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Mid July Predictions:

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Old 07-16-2008, 12:25 PM   #16
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Da Bears with 11 wins?! Wow
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Old 07-16-2008, 12:51 PM   #17
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk72 View Post
Da Bears with 11 wins?! Wow
It's more of an effect of "how bad can one predict the offense to play".

Sure, the team doesn't seem to be interested in finding a competent QB, but all Grossman has to do is have a career year, and that offense is in the top 20.

Plus, there are only a few certainties in the league, and one of those certainties is that teams will struggle to move the ball against Chicago's perennially dominant Defense and Special Teams.

So I could see the Bears winning anywhere between 9 and 12 games. They won 7 last year, so to expect them to win fewer than that would be to predict QB play at a worse level than during the 2006 season: I just can't see that happening.

So yeah, I penciled them in at 11 wins, but 9 or 10 is essentially saying the same thing: They'll be better than last year, and not quite as good as in 2006.
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Old 07-16-2008, 12:58 PM   #18
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
It's more of an effect of "how bad can one predict the offense to play".

Sure, the team doesn't seem to be interested in finding a competent QB, but all Grossman has to do is have a career year, and that offense is in the top 20.

Plus, there are only a few certainties in the league, and one of those certainties is that teams will struggle to move the ball against Chicago's perennially dominant Defense and Special Teams.

So I could see the Bears winning anywhere between 9 and 12 games. They won 7 last year, so to expect them to win fewer than that would be to predict QB play at a worse level than during the 2006 season: I just can't see that happening.

So yeah, I penciled them in at 11 wins, but 9 or 10 is essentially saying the same thing: They'll be better than last year, and not quite as good as in 2006.
The Bears D fell off dramatically last year, not just statistically but also in terms of their whole personna. They lost their swagger & intimidation. Having T. Harris healthy will of course make a huge difference, but he's had his problems staying healthy for a whole year. I think they're still a good unit, but I don't know if they're good enough to make up for a weak O that lost its top receivers & has a few qb's that are all equally avg. - poor.

Their top wr might be B Loyd for god's sake!
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Old 07-16-2008, 01:23 PM   #19
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

I used the same format GT did, total wins aren't precise across the board.

Cowboys (12) Still the best team,maybe in the nfc, they could be dominant
Eagles (11)
Redskins (8) Too many questions at this point
Giants (7) I expected this last year. They will play well at some point but will have some problems they can't recover from; injuries, shockey, Plaxico & Eli will all have tough years.

Saints (11) - if the secondary improves this team could go far
Bucs (10)
Panthers (7)
Falcons (3)

Packers (12) - favre or not, they will be tough. I like Rodgers.
Vikings (10) - qb & wr keep them from more, though they got berrian.
Lions (7)
Bears (6)

Cardinals (9) - parity is forming in this division
Seahawks (9)
Rams (8)
49ers (5)

Patriots (12)
Bills (8)
Jets (7)
Dolphins (4)

Jaguars (12) - potential super bwl team
Texans (10) - they start to build a winner
Titans (9)
Colts (7) - Manning may not be healthy at the outset & they're due for a bad season in a tough division.

Browns (9)
Steelers (8)
Ravens (8)
Bengals (6)

Chargers (13) - could be their year
Broncos (9)
Raiders (7)
Chiefs (6)
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Old 07-16-2008, 01:36 PM   #20
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Here's mine:
NFC playoff teams:
Dal, NYG, Min, TB, Sea, StL

AFC playoff teams:
NE, Pgh, SD, Indy, Jax, Cinn

Super Bowl: NE over Dal
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:05 PM   #21
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by freddyg12 View Post
The Bears D fell off dramatically last year, not just statistically but also in terms of their whole personna. They lost their swagger & intimidation. Having T. Harris healthy will of course make a huge difference, but he's had his problems staying healthy for a whole year. I think they're still a good unit, but I don't know if they're good enough to make up for a weak O that lost its top receivers & has a few qb's that are all equally avg. - poor.

