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ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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Old 08-21-2008, 01:46 PM   #16
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

Moss is a #1 wideout in the NFL, regardless of his stats. He's very fast, runs great routes, and has good hands. His stats are down, because of our QB situation the past few years. If Moss had Manning or Brady throwing to him, he'd set the world on fire.

Moss in fantasy football has hardly even been a good #3. That is because of his stats -- the only thing that matter in FF. However, I still blame that on our QB situation.

This year, Moss is poised to do much better in FF. We have more receiving threats, our passing attack looks like it will be more aggressive, and Campbell has one more year of experience. That said, I was targeting him in my draft, but he was taken too early. Go figure.
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Old 08-21-2008, 01:48 PM   #17
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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Originally Posted by Angry View Post
Look, ask yourself this "How many teams could Moss start for"? "How many teams could he be the number 1 for?" Without exact numbers and based on ability, the answer is "the majority of NFL teams".

I am not talking about stats and all of the other hoopla. Of coarse Moss doesn't have great stats. He was in a shit system with sub-par QB play (nothing against Campbell, Gibbs or Saunders).

If you do want to include numbers, then Moss's YPC speak volumes. He is a game breaker with the ball in his hands (you just gotta get it there first). I am not saying that he is the best, but definately top 30 based on ability, not stats.
Saying he is a top 30 is not saying much for him. I actually think he has top 15 talent...maybe better...but he never stays healthy, and he doesn't produce like he should including drops.

Moss YPC was 13.2 in 06 which ranked 54th in the NFL (10 or more receptions), in 07 Moss YPC was 14.4 which ranked 45th in the NFL (10 or more receptions).
So to say he is a game breaker is not really accurate anymore. He was in 05, he has fallen in 06 and 07.

How many teams could Moss start for...most of them. But all teams start a min. of 2 wr's. How many would he be #1 on, just a couple at best. But that speaks more to those teams than it does to Moss. Randle El could be a #1 in Tennessee, does that mean he should be our #1? In Arizona last year, Moss would have been a 3, possibly 4. Same in Indy, and in NE.
You are basing your opinions on ability...and I'll agree with you, he has a lot of talent...but there are PLENTY of players that come through the NFL that do not let their talent come to fruition. Talent means only so much when you're not being consistant or producing. You HAVE to judge on productivity! It's not like he's a rookie or anything.
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Old 08-21-2008, 01:59 PM   #18
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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Originally Posted by Angry View Post
I hope so as well, but I am curious about what signs make his return to "Pro Bowl form" doubtfull. Be sure to read post 13 as well. I don't think you saw it.
It just took a while to post all those wr's, so I hadn't seen it at that point.

The drops are a huge sign for me, as well as we just drafted 3 players that should take away chances 2 of whom will fight to eventually be #1. Also, he has played in a full season exactly 1 time. (no surprise 05). Another sign is that Moss didn't "wake up" until Collins was his QB, he didn't build any chemistry with Campbell.

We certainly agree on talent...Moss has a bunch. But I don't trust that he'll be reliable right now...especially when he's had only 2 seasons that would be considered "good". (he's entering into his 8th season)

He is certainly capable if that is a point you're trying to make. But what happens if he slips on a bananna peel in week 3? The man is constantly on the injury report. There are PLENTY of wr's out there that are capable of being #1, but only a handful will actually produce like a #1.

I see your optimism, and with this new system, Moss could break out again, and for the Skins sake, I hope he does. I'll still wear his jersey!
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Old 08-21-2008, 02:56 PM   #19
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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Originally Posted by 4thGenRedskin21 View Post
Moss has been a product of teams putting double coverage and rolling coverage on Moss because lack of other WR's on our team. This year, teams will have a harder time doing that because all of our WR's have GREAT speed and if they double Moss, they will get burned by someone else. Aso, I agree that Moss needs to do something else this year to make sure he stays healthy. a WR should not be having heel problems or anything that effects his running ability or catching ability, that hurts a wideout ALOT.

Moss is still young and still has plenty left in the tank, and if Moss doesnt return to form this year nad next, it's most likely he wont be. I have actually heard Moss has some of the best hands alot of people have ever seen, and that even though he's small, he will go across the middle and make a catch in traffic.
I agreed with you up to this point for the most part.

Quote:
You're crazy if you say Santana is not a true #1..
Hello world, I'm crazy!

ps- it's likely the other way around, but whatever.

Quote:
QB play effects the WR just as the OLine effects the Run game directly. If Santana makes a couple of those catches that he drops
You are right in saying that a QB does matter...however, his drops were 100% HIS fault.

