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Offer made on Chad (1st rd '08, conditional 3rd rd '09)

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View Poll Results: Is Chad Johnson worth a 1st and Conditional 3rd Round Pick?
Yes 96 56.80%
No 73 43.20%
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:31 PM   #31
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skinny Tee View Post
It was supposed to be bringing in young players and teaching them the system. Not outsourcing your superficial needs at the time and jeopardizing the future of your team.

That's why Gibbs last action was to keep all the Redskins draft picks for them to use. Because even Gibbs knew the deficiency in our frachise was at its depth, and skill at depth. The only thing to remedy that is to use every pick that you are alotted on a young player in hopes of building depth.
Well Gibbs was not here for free agency so how do you know if he would have saved them. The only one we are missing is the one Gibbs traded for some running back to sit on the bench all year.
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:34 PM   #32
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Re: Offer made on Chad

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Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan View Post
Wide Receivers are not running backs. Elite players do not fall off the face of the planet at 30 so I think this oft repeated argument is bogus. Let's examine.

WR production after 30 -

Jerry Rice:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 12.5
1,000 yard seasons - 8 (including best season - 1,848 yards, 15 tds in 1995 at the age of 32/33)
Jerry Rice

Chris Carter:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 7
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,274 yards, 9 tds in 2000 at age 34/35)
Cris Carter

Art Monk:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 8
1,000 yard seasons - 2 of the 5 he had in his career (including 1,049 yards, 8 tds in 1991 at age 33/34)
Art Monk

Tim Brown:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 9
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,344 yards, 6 tds in 1999 at age 33 - last 1,000 yard season came in 2001 at age 35)

Marvin Harrison:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 6 and counting
1,000 yard seasons - 5 and counting (including 1,386 yards, 12 tds in 2006 at age 34)

Terrell Owens:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 4 and counting
1,000 yard season - 3 and counting (would have been 4 if not for getting Keyshawned; included 1,355 yards, 15 tds in 2007 at age 33/34)

Randy Moss:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 1
1,000 yard seasons - 1 (including 1,493 yards, 23 tds in 2007 at age 30)

So let's not bring up the age argument when talking about Chad Johnson. It is a phantom argument with no basis in fact. If we use historical precedent as a guide it is likely more accurate to say Johnson has 5-8 good/great years left and that he is actually in the midst of his 'prime'.
Age isn't the issue it's the cost, and not in dollars. No one doubts CJ is going to play in well in the NFL for while. Its the price you're going to pay to have him as a Redskin and the deteriment to the team's future in lost draft picks.

Make a list of high priced free agents that the Redskins have acquired and write their stats next it. You'll have the reverse argument.

Right now I think it's better for the team to build Redskins and not buy them. Gibbs had that outlook on the franchise when he made sure that the Redskins had all their picks for the 2008 draft.
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:35 PM   #33
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Re: Offer made on Chad

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Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan View Post
A) Smoot already said above that he is pretty sure the report was slightly off. Read the thread.

B) Even if the report was 100% accurate it was a 1st and a conditional 3rd in '09 that could escalate to a 1st. The escalator clauses would probably be include some or all of things like - Pro Bowl selection, All-Pro selection, 1,400-1,500 yards receiving, 10+ TDs, Conference Championship appearance, or the like. I'm sure the escalators weren't catch 25 passes for 300 yards. They were likely team/individual performance levels that, if met, would have us forgetting about giving up the picks.

The Dolphins made a trade like this several years ago for Ricky Williams. it was a conditional pick that eventually escalated to a 1st when Ricky rushed for 1,800 yards. Now over the long term Ricky didn't pan out in Miami, but that first year he was dominant. If we could get Owens/Moss like production out of Johnson (I'd assume the escalators kicked in with elite level performance) then two 1sts could be worth it. But it wasn't just two 1sts straight up. Get it straight, it was a 1st and a conditional 3rd - and that assumes the report was 100%.
Yeah seriously thanks for pointing that out. People here are bitching about two first rounders, but it isn't. It is a 3rd, that is conditional.
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:37 PM   #34
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Re: Offer made on Chad

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Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan View Post
Wide Receivers are not running backs. Elite players do not fall off the face of the planet at 30 so I think this oft repeated argument is bogus. Let's examine.