Their top wr might be B Loyd for god's sake!
I wouldn't say it was that dramatic...over the second half of the year, only the Chargers were more dominant on defense.

This link argues that the Bears D and Redskins D last year were roughly equivalent, with the Bears having a much stronger run defense, and the Redskins significantly better at the pass. That makes sense to me.

I guess my point is this: If the significant dropoff led them to the top quarter in defense, they would have to dropoff even further to be worse than last year. I'm betting (strongly) that the Bears D will be at or better than it was last year, considering the core is still around, and in it's prime. Plus: 100% less Archuleta.

And I wouldn't worry about B. Lloyd being their number one receiver. They still have some warm, non-Lloyd bodies
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:08 PM   #22
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
It's more of an effect of "how bad can one predict the offense to play".

Sure, the team doesn't seem to be interested in finding a competent QB, but all Grossman has to do is have a career year, and that offense is in the top 20.

Plus, there are only a few certainties in the league, and one of those certainties is that teams will struggle to move the ball against Chicago's perennially dominant Defense and Special Teams.

So I could see the Bears winning anywhere between 9 and 12 games. They won 7 last year, so to expect them to win fewer than that would be to predict QB play at a worse level than during the 2006 season: I just can't see that happening.

So yeah, I penciled them in at 11 wins, but 9 or 10 is essentially saying the same thing: They'll be better than last year, and not quite as good as in 2006.
A bit of a tall task to me. If he lasts the entire season as the starter I'd be surprised. Plus the cupboard seems pretty bare at WR and they will have a rookie at RB. I can see their D bouncing back, I'm just not sure that will be enough though.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:15 PM   #23
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk72 View Post
A bit of a tall task to me. If he lasts the entire season as the starter I'd be surprised. Plus the cupboard seems pretty bare at WR and they will have a rookie at RB. I can see their D bouncing back, I'm just not sure that will be enough though.
No doubt that my 11 win prediction is based on a career year from a QB. And I don't disagree with you that it's a fallacious thing to base a prediction on.

But when you consider that a career year from Grossman is about 3,500 yards, a 1.5 to 1 TD/INT ratio (say 20 to 12), a completion percentage of a measly 58%, and about 6.7-7.0 yards/attempt, that seems somewhat reasonable (if unsustainable) for Grossman. It's important to remember that while Grossman isn't good at all, if you compare the first 5 years of his career to Jon Kitna, who a lot of people argue is the top QB in the NFC North right now, you would take Grossman in a runaway. It wasn't until he started pushing 30 that Kitna started producing results that weren't horrific.

I would totally reconsider my prediction if Orton wins the job...because those numbers seem somewhat unobtainable for the neckbeard, but Grossman could do it with a steady diet of passes down the middle of the field to like...Marty Booker, and Devin Hester occasionally getting behind the defense.

It won't be pretty, but then again, no game in that division will be with the quality of QB that Grossman will be facing.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:16 PM   #24
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

They did just get Kevin Jones, fwiw, but that doesn't change my prediction for them at all.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:20 PM   #25
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

AFC:
East
Pats (12)
Bills (9)
Jets (6)
Fins (5)

North
Steelers (11)
Browns (10)
Bengals (8) Marvin gets let go
Ravens (5)

South
Jags (11)
Colts (10)
Texans (9)
Titans (9)

West
Chargers (12)
Raiders (8)
Chiefs (7)
Broncos (4) and Shanahan gets the axe

NFC:
East
Cowboys (11)
Skins (10)
Eagles (8)
Giants (4)

North
Vikings (9)
Packers (8)
Lions (6)
Bears (5)

South
Saints (12)
Bucs (9)
Panthers (7)
Falcons (2) concerned about Ryan or whoever starts at QB

West
Cardinals (9)
Rams (9)
Seahawks (8) I think they fall way off without a running game
Niners (5)

AFC Championship: Chargers over Jags
NFC Championship: Saints over Vikings

Super Bowl: Saints over Chargers
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:27 PM   #26
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
No doubt that my 11 win prediction is based on a career year from a QB. And I don't disagree with you that it's a fallacious thing to base a prediction on.