Quote:
and if he doesnt get over thrown a few times from Jason then his stats would be VERY different.
Everyone gets overthrown. You could also say, if Moss didn't catch some of those difficult to slightly difficult balls things would look A LOT worse. It's funny how we skins fans always see the glass as overflowing instead of half full. If we like someone, we go to the extreme.

Quote:
I'm willing to bet anyone that Santana will be a top 10 WR this year.
Holy crap...I need some money if you're giving it away.
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Old 08-21-2008, 03:08 PM   #20
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

Not sure how valid these stats are...

iWon - NFL League Stats

Moss had 10 drops last year.
Here's a sample of some other receivers and their drop numbers from last year (along with receiving yards):

Braylon Edwards - 12 (1,289)
Terrell Owens - 10 (1,355)
Randy Moss - 9 (1,493)

Just because a receiver drops passes, doesn't mean they aren't good. I think you are making too big a deal out of Moss' drops, Jsarno.
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Old 08-21-2008, 08:06 PM   #21
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

There isn't a Redskins fan here who shows more love for Santana Moss than I do, I will NEVER forget that MNF game against Dallas. I would love for him to have another 05 like season this year....he has to! If he doesn't, the writing is on the wall for him. I can see both sides of the back and forth arguments here, on one hand, I think a lot of people here remember that 05 season for Moss and how special he was here, but on the other, the numbers don't lie and Moss's last 2 season have been anything but special....BUT I completely agree about the QB play and the offense being a big part of that.

So, with all that said, we will see this year, because I truly believe that Moss will get his opportunities this year. I wish him ALL the best!
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Old 08-22-2008, 12:00 AM   #22
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GhettoDogAllStars View Post
Not sure how valid these stats are...

iWon - NFL League Stats

Moss had 10 drops last year.
Here's a sample of some other receivers and their drop numbers from last year (along with receiving yards):

Braylon Edwards - 12 (1,289)
Terrell Owens - 10 (1,355)
Randy Moss - 9 (1,493)

Just because a receiver drops passes, doesn't mean they aren't good. I think you are making too big a deal out of Moss' drops, Jsarno.
You may be right, and certain games stick out in my mind with drops.

You are forgetting 2 things though, the amount of targets and the reception to drop ratio:
Randy Moss was targeted 159 times, 9 drops. (1 drop every 17.67 targets)
Edwards was targeted 153 times, 12 drops. (1 drop every 12.75 targets)
Owens was targeted 141 times, 10 drops. (1 drop every 14.1 targets)
Moss was targeted 115 times, 10 drops. (1 drop every 11.5 targets)

If we compare their respective receptions vs drops, Santana's is worse again:
Randy Moss drops a pass every 10.89 receptions.
Edwards drops a pass every 6.67 receptions.
Owens drops a pass every 8.1 receptions.
Moss drops a pass every 6.1 receptions.

So while Edwards dropped more than he should have, they all are significantly better than Santana. Also, we are pretty vocal about how crappy Owens hands are and he drops more passes than anyone, so to compare Santana to Owens isn't exactly proving anything, especially when Owens actually catches more.

I think we've all said what needed to be said. We are all hoping Moss returns to form. There is no doubt he has not been what we have needed him to be the past two years, and there seems to be no doubt that Santana has the talent. Like redskins247 says, if he doesn't return to form, the writing is on the wall. I love his hustle, and his intensity...he's fun to watch, and I'll root for him as loudly as ever this year, but I certainly avoided him in fantasy leagues. I am BEGGING him to show me that was a bad move on my part!
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Old 08-22-2008, 12:15 AM   #23
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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Originally Posted by jsarno View Post
You may be right, and certain games stick out in my mind with drops.

You are forgetting 2 things though, the amount of targets and the reception to drop ratio:
Randy Moss was targeted 159 times, 9 drops. (1 drop every 17.67 targets)
Edwards was targeted 153 times, 12 drops. (1 drop every 12.75 targets)
Owens was targeted 141 times, 10 drops. (1 drop every 14.1 targets)
Moss was targeted 115 times, 10 drops. (1 drop every 11.5 targets)

If we compare their respective receptions vs drops, Santana's is worse again:
Randy Moss drops a pass every 10.89 receptions.
Edwards drops a pass every 6.67 receptions.
Owens drops a pass every 8.1 receptions.
Moss drops a pass every 6.1 receptions.

So while Edwards dropped more than he should have, they all are significantly better than Santana. Also, we are pretty vocal about how crappy Owens hands are and he drops more passes than anyone, so to compare Santana to Owens isn't exactly proving anything, especially when Owens actually catches more.