WR production after 30 -

Jerry Rice:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 12.5
1,000 yard seasons - 8 (including best season - 1,848 yards, 15 tds in 1995 at the age of 32/33)
Jerry Rice

Chris Carter:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 7
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,274 yards, 9 tds in 2000 at age 34/35)
Cris Carter

Art Monk:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 8
1,000 yard seasons - 2 of the 5 he had in his career (including 1,049 yards, 8 tds in 1991 at age 33/34)
Art Monk

Tim Brown:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 9
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,344 yards, 6 tds in 1999 at age 33 - last 1,000 yard season came in 2001 at age 35)

Marvin Harrison:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 6 and counting
1,000 yard seasons - 5 and counting (including 1,386 yards, 12 tds in 2006 at age 34)

Terrell Owens:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 4 and counting
1,000 yard season - 3 and counting (would have been 4 if not for getting Keyshawned; included 1,355 yards, 15 tds in 2007 at age 33/34)

Randy Moss:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 1
1,000 yard seasons - 1 (including 1,493 yards, 23 tds in 2007 at age 30)

So let's not bring up the age argument when talking about Chad Johnson. It is a phantom argument with no basis in fact. If we use historical precedent as a guide it is likely more accurate to say Johnson has 5-8 good/great years left and that he is actually in the midst of his 'prime'.

I agree there are some players that play at a high level for several years after the age of 30 - but these may be exceptions not the rule. The players you gave as an example are very good examples. thanks.

the age was one of my aguements, not the whole thing. The other two about money and overall attitude are hard to ignore. If we have adopted this new philosphy of building with draft picks and not overspending on aging players - this doesn't fall into that catagory.

I agree we would not draft a WR in the 1st or 2nd round with the ability of a chad johnson, but at what price? I just think the cons out weigh the pros in this situation. We have good chemistry, an overall good group of guys that formed a family. This clown doesn't fit that in my opinion. Its all about Chad, no one else. Chad wants to win and more importantly pad his stats. If we win, I am sure he will say and do the right things, but what if we hit a tough stretch?? I think he will be more of a distraction than an addition. the money - do we really need to give out 15-20 million guaranteed to this guy??
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:37 PM   #35
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Dirtbag will love this....EXTREMESKINS.com - Dan & Vinny Duped Us / Danny please sell the team / #85 Offer Vent Thread (Merged) (morons)

Anyhow, while trying to actually do my own work I'm trying to get some more info on this rumored deal (also curious what the Cowboys and Eagles are offering, but if it's true the Eagles offered Lito and their 1st for Roy Williams that should tell you something), and it appears that some of these "performance levels" are rather high (even unrealistic), Johnson sets single season TD record for a WR, Redskins host NFC Championship game.

Can't confirm that 100%. But if that's the case, I can see why we made the offer and why the Bengals turned it down.
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:39 PM   #36
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Quote:
Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan View Post
Wide Receivers are not running backs. Elite players do not fall off the face of the planet at 30 so I think this oft repeated argument is bogus. Let's examine.

WR production after 30 -

Jerry Rice:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 12.5
1,000 yard seasons - 8 (including best season - 1,848 yards, 15 tds in 1995 at the age of 32/33)
Jerry Rice

Chris Carter:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 7
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,274 yards, 9 tds in 2000 at age 34/35)
Cris Carter

Art Monk:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 8
1,000 yard seasons - 2 of the 5 he had in his career (including 1,049 yards, 8 tds in 1991 at age 33/34)
Art Monk

Tim Brown:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 9
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,344 yards, 6 tds in 1999 at age 33 - last 1,000 yard season came in 2001 at age 35)

Marvin Harrison:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 6 and counting
1,000 yard seasons - 5 and counting (including 1,386 yards, 12 tds in 2006 at age 34)

Terrell Owens:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 4 and counting
1,000 yard season - 3 and counting (would have been 4 if not for getting Keyshawned; included 1,355 yards, 15 tds in 2007 at age 33/34)