But when you consider that a career year from Grossman is about 3,500 yards, a 1.5 to 1 TD/INT ratio (say 20 to 12), a completion percentage of a measly 58%, and about 6.7-7.0 yards/attempt, that seems somewhat reasonable (if unsustainable) for Grossman. It's important to remember that while Grossman isn't good at all, if you compare the first 5 years of his career to Jon Kitna, who a lot of people argue is the top QB in the NFC North right now, you would take Grossman in a runaway. It wasn't until he started pushing 30 that Kitna started producing results that weren't horrific.

I would totally reconsider my prediction if Orton wins the job...because those numbers seem somewhat unobtainable for the neckbeard, but Grossman could do it with a steady diet of passes down the middle of the field to like...Marty Booker, and Devin Hester occasionally getting behind the defense.

It won't be pretty, but then again, no game in that division will be with the quality of QB that Grossman will be facing.
Fair enough, that's what's fun about these because at this point it's anybody's guess.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:29 PM   #27
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Off the top of my head, based off of very little except for gut reaction to last year and what I've heard this offseason.

NFC East
1. Dallas (vomit)
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Philly
NFC North
1. Minnesota
2. Detriot
3. Green Bay
4. Chicago
NFC South
1. New Orleans
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle
2. San Fransico
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona

AFC East
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. New York
4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cleveland
2. Pittsburg
3. Cincinatti
4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Jacksonville
2. Indy
3. Houston
4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Oakland
3. Denver
4. Kansas City

Wild Card Round
NYG @ Seattle; Washington @ NO; Buffalo @ Cleveland; Pitt @ Jax
Divisional Playoffs
Washington @ Dallas; Seattle @ Minn; Jax @ New England; Cleveland @ SD
Championships
Minn @ Dallas; SD @ New England
Super Bowl
New England vs Minnesota
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Old 07-16-2008, 07:41 PM   #28
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

REDSKINS SUPERBOWL CHAMPS![/QUOTE]








That' interesting.

Last edited by GINeric; 07-16-2008 at 07:46 PM.
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:53 AM   #29
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Let me give my take, I like doing these things although I won't go into predictions because I'm not good at predicting anything in the NFL lol.

AFCE:
Patriots - obviously they'll be the class of the AFC again, probably the #1 or #2 seed, barring an injury to Tom Brady lol.

Jets - They'll suprise people and be better than last year, but quarterback play will hold them back. I haven't really seen anything from the Jets that makes me believe they will be a hell of a lot better than last year.

Bills - I like them getting Hardy in the draft, though I doubt he will be a game changer this season. They are a team on the upside imo, but this team will go as far as Trent Edwards does, kinda like the Skins with JC. If Edwards stinks up the joint it might hold them back, or if he does pretty good I can see a pretty good year for them too.

Miami - Parcells will turn this team around. They'll probably still be sub-500, but they won't win one game like last year lol. I don't know what they are going to do at qb for this season though.

AFCN
Cleveland - I don't know what to think. I think they are a team on the upside, but they also have a lot of questions, the main one being can they build on last year and carry it into this year? Or will Derek Anderson not improve on last season's success. They've got a lot of weapons so they could possibly challenge the Steelers for the division crown.

Pittsburgh - Pretty solid team all around, I look for them to continue having an excellent defense and they should be decent enough on offense to carry them into the playoffs.

Cincinnati - The offense will do fine, but this team will only go as far as the defense can help them. If the defense continues to suck, whether from injury or w/e, then they will hover around .500 for the season.

Baltimore - Hard to believe this team won 13 games two years ago huh? They have a good defense, but with no clear cut starting quarterback that will hurt this team this year. I think they will be sub .500 mainly because I don't think Boller will cut it and if Flacco starts I think this team will be doomed, at least for this season.

