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Next Year's Cap Situation

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Old 03-11-2007, 01:28 AM   #1
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Next Year's Cap Situation

I thought this would be an effective way to show how constantly restructuring can bite ones team in the balls.

I obtained all the following information from Canuck's Cap Sheets:

For the 2008 season, I removed the value of all players who are likely to be cut from the 53 man roster in this 2007 season. I came out with a total cap number of 119 million. The projected cap for 2008 is 116 million.

On the surface that seems fine. We were three mil over this year and cut some dead weight and restructured some guys and ended up about 10 million under. Not that hard right?

Heres the big issue. After removing 20 players who are likely to miss the 53 man roster in 2007 from the 2008 cap total, that leaves the Redskins with 33 players under contract for the 2008 season who combined are costing us more than the salary cap allows. In that 33, we do not have a Punter, a Kicker, or a long snapper.

Now, we still have to draft two classes worth of players and resign key guys like Cooley. So I estimate that 119 figure will be in the ballpark of 130 million before free agency next year. I am estimating that we will be adding about 9 players to that 2008 total before we hit FA next year (Cooley's new deal + First round pick this year + 3 day 2 picks this year + 3 or so guys to fill out this years roster [TE, LB, OG]).

So if my projections are to be accurate, we will have to free up 14 million in cap space (just to comply with the league office) by March 1st. There will be numerous veteran cuts and probably a few restructures. Not only are we going to have to free up 14 million, but most likely 20 million to put us 6 million under so we can fill out the remaining 9 roster spots PLUS a roster spot for every cut we make to get under the cap. The cuts will likely include any veteran whose net cap gain would net us 1.5 or more million.

-Brunell's contract automatically voids, saving us 3.5 million.
-If Springs makes it this far, cutting him saves 2.5 million.
-Cutting Griffin saves 1.5 million.
-Cutting Daniels saves 3.0 million.
-Cutting Marcus Wasington saves 2.5 million.
-If we get desperate, cutting Betts and Rabach save about 1.3 million each.
-Guys like Lloyd and Arch and Carter still deliever sizable cap hits, meaning they will be Redskins through 2008 guarenteed.

As always we can restructure or make post June 1st cuts to save even more money in 2008. To a degree, we will have to do some of this. We can only free up 13 million by releasing the top 5 guys on that list. We will be forced to restructure (or declare our cuts as post June 1) to free up the final 7 million.

But that 7 million is going to be pushed into future years, and the 2009 cap situation is going to be even worse than this abomidable 2008 one.

It is imperitive that we keep our entire slate of 2008 draft picks. We are going to need to capitalize on those picks to help fill those empty (presumably 14) roster spots. Draft picks are always cap friendly in their rookie years and that's the main source of talent this team will have.

The only way this is going to go down easy is if we win a championship this year. It's not like the 2008 team will be completely void of talent, but I'm near certain that guys like Washington, Daniels, Griffin, Springs, Brunell, Saleve'a, Wynn, Marshall, Collins and Prioleau will not be on the roster come this time next year.

So imagine our current roster without those guys on it. Those are the holes we need to fill in our next two drafts.

I really am not trying to be a doom bringer here, but I wanted to prep you guys as to what the future holds.

But hey, if you didnt like the way the FO was going about things, maybe you see this in a postive light (if you are seeing this in a positive light, ask yourself when the last time you saw your physician was).
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Old 03-11-2007, 01:31 AM   #2
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

If we get rid of Springs this offseason, our cap situation will improve next year by about 4 million. But if we restructure him, its only going to get worse.

I personally hope we keep Springs under his current deal and cut him next year.


In addition, the best way to avoid such a horrible situation next year would be to cut ANY player who isnt in our plans BEYOND this year BEFORE this year. So that would be like Griffin and Washington (And more plausibly, Springs).

There's no way in hell we do that though. I think we are going to roll the dice with this team and hope they can deliever a championship right now.
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Old 03-11-2007, 01:34 AM   #3
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

Good read, and thanks for the effort put into that.

