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jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

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Old 09-26-2008, 11:01 AM   #1
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jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

Week 1- 3-2, $50
Week 2- 5-0, $250
Week 3- 3-2, $50

Time for week 4. I just got my sheet, hott off the presses, so here are my top 5 picks in no particular order:

1- Tennessee -3. They are high on my power poll due to the fact they have by far the best D in football right now. I still feel Minnesota is overrated even with AP. This game is in Tennessee which means this will be a game that Tennessee will man handle. Tennessee will stop AP (for the most part) and fluster Frerotte.

2- Green Bay +1. I was a little shocked to see Green Bay as the underdog in this game. Tampa is likely the worst of the 2-1 teams, not saying they are awful or anything, just saying that Green Bay is better, and considerably better. Green Bay will be out to prove they are for real after getting beat badly by Dallas.

3- Denver -9.5. I ABSOLUTELY HATE to take teams with this high of a spread, but in this case, I feel the Denver offense is extremely potent, and KC...well, they just suck. Had the spread been 10, I'd stay away, but that half point does intrigue me, and I feel Denver will run away with this. The rumor is Huard will start again, and I have no doubt that he will not be effective, or well prepared. We likely will see a QB change DURING the game.

4- Arizona +1.5 I am a believer in Arizona. They have a good team, and I hesitate to take them due to previous years of thinking they would come around, and didn't....but this year is different. The Jets have an average team, and while Favre does make them better, he also makes them more likely to turn the ball over. Give Warner enough chances, and he'll beat you.

5- Washington +11 I know, I know, I just said last week I stay away from the Skins games, however, this game SCREAMS to me. Since the SKins drafted Cooley for the 04 season, we have 4 losses to the Cowboys, here are the amounts we lost by: 3, 3, 17, 5. Dallas has had the better team in just about all of those matchups, and yet the Skins still have won 4 of the last 6. The SKins and Cowboys always tend to play each other close. I'm not predicting a win for the Skins, but I am saying if you give me 11, I'll take it.

As usual, feel free to disagree, I look forward to the comments.
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Old 09-26-2008, 11:08 AM   #2
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

Good man, once again great picks!
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Old 09-26-2008, 11:55 AM   #3
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

I agree with your picks jsarno
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Old 09-26-2008, 12:28 PM   #4
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

No faith in Buffalo? Isnt Trent Green starting there.
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Old 09-26-2008, 12:42 PM   #5
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

Hard to disagree jsarno. I think you'll be making a deposit Monday morning.
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Old 09-26-2008, 01:21 PM   #6
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

Dont know if I could take Arizona. Ive fallen trap to this team too many times, and right now I dont see anything differently.

I also try to never bet on Redskins, and even the Eagles and Cowboys, but those 11 points do make you want to put a little money on it just for fun. The worst is when you pick the Redskins not to cover and just feel like you sold your first born or somthing. Its definitly one of the worst feelings.
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Old 09-26-2008, 02:00 PM   #7
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

Like all your picks but the Cardinals. Both the Cards and Jets are way too inconsistent for my wagering tastes. If you made me pick that game, I'd take it to go OVER.
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Old 09-26-2008, 02:11 PM   #8
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jsarno View Post
Week 1- 3-2, $50
Week 2- 5-0, $250
Week 3- 3-2, $50

Time for week 4. I just got my sheet, hott off the presses, so here are my top 5 picks in no particular order:

1- Tennessee -3. They are high on my power poll due to the fact they have by far the best D in football right now. I still feel Minnesota is overrated even with AP. This game is in Tennessee which means this will be a game that Tennessee will man handle. Tennessee will stop AP (for the most part) and fluster Frerotte.

2- Green Bay +1. I was a little shocked to see Green Bay as the underdog in this game. Tampa is likely the worst of the 2-1 teams, not saying they are awful or anything, just saying that Green Bay is better, and considerably better. Green Bay will be out to prove they are for real after getting beat badly by Dallas.

3- Denver -9.5. I ABSOLUTELY HATE to take teams with this high of a spread, but in this case, I feel the Denver offense is extremely potent, and KC...well, they just suck. Had the spread been 10, I'd stay away, but that half point does intrigue me, and I feel Denver will run away with this. The rumor is Huard will start again, and I have no doubt that he will not be effective, or well prepared. We likely will see a QB change DURING the game.

