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Old 07-17-2008, 12:36 PM   #31
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
Using the same logic, couldn't you say that we all should feel that they are the best team in the league at all times?

I understand what you are saying, but why stop at playoffs? If you like them more than other teams, shouldn't you pick them to win the Super Bowl every year. I mean, if you are going to be wrong anyway, might as well follow your heart.
The problem with that is that these are predictions. If it said "Mid July Dream Season" certainly I'd have them winning the Super Bowl. However, I don't think that's a reasonable prediction. I have struggled with whether or not they'll even make the postseason this year, but I that's the way I picked it.
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Old 07-17-2008, 12:41 PM   #32
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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Originally Posted by jdlea View Post
The problem with that is that these are predictions. If it said "Mid July Dream Season" certainly I'd have them winning the Super Bowl. However, I don't think that's a reasonable prediction. I have struggled with whether or not they'll even make the postseason this year, but I that's the way I picked it.
Right, but firstdown doesn't understand what could have possibly possessed you to pick that.

I was just wondering where he draws the line. His post suggested that everyone should pick them to make the playoffs, simply because they are the Redskins. I don't agree with that, but I was a bit perplexed why we were all supposedly expected to pick the Redskins to make the playoffs, but not go deep into them.

It felt like he was getting on our cases for not having boundless optimism (or perhaps for just being too pessimistic in general), but then, he put bounds on his own optimism in picking Dallas to win the division. I was just wondering: where is the line?
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Old 07-17-2008, 12:57 PM   #33
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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Well I never picked any of the playoff predictions in my post. I know each and every year we have either a stronger or weaker team based on prior years and all the other stuff that goes on. I just never go into a season thinking that we do not have a chance at the playoffs. Now I don't go into each year thinking we could win the SB but I do always hold that hope. Just look at the Giants last year and who would have thought the Giants had a chance but they found away. With that hope of making the playoffs make me feel they have a chance and I have to atleast pick them to make the playoffs.
I definately don't think we don't have a shot at the playoffs. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at the playoffs.

Right now, we have the weakest roster in the NFC East. My predictions reflect that, as they probably should. However, we are still probably better than every team in the NFC South, every team in the AFC North, every non-Pats team in the AFC East and every non-Seattle team in the NFC West.

I don't think anyone here are writing the Redskins off. I think my, and plenty of other peoples post show that while we have a ton of concerns about our team (for example, our secondary at this time last year was twice as talented as it is right now), we remain optimistic that they could pleasantly surprise us.

Our probability spreads in Pro Football Prospectus 2008 look like this:

(0-3 wins) 3%
(4-6 wins) 40%
(7-8 wins) 35%
(9-10 wins) 18%
(11+ wins) 4%

Basically, we have about as much of a chance statistically of winning the super bowl as we do in getting the top pick in next years draft: that shouldn't surprise anyone.

This is saying that we have a 93% chance of finishing between 4 and 10 wins. I don't disagree with that (though I'd bet more heavily on 10 than 4 if I was a betting man).

So there's definately a measurable chance that we can make a playoff push. It's more unlikely than likely, but it's there, real, and we're all going to push for it.

I sort of felt like you might be questioning some people's fanhood, which is why my response was a bit edgy, but I understand now that you are just pulling for the best reasonable outcome. No hard feelings.
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Old 07-17-2008, 06:24 PM   #34
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Firstdown -- you don't have any questions about Zorn? Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and hope he pulls it out, but at the same time I can completely understand why folks question him. First of all, he's only ever been a QBs coach and never called plays in the NFL, the jump between QBs coach and HC is huge. How many successful coordinators do we see go on to fail as head coaches because they can't adjust?

Secondly, I know a lot of people in the media have mentioned they really don't like how Zorn was hired. Basically we brought on coordinators before a HC because we were waiting for Spags (god knows why, I could get sacks as the coordinator with that D line.) and didn't want to lose folks. He turned us down, and then we ran out of options so we decided just to promote Zorn.

Secondly, we have some key injuries/losses for this year that make a huge difference. No Rogers or Rocky to start the season is a big hit. Rocky may make it, but Carlos certainly won't. Also, the loss of arguably our best player, Sean Taylor, is a hit to the team. In the grand scheme of thing football is the least of the concerns, but when evaluating a team you have to recognize that he's gone.