If what you are saying is true, then wouldn't the front office already been looking at it? I am sure there are tons of guys who work for the Skins that see this imminent danger coming up. I am sure there can be some other things that can be done so we don't get totally screwed.

And you think we would cut guys like Washington?
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Old 03-11-2007, 01:35 AM   #4
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

I really know nothing when it comes to the cap and contracts, so I would comment more but I will leave that up to the other experts we have here.
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Old 03-11-2007, 01:49 AM   #5
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

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Originally Posted by hooskins View Post
Good read, and thanks for the effort put into that.

If what you are saying is true, then wouldn't the front office already been looking at it? I am sure there are tons of guys who work for the Skins that see this imminent danger coming up. I am sure there can be some other things that can be done so we don't get totally screwed.

And you think we would cut guys like Washington?
I'm sure the FO already knows the above. Or at least somebody does, though they may not be in a position to make decisions.

But I'm sure they already know, heres why: The talk of Shawn Springs' release. Cutting Springs gives us no cap help this year. But it turns my 20 million figure goal estimate for 2008 into a 16 million figure. That's a pretty significant difference. The trade off is we lose our No. 1 CB for this year.

I think there's going to be significant resistance within the FO to any suggestion to cut Washington next year. But if they don't cut him, they have to save 2.5 million somewhere else. That's 2.5 million of guarenteed money that will be pushed into future seasons and will be completely unrecoverable. So if we don't cut Washington prior to 2008, he's gotta go (at least under his current deal--we could re-sign him) by 2009 and then we are 2.5 million further in the hole.

The best option would be to get out while its economically smart, but if he has a pro bowl season this year, that would change our approach obviously.
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Old 03-11-2007, 03:06 AM   #6
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

You guys wanna cut Marcus Washington?? In case you didn't know, he's our best defender. I see your point though and in reinforces the fact that this organization has no idea how to build up a team.
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Old 03-11-2007, 03:10 AM   #7
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

Thanks for the info GTripp. I'm not terribly concerned about our ability to field a group of good starters (in 2007 or 2008), but I think our cap moves have and will limit our ability to field a roster with quality depth. A really lucky team can overcome a lack of quality depth. A team beset by a rash of injuries, particularly late in the season or post-season, will have a hard time producing a Lombardi.

In any event, after Gibbs retires I expect a roster purge that reshapes our team and its cap situation.
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Old 03-11-2007, 03:22 AM   #8
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha View Post
Thanks for the info GTripp. I'm not terribly concerned about our ability to field a group of good starters (in 2007 or 2008), but I think our cap moves have and will limit our ability to field a roster with quality depth. A really lucky team can overcome a lack of quality depth. A team beset by a rash of injuries, particularly late in the season or post-season, will have a hard time producing a Lombardi.

In any event, after Gibbs retires I expect a roster purge that reshapes our team and its cap situation.
Our decision is basically to take the purge in 08 and 09, or in 09, 10, and 11. Either way, this issue is going to force itself within the next 5 years. Like any problem, the quicker it is addressed, the easier it will be for us all.
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Old 03-11-2007, 05:15 AM   #9
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

well, that's what happens when you have a 3 year plan and it doesn't work out.

no big surprise, but i don't thin it's unfixable... using our free cap space right now to cut dead weight wouldn't be a terrible idea anyways.

I'll take a look in a bit.

when do the current tv contracts run out btw? cause that'd REALY affect whether the FO tries to string it out or purge.
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Old 03-11-2007, 05:20 AM   #10
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post

For the 2008 season, I removed the value of all players who are likely to be cut from the 53 man roster in this 2007 season. I came out with a total cap number of 119 million. The projected cap for 2008 is 116 million.

On the surface that seems fine. We were three mil over this year and cut some dead weight and restructured some guys and ended up about 10 million under. Not that hard right?

Heres the big issue. After removing 20 players who are likely to miss the 53 man roster in 2007 from the 2008 cap total, that leaves the Redskins with 33 players under contract for the 2008 season who combined are costing us more than the salary cap allows. In that 33, we do not have a Punter, a Kicker, or a long snapper.

