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sportscurmudgeon 03-23-2004 04:10 PM

Vegas Super Bowl Odds
If you like the Skins to win the Super Bowl next year, you can get odds between 18-1 and 22-1 in various sports books in Vegas as of last weekend. If that seems like a big difference to you, it isn't. I saw the odds on the Bills as Super Bowl champs next year range from 30-1 at one book to 55-1 at another one.

The favorite for the Super Bowl is New England at 6-1 and that is not unusual for the previous champ to be the favorite this early in the cycle.

NFC East teams odds:

Dallas 18-1
NY 50-1
Philly 12-1
Wash 18-1

Longest shots on the board at the moment:

San Diego 100-1
Houston 100-1
Detroit 100-1
Arizona 150-1

I talked with the sports book manager at one of the prominent Sports Books in Vegas and asked him about the odds. He said that there are four teams in the NFL whose fans ALWAYS bet heavily on them in Super Bowl Futures and so the books ALWAYS put the odds lower than they actually think they should be in case the team does win out. Those 4 teams are:

Dallas Cowboys (currently at 18-1)
Oakland Raiders (currently at 40-1)
Miami Dolphins (currently at 20-1)
Washington Redskins (currently at 18-1)

He said that every time any one of these teams signs a name player in the off season, they'll drop the odds knowing there will be an influx of money. The Raiders were at 50-1 on thursday but they signed Warren Sapp and the odds went to 40-1 in no time flat not because they think Sapp will bring them the Super Bowl but because they know that Raider fans will be dropping money based on that signing. He said that did that for the Skins with Brunell and then with the Portis/Bailey trade and the Washington signing. He said that he would want at least 75-1 to bet on the Raiders and about 40-1 to bet on the Skins next year.

Interesting insight from the guy who runs the operation...

MTK 03-23-2004 04:14 PM

interesting stuff sports, thanks for the info

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