season. JC is being propped up by his week 2 performance.

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I understand the system and everything but sometimes I think ESPN goes too far w things

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[quote=skinsfaninok;841715]I understand the system and everything but sometimes I think ESPN goes too far w things[/quote]
Going by what I saw in the first 3 quarters of the Raidahs game, JC certainly was doing around 50-60ish.
For most of the game, he was "quietly invisible", aka not screwing things up. He added a little spice to help move the chains with some timely passes. He also managed to draw penalties against Antonio Cromartie 4 times, and even blocked for Run Dmac.

Of course, the stat isn't going to capture everything, i.e, the godawful deep ball he has was still evident as ever.

ESPN's stat, even if it's not completely accurate, puts focus back on watching the damn games rather than employing heuristics that ignore a ton of data.

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[url=http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7050004/nfl-week-4-total-qbr-leaders]NFL - Week 4 Total QBR Leaders - ESPN[/url]
[url=http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7050006/nfl-week-4-total-qbr-season-leaders]NFL - Week 4 Total QBR Season Leaders - ESPN[/url]

Rodgers has surged back to the top.

It seems like this stat may overstate the "goodness" of a performance when the sample size is small.

How about that Matt Hasslebeck. Who knew he would revive his career down there in Tennessee

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^Eli and Schaub really have surged up the charts

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Yeah Matt Hasselbeck has really suprised me so far. The Titans are looking good with him at qb.

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surprise, grossman is in the middle at 46.9... average.

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[quote=That Guy;844395]surprise, grossman is in the middle at 46.9... average.[/quote]

And a bigger surprise? Campbell is statistically in the top 10, yet nobody thinks he's the reason the Raiders have won or lost any of their games.

Which is pretty much what I thought while he was here.

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grossman is finally average! yay!

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Matt Hasselbeck doing his best late-career Boomer Esiason impression.

Our QB next season, Chad Henne, still ranks in the top ten despite having to run daycare for Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall. But he's injured now, which I guess just drops the price.

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Not a big fan of any stats that come from a TV network. I understand the work that's being done and the reasoning behind it. But it's just another tool to use in a player evaluation and has too many subjective areas in it.

I like the old QB rating, just give me the raw numbers, no analysis. I can do that myself by looking at the game. To me this is a case of statistical analysis gone wild, this stuff may work for baseball which has far less variables, even to a degree in basketball. But far too many variables to accurately account for in football.

I don't need a stat to tell me that I'd rather have Elway, Unitas, Starr or Baugh under center for me rather than Pennington, Culpepper, Schaub or Flacco.

What source are you a fan of then for stats?

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Traditional QB rating of Shanahan coached QB's only means so much. With Shanahan you're going to have a lot of guys that are throwing under 60% due to the emphasis of trying to push the ball down field and with the current system a huge emphasis is placed on completion percentage. John Elway for example frequently was rated in the high 80's under Shanahan. Usually if the QB is rated in the high 80's that's a good sign in this system.

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[quote=dgack;844537]And a bigger surprise? Campbell is statistically in the top 10, yet nobody thinks he's the reason the Raiders have won or lost any of their games.

Which is pretty much what I thought while he was here.[/quote]Its not really a surprise to some.
And some people do think Campbell is a key part of the Raiders success.

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[quote=Dirtbag59;844859]Traditional QB rating of Shanahan coached QB's only means so much. With Shanahan you're going to have a lot of guys that are throwing under 60% due to the emphasis of trying to push the ball down field and with the current system a huge emphasis is placed on completion percentage. John Elway for example frequently was rated in the high 80's under Shanahan. Usually if the QB is rated in the high 80's that's a good sign in this system.[/quote]But this isn't Mike Shanahan's version of the Denver WCO this is Houston and Kyle's variant.
Kyle's offense has greater emphasis on effciency in the passing game.
If we're looking for the statistical signs of the offense running at a high level think Matt Schaub not John Elway.

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StatLine Check:
PC -- PA -- YD -- % -- YPC -- TD -- LONG -- INT FUM.RATING
79 129..........1,021.....61.2.....7.92.....6..........61..........3.....1.....91.9

83 143............989......58.0.....6.92.....6..........40..........5.....2.....78.7

99 152..........1,273.....65.1.....8.38.....7..........77..........5.....3.....92.9

80 125..........1,066.....64.0.....8.53.....8....... 74..........2.....2.....105.6

That is the 4 NFCE QBs, anyone care to rank fill in the names? (ours ain't at the top) but i did think this was interesting to compare with out the names assoc.

edit: i hate trying to format tables on this ugh

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[quote=dgack;841689]This made me want to look up single season QB ratings throughout the history of the team.

I know the "old" QB rating is un-sexy and inaccurate now that we have the ESPN TQBR, but since I can't apply a TQBR formula to the data from Pro-football-reference I can't see where Sexy Rexy stacks up compared to past Redskins QBs.