Now, we still have to draft two classes worth of players and resign key guys like Cooley. So I estimate that 119 figure will be in the ballpark of 130 million before free agency next year. I am estimating that we will be adding about 9 players to that 2008 total before we hit FA next year (Cooley's new deal + First round pick this year + 3 day 2 picks this year + 3 or so guys to fill out this years roster [TE, LB, OG]).

So if my projections are to be accurate, we will have to free up 14 million in cap space (just to comply with the league office) by March 1st.
Great info, alot of work has obviously gone into this and it is appreciated.

Our FO must know all this and more about the cap situation and although they have put themselves into this situation, i am confident that they will come through it without too many cap casualties. My confidence is growing because of the actions that they have taken so far this off-season. Rather than breaking the bank with big signings (as we have become accustomed to recently) they are acting in a much more economical manner, seemingly with future cap space in mind.

In addition to this, we have nearly 2 full years to get this sorted out and if there is one thing this franchise does better than anyone else, it is restructuring contracts. I would hope that a key player like Washington would re-work his contract in order to remain here. That being said, i am sure you are right about some of those players becoming cap casualties. Hopefully the damage can be minimised now that our FO seems to have realised their previous approacah was wrong.
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Old 03-11-2007, 08:34 AM   #11
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

Good info GTripp! The key to surviving this, is that they have freed more money this year than they needed to. They must be planning on cutting a few guys that will save us against the cap next year. Cutting LLoyd or Arch this year and eating the 6.5 mil effective hit will save us 4 mil next year. Cutting Patten would save 3.5 mil next year. As you said, Brunell, Springs, and Danials saves 9 mil. So, supposing we will be about 130,
130 - 9 - 3.5 - 4 = 113.5 mil. Expect Washington to restructure saving at least 2 mil. I estimate that another 2 mil could also be freed with additional simple restructures. That would put us at 109.5 mil against the 116 mil cap estimate.

Ironically, these moves put us exactly where GTripp says we need to be!

The key is to cut some guys this year, and, does anyone here really believe that Snyder has any plan to same some of the 10 million he has freed up so far?
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Old 03-11-2007, 12:03 PM   #12
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

This is why using the draft is so cap friendly. Any time a team drafts a young guy they can cut the guys who were originally signed as starters (Patten, Wynn, etc.) and are now backups.

Thus taking the hit now rather than later.

Look at the Eagles for example. They verry rarely let people who are no longer starters remain on the team unless they are contributing.
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Old 03-11-2007, 12:03 PM   #13
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

Thanks for posting GTripp. One of the main problems with the Redskins is that we are a front loaded team. All the money is put into the starters. The FO acts like injuries don't happen in the NFL.

I think it's time to start rebuiling. It might take a while too. Is Griff going to ever get back to playing like he did in 04? Probably not. Daniels is a no brainer. If you ask me Springs is a no brainer too. We don't even need to discuss Brunell. The only guy that I would keep is Washington. And even his play slipped last year. If he has a average 07 then I guess he's gone too. Perhaps his hip was the major problem in 06. But IMO it's just time to clean house after 07. We need to get younger in some areas in the worst way.

What is killing us is the play of Arch, Carter and Lloyd does not match up with the $ they are making. And yes Carter played a little better at the end of 06. But he still got gashed against the run. All I remember is 50 year Bob Whitfiled pushing him around and Tiki running wild the last game of the year.

But our FO always seems to wiggle out of cap hell so I'm sure they have a plan in 08-09.
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Old 03-11-2007, 12:11 PM   #14
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

Great work! Thanks for the info...


However, at this point, I'm just going to wait and see what happens. I feel like every year were in this situation, and then end up being great before you know it.
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Old 03-11-2007, 01:02 PM   #15
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Re: Next Year's Cap Situation

I have a question.If for some strange reason we dont use up all of our cap space this year,could we give that extra money to players now to lower there cap hit for next year?
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