On offense I agree Gibbs handcuffed the offense (kinda funny how many people fought tooth and nail that Gibbs wasn't holding us back last off season have suddenly admitted it after his retirement.) and that we could be in for a pleasant surprise on offense. However, I'm not sold on either of our starting WRs. I consider Moss a good #2 and ARE a great 3 or an okay 2. Hopefully Kelly or Thomas will work out, but it will take years to be able to see.

I think what the Redskins have going for them right now is depth. I feel like Dallas has more depth at a lot of positions than we do, but everyone else in the division is thin. If Philly loses McNabb or Westbrook, they're done. I don't see their defense being that good even with the addition of Samuel.

I guess I just try to be realistic with myself. I always hope the Redskins go 16-0, but when evaluating the team I do my best to look at what we have, what we're going against and evaluate fairly. Right now, we have a lot of question marks going into this year. If last year we had these same coaches, I would feel much more confident in our ability to land a playoff spot. As of now, I just can't see it. My belief is that we will start out slow, especially on offense. I think our offense will be improved from last year, but see our D falling off a lot. I don't particularly like Blache as our D coordinator. Maybe he can keep what G Will did here alive, but I'm not convinced. I also think we're going to be very thin on defense early in the year, and if we get many injuries on the defensive side we're in deep trouble. People do realize our nickle corner for week one will either be Torrence or Tryon, right?
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Old 07-17-2008, 07:05 PM   #35
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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People do realize our nickle corner for week one will either be Torrence or Tryon, right?
I actually don't feel that bad about Torrence at the nickel.
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Old 07-17-2008, 07:35 PM   #36
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Schneed 10,

Do you really have the Eagles in the playoffs this year? Yeah that is not happening good sir. How do you get the Eagles over the Giants? Or even our skins?!
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Old 07-17-2008, 09:43 PM   #37
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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Originally Posted by Daseal View Post
I think what the Redskins have going for them right now is depth. I feel like Dallas has more depth at a lot of positions than we do, but everyone else in the division is thin. If Philly loses McNabb or Westbrook, they're done. I don't see their defense being that good even with the addition of Samuel.
I think our depth is better than at any point in the last decade, but I think we are far more reliant on Campbell than the Eagles are on McNabb. Kolb is unproven but very talented. Collins on the other hand is elderly, fairly inexperienced, and best case scenario: still incapable of duplicating the results from last year.

I agree the Eagles are dead without Westbrook, because he's a perennial MVP candidate. Pretty much just like we'd be dead w/o Portis.

I largely agree with the rest of your post, though I think I'm on record saying that Gibbs doing any "handcuffing" is 100% perception and very little reality.
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Old 07-17-2008, 10:12 PM   #38
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

Gtripp, While Betts is a downgrade from Portis, I don't consider our team sunk in the unfortunate case that Portis goes down. As far as the Gibbs handcuffing, even players have been admitting that the offense seemed to be much more conservative last year than what they've seen thus far.
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Old 07-17-2008, 10:31 PM   #39
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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I largely agree with the rest of your post, though I think I'm on record saying that Gibbs doing any "handcuffing" is 100% perception and very little reality.
I'm with Daseal on this one, it was either Gibbs or Saunders not opening up the playbook for Campbell, either way the offense was definitely hamstrung by playcalling.
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Old 07-17-2008, 10:37 PM   #40
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33 View Post
I'm with Daseal on this one, it was either Gibbs or Saunders not opening up the playbook for Campbell, either way the offense was definitely hamstrung by playcalling.
and injuries, and lack of confidence (justified or not), and limited knowledge of the plays
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Old 07-18-2008, 12:23 AM   #41
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

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Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33 View Post
I'm with Daseal on this one, it was either Gibbs or Saunders not opening up the playbook for Campbell, either way the offense was definitely hamstrung by playcalling.
But isn't the 'opening up' of the playbook the part thats up to perception/debate?

I mean, I think for "handcuffing" to have an actual effect on the outcome of the game, the playcalling has to be so limited that the defense can correctly predict what's coming. Based on the overall offensive numbers under Campbell, this was clearly not the case.

I think that we can deduce that Todd Collins was allowed to run a greater percentage of the playbook, but from the defenses perspective, the playcalling wasn't any different. The run-pass ratio didn't change significantly with Collins in, and any increase in production can be directly attributed to Collins' level of play itself...not the playcalling.