AFCS
This is probably the second best division in the NFL in my mind.
Colts - Another great regular season for them, at least 12-4 and probably right up there with the Pats at the top of the conference. Defense good, Offense excellent. 'Nuff said.

Jaguars - It remains to be seen if this team can consistently keep improving enough to overtake the Colts at the top. Personally I don't think this year is their year, they will be over .500, maybe 10-6 or another 11-5 season, but not good enough to pass the Colts. They've got most of the tools they need, but they don't have anything that will make them clearly better than the Colts and that's why they'll be in second.

Titans - Another over .500 team. I feel bad for VY, he seriously needs help at WR and the Titans don't want to give him any lol. Offense will be ok, although I don't think their passing game will help at all. Defense will be a key component for them this year, statistically they aren't that great but they are excellent at making turnovers and that will help the offense. I look for them to go anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6.

Texans - team on the up, along with the Browns. I like Schaub at qb, provided he can stay healthy along with Andre Johnson. They won't have a lot of support but this offense will be ok. Defense is young and good with Mario Williams and Demeco Ryans being their key playmakers. I think they will be around or above .500, maybe 8-8 or 9-7, which is an improvement but not good enough because they are in a loaded division.

AFCW
Chargers - Probable division winner imo. Good offense, good defense. Can't get over the hump in the playoffs though.

Broncos - Ok team. Not sure about their defense though. Include the offense in that as well, although if Cutler improves the offense will be good as long as Brandon Marshall keeps putting up. They will be somewhere around 8-8, maybe under.

Raiders - running game is looking pretty good, although I'm not giving McFadden any props until he shows me he's good on the field. Passing game I'm unsure about. Defense could be anywhere from average to really good. Kinda reminds me of the 'Skins in '04 lol, only they have a very young quarterback instead of old one. Definitely under .500 but maybe not that bad, like 6-10 or something.

Chiefs - Lots of work to do but they helped themselves in the draft. Offense is a question mark, they need to start using the 2 back system to help out LJ, who should put up decent enough numbers if healthy. Passing game definite uncertainty with Croyle at quarterback. If he's decent than the offense will be decent, Dwayne Bowe has a bright future ahead of him and he could be a great help provided he doesn't have the sophomore slump.

NFCE
Cowboys - Hate to say it but definite 1 or 2 seed in the NFC, although I won't trust them to go anywhere in the playoffs until they actually do it lol. Great O and great D.

Giants - Above average team, at least 8-8 or better but not good enough to pass the Cowboys. Strahan's loss could hurt the team, we'll see if their depth will make up for him or not. They are decent on offense but other than Plaxico Burress nobody is really very consistent.

Eagles - Team on the rise, but not a 1 or 2 seed like most of their fans believe. McNabb is good when healthy, I just don't trust him to stay healthy at all, he might break a finger pouring himself a cup of Gatorade on the sidelines. They'll be above .500 but not more than 10-6.

Redskins - Do I even need to do this? We won't be horrible but idk what to expect either. New offense, will be decent but not Colts-like because it will take a little while to get used to the WCO. Defense could be ok, provided we get pressure on quarterbacks. No pressure on qb's = bad pass defense. Run defense should be ok though. This team hinges on how fast JC learns the WCO.

NFCN
Packers - huge question mark at qb. Maybe not really a question mark, it just remains to be seen how Rodgers will play. If Rodgers can play elite, which could happen cuz he's been ridin the pine for 3 years, then this could be an elite team. Defense will be fine, offense is the question. If problems abound on O, then not a very good year. I can see them anywhere from being bad to being elite.

Bears - Lovie Smith, I pity you. Just find a new quarterback already. Just cuz a guy had a great first month two years ago doesn't mean he's the qb of the future. Defense will be fine, offense is huge question mark. I look for the passing game to be subpar, no good receivers and qb is huge question mark. Running game should be decent, I think Matt Forte will be ok.

