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Old 04-28-2006, 03:45 PM   #16
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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Originally Posted by PSUSkinsFan21
Yah, but that's a pretty tough standard Riggo. I mean in the history of the NFL, how my quarterbacks have actually won a super bowl? Maybe 30 or so? Certainly you wouldn't argue that guys like Peyton and Marino and Carson Palmer were bad first round picks, would you?
No, I never said anything like that.

Let me try and explain it like this....

Here is a list of the 37 QBs drafted in the first round (including supplemental because the cost is the same) from 1986 to 2002.

The numbers listed are QB taken, Round, Pick, Overall Pick:
2002
1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane
2001
1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
2000
1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall
1999
1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky
2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse
3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon
4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida
5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA
1998
1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee
2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State
1997
1 1 26 26 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers Virginia Tech
1996
1 2 12 42 Tony Banks Rams Michigan State
1995
1 1 3 3 Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State
2 1 5 5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State
1994
1 1 3 3 Heath Shuler Redskins Tennessee
2 1 6 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers Fresno State
1993
1 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots Washington State
2 1 2 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks Notre Dame
1992s
1 1 0 0 Dave Brown Giants Duke
1992
1 1 6 6 David Klingler Bengals Houston
2 1 25 25 Tommy Maddox Broncos UCLA
1991
1 1 16 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks San Diego State
2 1 24 24 Todd Marinovich Raiders USC
1990
1 1 1 1 Jeff George Colts Illinois
2 1 7 7 Andre Ware Lions Houston
1989s
1 1 0 0 Steve Walsh Cowboys Miami (FL)
2 1 0 0 Timm Rosenbach Cardinals Washington State
1989
1 1 1 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys UCLA
1988
1 3 13 68 Tom Tupa Cardinals Ohio State
1987
1 1 1 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers Miami (FL)
2 1 6 6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals Colorado State
3 1 13 13 Chris Miller Falcons Oregon
4 1 26 26 Jim Harbaugh Bears Michigan
1986
1 1 3 3 Jim Everett Oilers Purdue
2 1 12 12 Chuck Long Lions Iowa

Of those, I'd argue that in hindsite only 8 or 9 were worth the expense of a 1st round pick (which ones, that's subjective, but I think you can find 30 that you can argue were probably not the best use of the pick).

In other words, at least 3 out of 4 times maybe even 4 out of 5 times, those 1st round picks didn't provide good value. I am saying that those who swear by the conventional wisdom that you must follow NE & PIT by building through the draft at the QB position are banking on luck and ignoring the history.
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Old 04-28-2006, 03:53 PM   #17
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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Originally Posted by RiggoRules
An interesting factoid I saw here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12389000/
1st round QBs tend to go to bad teams. look at how many #1 overall picks go on to win superbowls... its almost 0, and most who do, do it with other teams after their rookie contracts expire. Does that mean the #1 overall picks all suck? or just the teams that are taking them?

I'd never draft QBs, RBs, or LBs in the first round, but i'm not a GM. that said, bad teams hurt.

tommy maddox went to the superbowl, dilfer, bledsoe, mcnair, collins, mcnabb did too. that's more than just ben.
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Old 04-28-2006, 04:34 PM   #18
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

I understand what you're saying Riggo, and I agree with you that looking at that list certainly the majority end up being busts. I just took issue with the SuperBowl winning QB stat. I don't think that stat tells the whole story.

That Guy makes a great point too.....good teams with good QBs don't usually draft a QB in the first round......so a lot of these guys are put behind the 8-ball from the start (ala Carr, Harrington, Couch, Leaf, etc.).

I guess this whole discussion really needs a comparison. If we look back at the first rounders of any given position, how many really end up providing solid value? Which position typically performs the best and why? I'd like to see a comprehensive study.....it'd be interesting.
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Old 04-28-2006, 04:45 PM   #19
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

If I'm a GM, theres nothing I won't do if a situation dictates it. That said here are some of my favorite (from a hilarity perspective) selections of first round QBs over the last 5 or so years.

2005-Packers take Aaron Rodgers without doing their homework on him
2004-Bills trade up, giving up their 2005 first rounder for JP Losman
2004-The Chargers work out a trade for Philip Rivers and picks, when they could have easily had the higher rated prospect, Roethlisberger
2003-Kyle Boller.
2002-Joey Harrington goes 3rd overall despite a promising start to Mike McMahon's career. Millen destroys two careers with one pick.
1999-Who graded this draft?

1999 excluded, the interesting thing about these decisions is that everyone knew they were mistakes at the time they were picked. You could make a good case for Rodgers having great value, but the Packers didn't really research that guy, so how can they justify drafting him?

With this draft, what mistake can you realistically make with the QBs here? The only potential mistake I see is someone trading up into the bottom of the first to take a Charlie Whitehurst or a Kellen Clemens, some guy with a third round grade.
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Old 04-28-2006, 04:46 PM   #20
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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Originally Posted by PSUSkinsFan21
I guess this whole discussion really needs a comparison. If we look back at the first rounders of any given position, how many really end up providing solid value? Which position typically performs the best and why? I'd like to see a comprehensive study.....it'd be interesting.
my guess would be OL and DB... cause its similar to what you do in college. QBs/RBs/WRs can get stuc in gimmick offenses which don't resemble what they'll be doing in the NFL.
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Old 04-28-2006, 04:50 PM   #21
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012
With this draft, what mistake can you realistically make with the QBs here? The only potential mistake I see is someone trading up into the bottom of the first to take a Charlie Whitehurst or a Kellen Clemens, some guy with a third round grade.
yeah, as a 5th round rating, whitehurst is a steal, but now he and kellens have gotten hyped to the point that they're going to both go a round before they really should.