I think we've all said what needed to be said. We are all hoping Moss returns to form. There is no doubt he has not been what we have needed him to be the past two years, and there seems to be no doubt that Santana has the talent. Like redskins247 says, if he doesn't return to form, the writing is on the wall. I love his hustle, and his intensity...he's fun to watch, and I'll root for him as loudly as ever this year, but I certainly avoided him in fantasy leagues. I am BEGGING him to show me that was a bad move on my part!
Good info. Moss definately did not help the team last year, especially while Campbell was the QB.

I don't think that means he CAN'T help the team this year. If he produces something like his 2006 season, which was in the middle of his 2007 and 2005 production, I think he can be a valuable contributor for us.
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Old 08-22-2008, 12:25 AM   #24
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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Good info. Moss definately did not help the team last year, especially while Campbell was the QB.

I don't think that means he CAN'T help the team this year. If he produces something like his 2006 season, which was in the middle of his 2007 and 2005 production, I think he can be a valuable contributor for us.
I agree.

I'll be ecstatic if he produces like he did the last 3 weeks of the season:
15 catches, 261 yards and 2 tds. That would translate to 80 catches 1392 yards and 11 tds over the course of a full season.
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Old 08-22-2008, 11:33 AM   #25
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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Originally Posted by jsarno View Post
Not to pee in your cheerios angry, but Moss ranked 39th last year (in normal leagues) as a fantasy WR. He ranked 46th in TD leagues.

Also, he is projected to be the 31st best WR this year according to different magazines.
Being projected 31st and being ranked 39th / 46th last year means he should be a 3rd wr at best for your team. (considering most leagues are made up of 10-14 teams)
jsarno..........I agree with you on your post with one exception. When Moss plays Dallas he is a elite receiver. I know that we don't have the luxury to play Dallas 16 games, but Moss is a Cowboy killer and for two games he is a MUST START.
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Old 08-22-2008, 09:49 PM   #26
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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jsarno..........I agree with you on your post with one exception. When Moss plays Dallas he is a elite receiver. I know that we don't have the luxury to play Dallas 16 games, but Moss is a Cowboy killer and for two games he is a MUST START.
Very true!

Here are his games vs Dallas:
2007
8 / 115 / 1
9 / 121 / 1
2006
4 / 69 / 0
2005
2 / 73 / 0
5 / 159 / 2
2003 *-with jets
5 / 65 / 0

In 6 games, he has 33 catches, 602 yards, and 4 tds.

If all Moss did was play Dallas over a full 16 game season, he'd have 88 catches, 1607 yards, and 11 tds. Yeah, that's certainly a coyboy killer. Gotta love that.
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Old 08-23-2008, 02:16 PM   #27
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GhettoDogAllStars View Post
Not sure how valid these stats are...

iWon - NFL League Stats

Moss had 10 drops last year.
Here's a sample of some other receivers and their drop numbers from last year (along with receiving yards):

Braylon Edwards - 12 (1,289)
Terrell Owens - 10 (1,355)
Randy Moss - 9 (1,493)

Just because a receiver drops passes, doesn't mean they aren't good. I think you are making too big a deal out of Moss' drops, Jsarno.
Another thing to consider when looking at these 3 WR's is their QBs. Sure they may have dropped some balls, but Derek Anderson, Tom Brady, and Tony Romo were all pro-bowlers last year. And all three teams had very good offenses overall. So despite those drops, they were on offenses that consistently moved the chains, and saw tons of great throws come their way from those signal callers.

And 4thGenRedskin- I love JC too, but to say he's better than Roethlisberger or McNabb at this point is premature. That said, I do think he's better than Eli, who caught lightning in a bottle (sparked by their D) late last season. Eli was 25th in passer rating and let the league in INTs. He has yet to prove his worth as a consistent starter, despite the ring. And I personally think Philip Rivers is doo doo. And arrogant as hell too.
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Old 08-23-2008, 07:09 PM   #28
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

I know this was supposed to be a Campbell thread, but on Redskins tailgate right now they're talking about how Moss has fallen off, and they're talking about the same numbers Jsarno has been quoting - hasn't been in the top 30, etc etc. But they're saying he's healthier now than he has been since '04. Hopefully he has a WCO season like Bobby Engram had last year....
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Old 08-24-2008, 07:37 AM   #29
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

I hope last night was not what a break out season looks like.
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Old 08-24-2008, 04:33 PM   #30
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Re: ESPN: Is Campbell a break out player?

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I hope last night was not what a break out season looks like.
what happened last night?
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