Randy Moss:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 1
1,000 yard seasons - 1 (including 1,493 yards, 23 tds in 2007 at age 30)

So let's not bring up the age argument when talking about Chad Johnson. It is a phantom argument with no basis in fact. If we use historical precedent as a guide it is likely more accurate to say Johnson has 5-8 good/great years left and that he is actually in the midst of his 'prime'.
Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:43 PM   #37
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Is this something Zorn wants or is this something that Dan Snyder wants? I wouldn't want this to happen if it was just another Snyder move that Zorn wouldn't approve of. I'm not gonna overreact here but I don't think it's worth potentially giving up two first round picks. If we gave them this year's first and then like a 4th or a 3rd in next year's draft I'd be fine with that. And for the whole Chad is on the wrong side of 30 argument, well, personally I don't like that he's 30, just because if I was giving up two firsts for a player, I'd want a player in his young to late 20's, probably 28 at the oldest because that's simply more years of production out of him if it did work out. Chad may be 30, but he's probably only got like 5-7 good years ahead of him, which I think isn't worthy of giving up two first round picks for.
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:02 PM   #38
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Quote:
Originally Posted by firstdown View Post
Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.
By the same token, SC could select a ton of WRs selected in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft who will never (have never) achieved the sort of numbers in their entire career that Chad Johnson does in one season. So what's the bigger gamble? That Johnson will crash like Cris Dishman or that we're drafting the next Hart Lee Dykes?
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:10 PM   #39
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Quote:
Originally Posted by firstdown View Post
Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.
I agree with him. He is not going to do your research for you, you have to prove him wrong. Otherwise your argument holds no water because you listed no specifics. Give examples of Elite recievers who fell off at 30.
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:13 PM   #40
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Quote:
Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan View Post
Wide Receivers are not running backs. Elite players do not fall off the face of the planet at 30 so I think this oft repeated argument is bogus. Let's examine.

WR production after 30 -

Jerry Rice:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 12.5
1,000 yard seasons - 8 (including best season - 1,848 yards, 15 tds in 1995 at the age of 32/33)
Jerry Rice

Chris Carter:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 7
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,274 yards, 9 tds in 2000 at age 34/35)
Cris Carter

Art Monk:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 8
1,000 yard seasons - 2 of the 5 he had in his career (including 1,049 yards, 8 tds in 1991 at age 33/34)
Art Monk

Tim Brown:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 9
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,344 yards, 6 tds in 1999 at age 33 - last 1,000 yard season came in 2001 at age 35)

Marvin Harrison:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 6 and counting
1,000 yard seasons - 5 and counting (including 1,386 yards, 12 tds in 2006 at age 34)

Terrell Owens:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 4 and counting
1,000 yard season - 3 and counting (would have been 4 if not for getting Keyshawned; included 1,355 yards, 15 tds in 2007 at age 33/34)

Randy Moss:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 1
1,000 yard seasons - 1 (including 1,493 yards, 23 tds in 2007 at age 30)

So let's not bring up the age argument when talking about Chad Johnson. It is a phantom argument with no basis in fact. If we use historical precedent as a guide it is likely more accurate to say Johnson has 5-8 good/great years left and that he is actually in the midst of his 'prime'.
Lol, All people arguing production problems over 30 have been PWNED!!! Personally I was still trying to sort out my feelings on this one but that settles it.

With that said lets look at the facts. An elite Reciever might get 8 catches a game on average. On top of that he's usually getting hit by corners and safetys (though we all know how hard some safteys can hit) but still it's not like carrying the ball 20-30 times a game against D-Lineman and Linebackers, that in general hit harder, and on more then one occasion gang tackle.

Now a drop off in speed might be a concern but as other recievers have proven time and time again, as long as you can catch and understand route running then you can be an elite reciever.