whitehurst has GREAT potential, but sometimes he looked terrible, so you don't really know what you're going to get.
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Old 04-28-2006, 05:01 PM   #22
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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my guess would be OL and DB... cause its similar to what you do in college. QBs/RBs/WRs can get stuc in gimmick offenses which don't resemble what they'll be doing in the NFL.
I think I'm inclined to agree......and I'd probably add DT to that too. Of course there's a lot more positions for Olinemen, so the fact that somebody gets a starter from a first round OL pick probably shouldn't be surprising. Then again, there's always those huge OT busts too. What was that guy the Packers picked years back? And how has Gallery done so far?
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Old 04-28-2006, 05:22 PM   #23
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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Old 04-28-2006, 05:30 PM   #24
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

There it is........just couldn't think of his name........and too lazy to look it up.
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Old 04-28-2006, 06:06 PM   #25
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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I think I'm inclined to agree......and I'd probably add DT to that too. Of course there's a lot more positions for Olinemen, so the fact that somebody gets a starter from a first round OL pick probably shouldn't be surprising. Then again, there's always those huge OT busts too. What was that guy the Packers picked years back? And how has Gallery done so far?
gallery's been okay... though he got moved to RT. judging him on his first year is a bit too early though. He's still starting though and will be a starter somewhere for years to come. so while he might not be a superstar, its hard to call a guy starting 16 games a year a bust.

OTs can be reaches though. most 1st round TEs, OGs, Cs tend to be starters for years, just because they aren't usually picked in the 1st unless they're REALLY good.
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Old 04-29-2006, 01:36 AM   #26
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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I collected some single season stats from the post Rypien era from some of the QBs who played here. Comparing Brunell's stats from 2005 the rest of these guys, I see many similarities. ....


All of these guys (except Shuler) went on to have considerable success other places. Gannon and Green have been pro bowlers many a time, and Johnson won a SB. Brunell, of course, had considerable success in Jacksonville, before coming over here.

Here's the big question: with all the journeymen who came through here with considerable success, why were none of them ever retained through long term contract.
First, my compliments, Gtripp, on your well researched question.

I don't think we have to explain why Heath Schuler did not last here. But, he was part of the Redskins dream draft. The plan was to have Schuler throwing passes to scoring threats Desmond Howard and Michael Westbrook. You are maybe too young to remember this, but Schuler, Howard and Westbrook were highly regarded college players. People spoke of them the way they talk about Bush, Lienert and Young today. Important to remember that the draft is a great way to build your team, when it works. But it works best when you have time to develop young players. In today's free agency period, you are less likely to keep your stars, especially if they are skill players. It makes more sense to draft linemen and pick up skill players through free agency.

Gus Frerotte was adequate, but was not going to lead anyone to a title.

Trent Green was a salary cap casualty. The team might have kept him if John Kent Cooke was not preoccupied with keeping the Redskins in the family. He lost the Skins to Daniel Snyder. We lost Trent Green to Dick Vermeil and the St. Louis Rams.

We lost Brad Johnson to ownership arrogance. Daniel Snyder had his own ideas about how to build a team, despite absolutely no experience in doing so, and no competent advisor who he respected. He drove GM Charlie Casserly out of town and did not replace him. Evidently, Snyder felt you could win NFL games through big plays all day, just like on Madden Football, and that you build teams by stocking big names rather than carefully matching your talent to your offensive and defensive schemes. So he undervalued the solid Johnson for ol' whatshisname, the forgettable QB with a big gun that no other team in the NFL would touch.

Snyder was churning the roster big time with the imfamous $100 million team. Big names, big plays, big duds.

Gannon was just too early in his career. A new coach (Turner) and new offensive schemes didn't help. It takes a season or two for a new offensive or defensive scheme to jell. Gannon only had one really, really good season -- the year he led Oakland to the Super Bowl, where they lost to Brad Johnson and Tampa.

Incidentally, Johnson considered playing for Brian Billick and the Ravens instead of the Redskins. Billick was his offensive coordinator on the Vikings. Had he joined the Ravens, Johnson would have led them in the 2000 Super Bowl and Baltimore would almost certainly have returned before 2004 with Johnson at QB rather than Boller.
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Old 04-29-2006, 02:01 AM   #27
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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I agree there, but the thought of filling your most important need for 10-15years is pretty tempting, and top 5 picks don't come around that often... a lot of times top ten QB picks are purely need, whereas almost every other position involves a lot more "best talent" available.
I couldnt agree with you more. The most important position on the offensive side of the ball is the QB. He gets the most touches every game and teams are always searching for the right talent at that position. If all first round QB's worked out then you wouldn't have a Tom Brady.
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Old 04-29-2006, 03:31 AM   #28
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

Its poor scouting. If there was a draft for current nfl players, brady would be drafted in the first round.

A good college team can hide a QB's weakness. and a bad college team can hide a QB's talent. IF Brady was on last years USC trojans, he would be a Top 5 pick this year.
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Old 04-29-2006, 11:34 AM   #29
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Re: Discuss: 90's QB Stats

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Its poor scouting. If there was a draft for current nfl players, brady would be drafted in the first round.

A good college team can hide a QB's weakness. and a bad college team can hide a QB's talent. IF Brady was on last years USC trojans, he would be a Top 5 pick this year.
if he was a starter it might have helped too.
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