Check out this math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

Went to washingtonPost.com and found a schedule with all the team rankings by category. [url="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FBN_NFL_TEAM_RANKINGS_MEGAA?SITE=DCWAP2&SECTION=MEGASPORTS&TEMPLATE=washingtonpost.com-stats-nfl.txt"]http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FBN_NFL_TEAM_RANKINGS_MEGAA?SITE=DCWAP2&SECTION=MEGASPORTS&TEMPLATE=washingtonpost.com-stats-nfl.txt[/url]


They had the teams arranged alphabettically, so of course our skins were last. However I noticed the skins were consistently low in each category.

So, being an accounting Geek, I imported the data into excel, added up the sum of the categories (excluding totals, or else it would be redundant), and resorted the data with the lowest being best (that is it is better to be 1st than 31st, obviously).

What you get is a summary ranking of teams as follows.

Notice who is at the top.

Notice how low the Giants and Eagles are:












[b][font=Arial][size=2][center]Rank-Team-Total of Rankings[/b]




[/size][/font][font=Arial][size=2]1[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#800080]Washington Redskins[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]31[/font]


[font=Arial][size=2]2[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]36[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]3[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Seattle Seahawks[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]41[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]4[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Dallas Cowboys[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]44[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]5[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Indianapolis Colts[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]44[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]6[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Baltimore Ravens[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]50[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]7[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Chicago Bears[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]54[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]8[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Pittsburgh Steelers[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]55[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]9[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Cincinnati Bengals[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]57[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]10[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Tennessee Titans[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]58[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]11[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Denver Broncos[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]58[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]12[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Kansas City Chiefs[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]59[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]13[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]San Diego Chargers[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]59[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]14[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]New Orleans Saints[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]61[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]15[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Green Bay Packers[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]63[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]16[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Jacksonville Jaguars[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]63[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]17[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#800080]Philadelphia Eagles[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]65[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]18[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Arizona Cardinals[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]66[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]19[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Carolina Panthers[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]69[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]20[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]St. Louis Rams[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]72[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]21[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Miami Dolphins[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]72[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]22[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Atlanta Falcons[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]72[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]23[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Oakland Raiders[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]73[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]24[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Detroit Lions[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]73[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]25[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Buffalo Bills[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]77[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]26[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]New England Patriots[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]78[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]27[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]New York Giants[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]82[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]28[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Minnesota Vikings[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]82[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]29[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]New York Jets[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]89[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]30[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Houston Texans[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]99[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]31[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]Cleveland Browns[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]100[/font]
[font=Arial][size=2]32[/size][/font][u][font=Arial][size=2][color=#0000ff]San Francisco 49ers[/u][/color][/size][/font][font=univers]108[/font]



[/center]














Hope you find this interesting.

Or maybe not.

Jim

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

Nice job Jgalecpa. :biggthump The way the rankings should be. N.E maybe should be ranked higher but otherwise it's about right on.Especially the #1 ranked team! :lol:

:httr:

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

Any power rankings that have the cowturds above the colts is a weeee bit off.

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

[QUOTE=Hijinx]Any power rankings that have the cowturds above the colts is a weeee bit off.[/QUOTE]

In general, I would agree.

Jgale

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

Reminds me of the BCS. lol

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

It all looked good. That is until I saw the Ravens at 6...

Still, anytime the Skins are #1 I'm happy.

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

Fox is a little more sane:

[url]http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5023840[/url]

Redskins at 7.

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

top 5 and bottom 5 look good but looking at ravens, bears, titans from 6-10 is a little off wack. I love these type of statistics though. It is a good representation of how good a team is.

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

I'm NOT an accounting nerd...but if you told me that we were #2 overall on offense and #4 on defense, I could tell you that we were #1 overall in the league.

On a side note, we should be a whole lot better ranking-wise on defense; however, we've allowed some BS long runs (like at the end of the 49ers game) that dropped us to 15th. If you took out that run and the two lucky runs that Tatum Bell had, we'd be in the top 5 for rushing defense. BS.