My concern with Chad Johnson isn't the production. It's a possible shift away from the running game that will stunt the running games growth, sort of like New England lasat year. I mean seriously we'll have Cooley, Johnson, ARE, and Moss competing for catches. Not to mention the desire to use Portis and Sellers in the passing game. As long as we stick to the running game and add an O-lineman or two through the draft then I'm fine with the trade.
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:14 PM   #41
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Re: Offer made on Chad

I think our roster is in decent shape for 2008, but we need depth for 2009 and beyond. We will likely lose Kendall, Jansen, Daniels, Griffin, Washington, Fletcher, and Springs within the next 2 years. That's about 1/3 of our starting lineup. Granted, players like Heyer, Alexander, and Blades could step it up, but it looks like we are going to need our picks. I'm sorry, but I'd have to blast the front office if they went ahead and traded 2 1st rounders for a 30 year old wideout. If they could land Roy Williams or Anquan Boldin for 2 1st rounders, I'd be on board.
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:16 PM   #42
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Re: Offer made on Chad

Quote:
Originally Posted by firstdown View Post
Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.
I think the money argument offered above by some is better than the age argument. I'm sure you could find plenty of WRs who dropped off after 30, but I bet they wouldn't have the credentials of Chad Johnson. The guy has 6 straight 1,000 yard seasons, has averaged 1,340 yards and 8 tds over that span (and not all those years were with Carson Palmer either before someone makes that argument). So you can't just cherry pick some WR, you have to come with perennial Pro Bowl talent whose performance dropped off after 30. I bet you will be hard pressed to find your examples.

Let's take it from 1990 and WRs with multiple Pro Bowl appearances (# of 1,000 yard seasons after 30 in parenthesis):
  • Andre Reed (2, noted decline in 1999 age 35)
  • Jerry Rice (see previous)
  • Andre Rison (1)
  • Sterling Sharpe (n/a career ending injury at age 29)
  • Tim Brown (see previous)
  • Gary Clark (0)
  • Michael Irvin (2)
  • Irving Fryar (4)
  • Chris Carter (see previous)
  • Herman Moore (0 - perhaps the best counter example available)
  • Isaac Bruce (2 - perhaps another)
  • Torry Holt (2 for 2)
  • Jimmy Smith (7)
  • Randy Moss (see previous)
  • Eric Moulds (1)
  • Terrell Owens (see previous)
  • Hines Ward (0)
  • Steve Smith (n/a not yet 30)
  • Donald Driver (3 for 3)
I've probably spent too much time on this, but I think the point stands. It would stretch credulity to put some of the above with Johnson and, frankly, there are only a handful of guys over the past 15-20 years we probably could accurately compare him to. Isaac Bruce might provide the best counter example, but Jimmy Smith adds another example on the over 30 side. I'd say the point stands that elite receivers do not decline over 30 and that most continue to produce at a high level until around age 35, and some longer.

Dirtbag offers good reasons above for why this is, particularly the lower level of physical pounding a wide receiver takes vis-a-vis a running back.
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:21 PM   #43
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Re: Offer made on Chad

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Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha View Post
I think our roster is in decent shape for 2008, but we need depth for 2009 and beyond. We will likely lose Kendall, Jansen, Daniels, Griffin, Washington, Fletcher, and Springs within the next 2 years. That's about 1/3 of our starting lineup. Granted, players like Heyer, Alexander, and Blades could step it up, but it looks like we are going to need our picks. I'm sorry, but I'd have to blast the front office if they went ahead and traded 2 1st rounders for a 30 year old wideout. If they could land Roy Williams or Anquan Boldin for 2 1st rounders, I'd be on board.
Let's remember though that the report is a conditional 1st in 2009 (and from what I hear they are near impossible conditions). I just don't want us running around thinking we're offering two 1st round picks, because that's not exactly true.
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:22 PM   #44
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Re: Offer made on Chad

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Lol, another mid-thread post turned into a new thread. I love it, opinion threads are great, so long as they're not on the Warpath.
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Old 04-22-2008, 01:29 PM   #45
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Re: Offer made on Chad

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Originally Posted by SmootSmack View Post
Let's remember though that the report is a conditional 1st in 2009 (and from what I hear they are near impossible conditions). I just don't want us running around thinking we're offering two 1st round picks, because that's not exactly true.
Ahh. I didn't bother to read the link and relied on others' summaries of the trade offer. A 1st and a 3rd (or Betts) would certainly be more palatable.
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