Like Smootsmack just said, real factors such as injuries to the line and inexperience to the quarterback determined how we went about attacking the opposing defense. There was no "holding back" of Jason Campbell -- throughout the entire season, if the offense needed a big play, they would hang the request right on Campbell's arm -- this started all the way back in the Philadelphia game.

So no, Gibbs and Saunders weren't doing anything out of the ordinary last year. They simply went into the season with a plan, and tweaked it when reality happened. I would hope Jim Zorn does the same thing...but then again, I'm not really sure there's any alternative here to be fearful of. That's just the way NFL coaches do their jobs.
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Old 07-18-2008, 12:32 AM   #42
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

It KILLS me when people say things like "the Patriots have something to prove" or "the Patriots have a chip on their shoulder" or "the Patriots will be out to avenge their SB loss". The Patriots have NOTHING to prove, and I hope they (and the media/public) stop creating these imaginary rallying causes. It's BS, the only thing the Patriots proved last year that they wanted to be 19-0 more than winning another Superbowl, therefore they lost the SB. They can be a playoff team again this year because they are in a crappy division, they have the best QB in the league, and they have one of the best coaches. If they focus on the SB and not running up the score and going undefeated (playing ur starters when ur 15-0) then they can go play for the championship.

I think people are giving Tavaris Jackson too much credit, unless the predictions of Minnesota in the playoffs and the Superbowl assume that Favre is going to play for them at QB. Teams like Minny, Chicago, the Jets and maybe Tampa Bay are not going to do well with mediocre QBs. I don't think Adrian Peterson can carry that entire offense.

The whole NFC east is going to be a bit of a question mark for this season. It's easy to put the Cowpukes as the contender, but even if they do make the playoffs, they are developing a history of being one and done. Also, I wonder if the whole situation with Jason Garrett being the coach-in-waiting will affect Wade at all. Besides, T.O. is bound to blow up anytime. The Giants could appear to be contenders as well, but they could also be too overconfident after winning the SB. The Eagles don't have a true #1 WR, and I think an injury to McNabb will blow up that team (and the city of Philadelphia).

I think as everyone has said, the Redskins are a question mark, they could be a playoff team again, or they could have anywhere from an 8-8 to a losing record.
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Old 07-18-2008, 12:49 AM   #43
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

And after that rant, here are my crazy predictions:

NFC East: 1. Cowboys 2. NYG 3. Skins 4. Eagles
NFC North: 1. GB 2. Minny 3. Detroit 4. Chicago
NFC South: 1. Saints 2. Bucs 3. Carolina 4. Atlanta
NFC West: 1. Rams 2. Niners 3. Arizona 4. Seattle
WC: GB vs Skins, Rams vs. NYG
Divisional: Cowboys vs. GB, Saints vs. NYG
Conf Championship: Cowboys vs. Saints

AFC East: 1. Patriots 2. Jets 3. Bills 4. Miami
AFC North: 1. Browns 2. Steelers 3. Bengals 4. Ravens
AFC South: 1. Jags 2. Colts 3. Titans 4. Texans
AFC West: 1. Chargers 2. Denver 3. Oakland 4. Chiefs
WC: Colts vs. Patriots, Steelers vs. Browns
Divisional: Jags vs. Patriots, Chargers vs. Browns
Conference: Jags vs. Browns

SB: Jags vs. Saints
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Old 07-25-2008, 05:07 PM   #44
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

So, I just picked the schedule all the way through, and would like to revise my rankings a little bit.

#x = playoff team, where x stands for projected playoff seed

AFC East
#2 Patriots (13-3)
Jets (7-9)
Bills (5-11)
Dolphins (4-12)

No big surprises here, I'm predicting that the Bills QBs will struggle, and the Jets will find some consistency at that position.

AFC South
#3 Jaguars (11-5)
#5 Colts (10-6)
#6 Texans (10-6)
Titans (4-12)

The Titans play the role of bottom feeder as Jim Schwartz can't do it again with only Albert Haynesworth and smoke and mirrors. Vince Young takes some small steps forward, but struggles against the top class defenses in the AFC South. Peyton Manning's excellence leads the Colts back to the playoffs, but his luck evens out against the Jags, who beat him twice and take the division.