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

[QUOTE=skin4Life28]Reminds me of the BCS. lol[/QUOTE]

Actually, after I did it, it even reminded me of the BCS.

BTW, I prefer accounting geek to accounting nerd.

Either one beats what the wife calls me.

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

[QUOTE=jgalecpa]

Either one beats what the wife calls me.[/QUOTE]and what might that be

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

[QUOTE=aehs77]and what might that be[/QUOTE]

"You short, arrogant little prick".

What makes me mad is I'm not that short.

Jim

Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!
 

from the article... basically saying that fumbles tend to even out, recovery is purely dumb luck, and the redskins have had bad luck recovering on both offense (2 of 6) and defense (2 of 9) so far this season.

"[b]Fumble recoveries are random[/b]

OK, so you read the description at the top about how we adjust the raw stats. You saw the bit about strength of schedule and thought, "Hey, that makes sense." But what on earth do we mean by "adjusting to cancel out the effect of luck on fumble recovery?" Isn't turnover margin an important part of football?

Yes, it is. Turnovers are hugely important, and there is a lot of skill involved in picking off a pass or stripping the ball from an opponent. But there is virtually no skill involved in being the last person to hold the ball at the bottom of the pile when the refs get down there. If you don't believe me, ask Edgerrin James and Corey Ivy.

We wrote about this in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, using New Orleans as an example. Over the past four seasons, Aaron Brooks fumbled the ball 13, 11, 14 and 13 times. But his official count of fumbles according to the league — i.e., fumbles lost to the defense — went 2, 5, 11, and 2. The quarterback who lost only two fumbles in 2004 didn't suddenly learn to hold on to the ball. He's the same guy as the year before, just with better luck.

And this year, it reversed again. The New Orleans Saints have fumbled the ball on offense seven times this season (four by Brooks) and the defense has recovered every single one. That's just dumb luck, but it is game-changing dumb luck. Since roughly half of fumbles are recovered by the defense, that's three or four times New Orleans has turned the ball over based on random chance.

I know, some of you are saying that the Saints are just an exception, that fumble recovery is a real skill, that certain coaches teach their players to pounce on the ball. Let's look at the other offenses that led the league last year in percentage of fumbles recovered.

Last year, four offenses recovered at least 60 percent of their fumbles: the Jets, Giants, Cardinals and Chargers. This year the Giants have recovered two of seven, the Cardinals three of eight, and the Chargers one of four. Only the Jets have still recovered more fumbles than they've lost, although not for lack of trying: after fumbling just 13 times last year, the Jets have already fumbled 16 times on offense this year.

How about defenses? The Bears recovered the highest percentage of opposition fumbles in 2004, but this year they've recovered just two of six. Meanwhile the Eagles, who only recovered 29 percent of opposition fumbles last year, have recovered five of nine this year. The Broncos only recovered seven of 17 opposition fumbles last year but already have seven fumble recoveries this season with just 10 tries.

What does this mean for our ratings? It means that a team with a particularly good record of fumble recoveries could come back to earth. That brings us to the Atlanta Falcons, who after last night have stripped the ball 10 times and recovered an astonishing nine of them. That's been a big part of their 5-2 record, and there's no reason to believe it will continue. Other lucky defenses include the Panthers (8 of 9), the Giants (8 of 9) and the 49ers (5 of 5). Unlucky defenses include the Redskins (2 of 9) and Seahawks (1 of 9).

The Falcons have had strong luck on offense too, recovering five fumbles out of seven. (Let's be honest, Michael Vick doesn't have some magic ability to will the ball into the arms of Barry Stokes.) No offense has been as unlucky as New Orleans — let's be honest, this season no team has been as unlucky as New Orleans in any conceivable fashion — but other teams with poor fumble recovery luck on offense include the Patriots (1 of 5), the Steelers (1 of 5) the Eagles (1 of 5), and — here they are again — the Redskins (2 of 6)."