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Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Old 12-13-2006, 04:32 PM   #31
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
Our 3 and outs are pretty much the same under Campbell as they were under Brunell.

Our offense has done a good job this year avoiding 3 and outs.
your sure of that statistic? i have a feeling the three and outs have decreased.
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Old 12-13-2006, 04:35 PM   #32
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by The Zimmermans View Post
yes, exactly my point, brunell doesn't make those few game changing plays that we need. The ones that give the offense life. The ones that get us yards even if the O-line breaks down, or the receivers are covered.
Touche on that "playmaker" point, but what has resulted from all that playmaking?

Ultimately, our passing offense has suffered, so although Campbell's scrambling makes the gap between the players closer than the passing stats say, there has still been a very noticible drop in production. This drop in production is killing us now that our running game is working for us.

If you are saying that it was time to move on because Brunell wasn't getting any younger, then I agree with you 100%. If your point is that our offense is better right now under JC, then you are just being ridiculous.
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Old 12-13-2006, 04:37 PM   #33
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by The Zimmermans View Post
your sure of that statistic? i have a feeling the three and outs have decreased.
I don't have the exact numbers, but I read somewhere (I'll attempt to find a link, it was either on ESPN.com or Football Outsiders) that the Skins offense has decreased in every passing category except TDs, including 3rd down conversion pct.
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Old 12-13-2006, 04:54 PM   #34
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

Here is the team's 3rd conversions in Brunell's last 4 starts versus Campbell's first four.


vs. Tennessee 5-12
vs. Indy 6-14 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Dallas 5-13 (0-1 4th down)
vs. Philly 3-13

vs. Tampa 4-13 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Carolina 4-15
vs. Atl 6-14
vs. Philly 7-16
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Old 12-13-2006, 04:56 PM   #35
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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yes, exactly my point, brunell doesn't make those few game changing plays that we need. The ones that give the offense life. The ones that get us yards even if the O-line breaks down, or the receivers are covered.
Agreed, Brunell doesn't make those plays. You know, we can spin stats to say a lot of things. But one thing is for sure, the offensive line and the running game in particular has been transformed since Campbell has been in. I don't think it's a coincidence either.

As far as Brunell averaging one more yd per pass play than Campbell or whatever it is, again if we compare apples to apples I'm willing to bet it's a different story. In other words, if they both have the same number of attempts, I betcha Campbell's numbers look better. That's the only way to truly compare that number.
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Old 12-13-2006, 05:13 PM   #36
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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As far as Brunell averaging one more yd per pass play than Campbell or whatever it is, again if we compare apples to apples I'm willing to bet it's a different story. In other words, if they both have the same number of attempts, I betcha Campbell's numbers look better. That's the only way to truly compare that number.
In his last four starts Brunell had 121 attempts. In his first four starts Campbell had 122 attempts
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Old 12-13-2006, 05:27 PM   #37
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

Betts and Duckett represent a Gibbs type of backfield. I think that Portis will be traded, contingent on there being a really good offer. Gibbs himself said he didn't know that Betts had the ability he later discovered him to have, after he traded for Portis. I think that is a pretty telling statement.
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Old 12-13-2006, 05:33 PM   #38
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Betts and Duckett represent a Gibbs type of backfield. I think that Portis will be traded, contingent on there being a really good offer. Gibbs himself said he didn't know that Betts had the ability he later discovered him to have, after he traded for Portis. I think that is a pretty telling statement.
The trade would have to be pretty amazing to let CP go. First rounder (fill our CB and DT/DE needs with two slections?) and maybe some player to be named layer (special teamer, safety,reserve linebacker). I would be dissappointed if this happened but they don't pay me for my opinion.
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Old 12-14-2006, 02:27 AM   #39
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by TAFKAS View Post
Here is the team's 3rd conversions in Brunell's last 4 starts versus Campbell's first four.


vs. Tennessee 5-12
vs. Indy 6-14 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Dallas 5-13 (0-1 4th down)
vs. Philly 3-13

vs. Tampa 4-13 (2-2 4th down)
vs. Carolina 4-15
vs. Atl 6-14
vs. Philly 7-16
45% for Brunell, 36% for Campbell.