Lions - I don't really know what to expect. Something happened to them last season, you don't go from 6-2 to 7-9 without something breaking lol. New offense, same defense. Defense could be subpar, or could be decent. Offense should be fine in the passing game, although I don't really think they have any run game to speak of. Probably under .500 at best, maybe this year Ford will finally get rid of Millen.

Vikings - team on the rise. Idk if Tarvaris Jackson is the answer at qb. If they get Favre they could easily be elite, yet I don't see that happening at all. Run game will be fine, passing game is question mark. Elite defense that will help. At least 8-8 but not higher than 11-5.

NFCS
Carolina - if Delhomme can regain his form they will be decent on offense. Run game should be good, if qb problems arise passing game will suffer and their offense won't be that good. Defense is ok but nothing special. Somewhere around 8-8 for the boys in blue imo.

Atlanta - Not much to look forward to this season. Defense isn't excellent, probably somewhere around average. Run game should be good, I think Turner the Burner will help them this season but qb problems means this team's passing game won't be that good. Roddy White will take another step forward this season, but if the team has problems at qb he won't put up great stats.

New Orleans - Hard to know what to expect from them. Running game should be decent, but another subpar year from Reggie Bush and I'm gonna start putting him and "can't live up to the hype" in the same sentence a lot. Defense should be better but it remains to be seen just how much better. Passing game will be fine, easily the best strength on this team. Somewhere around 8-8 for them imo.

Tampa Bay - I see a decent season for them. Not horrible, but not elite. Offense will be ok, run game should be okay, pass game looks to be ok from what I can tell, and defense will be good but not great, mainly because of age. Somewhere from 7-9 to 10-6.

NFCW
Seattle - They'll be fine again, average to decent run game and above average pass game. Defense is main strength, it remains to be seen if Jones and Duckett will be a good combo in the run game though. They'll have a decent but not elite record, somewhere from 10-6 to 11-5.

Arizona - QB is kinda a question mark, they have good depth there in case Leinart doesn't improve there with Warner. Pass game should be fine any way you look at it, if James has another above average year the offense will be fine. Defense is the q with this team, it will be anywhere from decent to above average. Maybe they can finally put it all together and have an above .500 year. Imo they will be anywhere from 7-9 to 9-7.

49ers - About average team imo. Average on O, although run game should be fine if Gore is healthy. Passing game is real question mark, Smith was improving when Norv Turner was the o-coordinator but he's long gone now. He took a step back, it remains to be seen if Martz can help him and the passing game out. Defense is a question mark too, idk if they will be good or below average. They will be anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8.

Rams - They will be better with Marc Bulger healthy. Him and Torry Holt can't do it all on their own though. Run game should be good with Steven Jackson, so overall they will be good on offense if they don't suffer through injuries like last year. Defense is question mark, that could be anywhere from below average to decent. Overall this team is hard to form an opinion on, they could be anywhere from 5-11 to 9-7.

Rather than try to predict exact records, I'm just gonna split the league into a few groups of where I think they will be this season.

Elite - Pats, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys

Could be anywhere from average to elite - Browns, Steelers, Giants, Eagles, Packers, Vikings, Seahawks, Saints, Bucs, Cards, Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Redskins. Bills

Under average to .500 - '9ers, Rams, Panthers, Lions, Bears, Broncos, Chiefs, Bengals, Jets

Still got work to do - Ravens, Dolphins, Raiders, Falcons

? Marks (these might be teams that could be in other groups, but they are also candidates to be better or worse than they were last year)- Redskins, Broncos, Bucs, Rams, Panthers, Chiefs, Raiders, Ravens, '9ers,
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Old 07-17-2008, 12:15 PM   #30
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

I just don't get how people can come here and talk Redskin foot ball everyday of the week then not even pick then to make the playoff's. I just cannot do that as they are my team I have to pick them to be somewhere in the playoff's.
Dallas
Washington
Giants
Phil
Redskins and Dallas have tied records but Dallas wins by stats.
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