4- Arizona +1.5 I am a believer in Arizona. They have a good team, and I hesitate to take them due to previous years of thinking they would come around, and didn't....but this year is different. The Jets have an average team, and while Favre does make them better, he also makes them more likely to turn the ball over. Give Warner enough chances, and he'll beat you.

5- Washington +11 I know, I know, I just said last week I stay away from the Skins games, however, this game SCREAMS to me. Since the SKins drafted Cooley for the 04 season, we have 4 losses to the Cowboys, here are the amounts we lost by: 3, 3, 17, 5. Dallas has had the better team in just about all of those matchups, and yet the Skins still have won 4 of the last 6. The SKins and Cowboys always tend to play each other close. I'm not predicting a win for the Skins, but I am saying if you give me 11, I'll take it.

As usual, feel free to disagree, I look forward to the comments.
I like all of your picks except Den. At some point the shitty teams are going to start playing better and I bet this spread is going to be around 10 or more come kickoff. And if it goes to double digits then I always take a home dog getting 10 or more. I think it hits 70% of the time.

I'll give another tip. Always take the home team for Thurs night college football. It's money in the bank.
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:23 PM   #9
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

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No faith in Buffalo? Isnt Trent Green starting there.
To answer your question. NO.
I know they have played well, but if you saw my power poll, I do not have faith in Buffalo. I know the Rams are not good, but they are at home, and they are mixing things up, plus they are getting 8. So I'll just stay away.
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:28 PM   #10
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

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I like all of your picks except Den. At some point the shitty teams are going to start playing better and I bet this spread is going to be around 10 or more come kickoff. And if it goes to double digits then I always take a home dog getting 10 or more. I think it hits 70% of the time.
Well, my spread is locked at 9.5, so I'm not worried about it. I do think that the bad teams will get lucky or good eventually (ie: Miami...who I picked last FYI), however, I do feel that Denver is a top 2 team in the NFL right now. KC is near last. To me no one can really stop the Denver O. I see them scoring over or around 40 in this game. I doubt KC will score around 30.
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:29 PM   #11
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

For you guys who bet games do you use an online service or a local bookie?
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:32 PM   #12
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

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Dont know if I could take Arizona. Ive fallen trap to this team too many times, and right now I dont see anything differently.

I also try to never bet on Redskins, and even the Eagles and Cowboys, but those 11 points do make you want to put a little money on it just for fun. The worst is when you pick the Redskins not to cover and just feel like you sold your first born or somthing. Its definitly one of the worst feelings.
I hear ya man. If Arizona loses, I likely won't touch them again for the whole season. I have been burnt MANY times by those bastards, but I just see something I never saw in those teams of the past...confidence.

I will NEVER make a pick against the Skins, cause I can't route against them even in a minor way.
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:34 PM   #13
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

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Originally Posted by Mattyk72 View Post
For you guys who bet games do you use an online service or a local bookie?
For me it's local.
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:40 PM   #14
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

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Originally Posted by jsarno View Post
I hear ya man. If Arizona loses, I likely won't touch them again for the whole season. I have been burnt MANY times by those bastards, but I just see something I never saw in those teams of the past...confidence.

I will NEVER make a pick against the Skins, cause I can't route against them even in a minor way.
I think the Cards are finally ready to break through and be the playoff team everyone thought they would be the last few years. But, they need to start winning some games on the east coast. I think that will happen this week too, but history is against us.
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Old 09-26-2008, 04:30 PM   #15
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Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 4.

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For you guys who bet games do you use an online service or a local bookie?
I use local also.

But i use to use online and like it much better. I think its overall easier and you can get a lot better spreads. Plus online you usually get locked into the spread at the time the bet is made. So if you place it Tuesday you get that spread (for better or worse). The only person i know goes off of spreads at the time of game, so everything ends up being last min decision for me.

I got better spreads by using 2 sportbooks. I had Bodog and Hollywoodsportsbook. Hollywood currently has the Bills to win by 9.5 whereas Bodog has them to win by 8. So if you want Rams to cover you do Hollywood, otherwise you do bodog. When Bodog Live came out.... those where the end of my online days. Bodog Live is stright up gambling not sports betting. I do NOT recomend.

Honestly I dont know the process on how you get money to online accounts anymore, and more importantly get it out. If anyone has gotten money in and out without using a credit card in the last year let us know.
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