I would be interested to see if Brunell's last four games are consistent with his first five games. Ideally, you want the sample size to be bigger than 4 games, but with JC thats all you have.
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Old 12-14-2006, 02:31 AM   #40
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
45% for Brunell, 36% for Campbell.

I would be interested to see if Brunell's last four games are consistent with his first five games. Ideally, you want the sample size to be bigger than 4 games, but with JC thats all you have.
vs. Minnesota 4-13
vs. Dallas 2-14
vs. Houston 9-13
vs. Jacksonville 7-14
vs. Giants 3-11 (0-1 on 4th down)
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Old 12-14-2006, 02:33 AM   #41
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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As far as Brunell averaging one more yd per pass play than Campbell or whatever it is, again if we compare apples to apples I'm willing to bet it's a different story. In other words, if they both have the same number of attempts, I betcha Campbell's numbers look better. That's the only way to truly compare that number.
Well, that's why you do per attempt stats to standardize the numbers.

Obviously the more attempts you have, the more accurate the stats will be. But that doesnt favor one QB over the other. The truth is that you can quite easily compare apples to apples, and I have been this whole time.
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Old 12-14-2006, 02:35 AM   #42
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
Well, that's why you do per attempt stats to standardize the numbers.

Obviously the more attempts you have, the more accurate the stats will be. But that doesnt favor one QB over the other. The truth is that you can quite easily compare apples to apples, and I have been this whole time.
Well, as I mentioned in an earlier post, Brunell's total attempts in his last 4 starts is almost exactly the same as Campbell's total in his first 4 (121 vs. 122)
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Old 12-14-2006, 02:37 AM   #43
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by TAFKAS View Post
vs. Minnesota 4-13
vs. Dallas 2-14
vs. Houston 9-13
vs. Jacksonville 7-14
vs. Giants 3-11 (0-1 on 4th down)
38%. Hmm. One must wonder if this trend may show that Campbell will also start coverting 3rd downs more efficiently now.

Can't really say anything conclusive, but its something to watch for.
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Old 12-14-2006, 02:41 AM   #44
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

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Originally Posted by TAFKAS View Post
Well, as I mentioned in an earlier post, Brunell's total attempts in his last 4 starts is almost exactly the same as Campbell's total in his first 4 (121 vs. 122)
It's certainly a good comparison.
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Old 12-14-2006, 03:21 AM   #45
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Re: Tony McGee On Redskins at 4-9

Just cause I'm bored.

Brunell
vs. Tennessee 5-12 (30th ranked pass defense)
vs. Indy 6-14 (2-2 4th down) (3rd ranked pass defense)
vs. Dallas 5-13 (0-1 4th down) (21st ranked pass defense)
vs. Philly 3-13 (4th ranked pass defense)

Campbell
vs. Tampa 4-13 (2-2 4th down) (10th ranked pass defense)
vs. Carolina 4-15 (6th ranked pass defense)
vs. Atl 6-14 (25th ranked pass defense)
vs. Philly 7-16 (4th ranked pass defesne)

Got the rankings from Ask The Commish.com - Statistical Power Ranking

I don't know how respectible this website is, but I just thought it was something to throw out there. Now that I did it, it really doesn't provide me any insight, except that it's probably a pretty good comparison of the two.

IMO it seems that Brunell probably would have finished the season a little better, but I still think we wouldn't have made the play-offs (all speculation of course). I'm hoping JC's learning curve starts to kick it into overtime over the off-season, and that he can really develop some timing with his receivers.

I'm pretty optimistic about next season. The draft should provide us with some upgrades on defense, and assuming we keep our core players... the unit should be hungry in 2007. Mabye we'll get a few more turn-overs next year. That would be nice.
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