AFC North
#4 Bengals (9-7)
Ravens (7-9)
Steelers (6-10)
Browns (5-11)

What a craptacular division. Pittsburgh really struggles midseason, dropping 4 straight games. Cleveland struggles all saeson. Baltimore's 'D' keeps them in the playoff race deep into December, though Joe Flacco will be no savior this year. The Bengals keep doing their thing on offense, while the defense takes steps against the pass, good enough for nine hard fought wins.

AFC West
#1 Chargers (14-2)
Broncos (10-6)
Raiders (5-11)
Chiefs (4-12)

Viva la Norv! Chargers return to 14-2 as Phillip Rivers returns to the pro bowl and helps post the league's number one offense. Broncos improve on Cutler's right arm, and the Raiders win 5 games for the first time since 2004.

NFC East
#2 Eagles (12-4)
#5 Giants (10-6)
Redskins (8-8)
Cowboys (8-8)

I'm really waffling atop the division, because I just don't know how good the Giants D will be this year. Two weeks ago, I had them winning the division, and today, I'm confident Philly has the edge. I do think that the Eagles and Giants are significantly deeper teams than the Redskins or the Cowboys, but any team that can stave off injuries (and the Redskins aren't off to a good start) could take the East. Since we can't predict injuries, I'll go with the teams who look better prepared to handle them on paper. Without Strahan and Shockey, the Giants are probably less suited to handle injuries than they were two weeks ago.

NFC South
#4 Panthers (10-6)
Saints (8-8)
Buccaneers (7-9)
Falcons (3-13)

I'm not real confident in this pick. If the Panthers can keep Delhomme: 1) healthy, and 2) on his feet, they should return to the top of the division. The Bucs will grab an early lead in the division, but fade late thanks to a hard schedule and age at the skill positions. Saints will struggle to run the ball and play good defense, but take even more strides in the passing game.

NFC North
#3 Bears (11-5)
#6 Packers (9-7)
Vikings (8-8)
Lions (4-12)

Admittedly, there wasn't a lot to like about Chicago's offense last year, so they did the right thing: they tore it up. They released the veterans who were hurting the team last year, but the question will be, can the youngsters like Chris Williams, Mark Bradley, Earl Bennett, Josh Beekman, Matt Forte, Greg Olsen, and Devin Hester step up and help Rex Grossman mature as a decision maker? If they can't, this projection means nothing. I think Aaron Rodgers will struggle with interceptions this year (even moreso than Grossman), but that Packers team is too good to not push for the playoffs.

NFC West
#1 Seahawks (12-4)
Cardinals (9-7)
Rams (7-9)
49ers (5-11)

If the Seahawks can keep their defense strong, they are the team to beat in the NFC. If the defense regresses to 2006 levels, this might be the prime year for the Rams or the Cards to grab the NFC West crown. The Rams offense should return to form while the Cardinals defense should be it's dominating unit.

Revised playoff picks:

AFC Championship


Chargers vs. Patriots

NFC Championship

Seahawks vs. Eagles

Super Bowl XLIII

Chargers over Eagles
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Old 07-25-2008, 05:48 PM   #45
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Re: Mid July Predictions:

AFC East
Patriots 12-4 (2)
Jets 8-8
Bills 7-9
Dolphins 3-13

AFC North
Browns 9-7 (4)
Steelers 7-9
Bengals 6-10
Ravens 4-12

AFC South
Jaguars 13-3 (1)
Colts 12-4 (5)
Texans 8-8 (6)
Titans 7-9

AFC West
Chargers 12-4 (3)
Broncos 8-8
Raiders 6-10
Chiefs 4-12

NFC East
Cowboys 10-6 (3)
Redskins 9-7 (5)
Eagles 8-8
Giants 8-8

NFC North
Packers 9-7 (4)
Vikings 8-8
Bears 5-11
Lions 4-12

NFC South
Saints 10-6 (2)
Panthers 8-8
Buccaneers 7-9
Falcons 3-13

NFC West
Seahawks 11-5 (1)
Cardinals 9-7 (6)
Rams 6-10
49ers 2-14

AFC Championship
Chargers vs Jaguars

NFC Championship
Redskins vs Seahawks (Redskins lose to Seahawks in the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years)

Superbowl
Jaguars over Seahawks
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