But if we look at single-season QB Ratings for all Washington QB's, the top 25 list looks like this:


[code] # Name Year Rate Age G GS
01 Sammy Baugh 1945 109.9 31 08 08
02 Mark Rypien 1991* 97.9 29 16 16
03 Joe Theismann 1983* 97.0 34 16 16
04 Sonny Jurgensen 1974 94.5 40 14 04
05 Sammy Baugh 1947 92.0 33 12 01
06 Sonny Jurgensen 1970 91.5 36 14 14
07 Joe Theismann 1982* 91.3 33 09 09
08 Brad Johnson 1999* 90.0 31 16 16
09 Mark Rypien 1989* 88.1 27 14 14
10 Sonny Jurgensen 1967* 87.3 33 14 14
11 Joe Theismann 1984 86.6 35 16 16
12 Mark Brunell 2006 86.5 36 10 09
13 Jason Campbell 2009 86.4 28 16 16
14 Rex Grossman 2011 86.4 31 03 03
15 Eddie LeBaron 1957* 86.1 27 12 12
16 Frank Filchock 1944 86.0 28 10 06
17 Mark Brunell 2005 85.9 35 16 15
18 Sonny Jurgensen 1969* 85.4 35 14 14
19 Sonny Jurgensen 1964* 85.4 30 14 14
20 Mark Rypien 1988 85.2 26 09 06
21 Billy Kilmer 1972* 84.8 33 12 10
22 Sonny Jurgensen 1966* 84.5 32 14 14
23 Jason Campbell 2008 84.3 27 16 16
24 Joe Theismann 1979 83.9 30 16 16
25 Billy Kilmer 1974 83.5 35 11 10

[/code]Asterisks represent Pro Bowl seasons.

So we've had three players in history who garnered a 95+ passer rating over a single season. According to PFR, there have been 108 players in league history to do finish the season with a 95 or better.[/quote]


Whoa, how did you do that? Just type [code][/code']?

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[quote=CRedskinsRule;844899]StatLine Check:
PC -- PA -- YD -- % -- YPC -- TD -- LONG -- INT FUM.RATING
79 129..........1,021.....61.2.....7.92.....6..........61..........3.....1.....91.9

83 143............989......58.0.....6.92.....6..........40..........5.....2.....78.7

99 152..........1,273.....65.1.....8.38.....7..........77..........5.....3.....92.9

80 125..........1,066.....64.0.....8.53.....8....... 74..........2.....2.....105.6

That is the 4 NFCE QBs, anyone care to rank fill in the names? (ours ain't at the top) but i did think this was interesting to compare with out the names assoc.

edit: i hate trying to format tables on this ugh[/quote]

Romo
Rex
Eli
Vick

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......and which one has a super bowl ring?

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[quote=30gut;844929]Romo
Rex
Eli
Vick[/quote]

nope

StatLine Check:
PC -- PA -- YD -- % -- YPC -- TD -- LONG -- INT FUM.RATING
Vick
79 129..........1,021.....61.2.....7.92.....6........ ..61..........3.....1.....91.9
Rex
83 143............989......58.0.....6.92.....6....... ...40..........5.....2.....78.7
Romo
99 152..........1,273.....65.1.....8.38.....7........ ..77..........5.....3.....92.9
Eli:
80 125..........1,066.....64.0.....8.53.....8....... 74..........2.....2.....105.6
...

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[quote=Giantone;844931]......and which one has a super bowl ring?[/quote]

and this matters for this season, why?

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[quote=Giantone;844931]......and which one has a super bowl ring?[/quote]

I didn't know SB rings were part of the TBQR rankings. Maybe Rex can get a half a point for playing in a SB?

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[quote=Giantone;844931]......and which one has a super bowl ring?[/quote]

David Tyree has the same Super Bowl ring but certainly you would not name him as a top receiver this year, would you?

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[quote=Lotus;844950]David Tyree has the same Super Bowl ring but certainly you would not name him as a top receiver this year, would you?[/quote]


YOU were talking about TOP QB's this year correct?

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[quote=Giantone;845089]YOU were talking about TOP QB's this year correct?[/quote]

Yep and we are talking about top QBs this year based on their statistics this year and not past glory.

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[quote=CRedskinsRule;844948]and this matters for this season, why?[/quote]

It matters anytime people bring out useless stats to prove a point and forget the most important one...does he(the QB) win.

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[quote=Ruhskins;844949]I didn't know SB rings were part of the TBQR rankings. Maybe Rex can get a half a point for playing in a SB?[/quote]

.....no.


look Vick was super man....last year,Romo.....great stats till he hits the playoffs,Rex.....well. Eli when he's on he is one of the best but....when he's bad........it's ugly. TBQR means ....nothing,look you guys think Rex is king ...why, becuase you are WINNING and that is the only stat that matters.

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[quote=Giantone;845104].....no.


look Vick was super man....last year,Romo.....great stats till he hits the playoffs,Rex.....well. Eli when he's on he is one of the best but....when he's bad........it's ugly. TBQR means ....nothing,look you guys think Rex is king ...why, becuase you are WINNING and that is the only stat that matters.[/quote]

TQBR is one of the better metrics that factors wins, fourth quarter comebacks and pivotal plays. This isn't your father's QB Rating, therefore it most definitely matters in this discussion.

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[quote=Giantone;845104].....no.


look Vick was super man....last year,Romo.....great stats till he hits the playoffs,Rex.....well. Eli when he's on he is one of the best but....when he's bad........it's ugly. TBQR means ....nothing,look [B]you guys think Rex is king[/B] ...why, becuase you are WINNING and that is the only stat that matters.[/quote]

Who thinks that? I don't know anyone who thinks that.