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Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

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Old 11-13-2008, 03:41 PM   #16
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

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Originally Posted by Beemnseven View Post
I think people are also forgetting that just because Romo is back, reports indicate that he and his pinky are still not 100% -- at least that's according to Mike Golic and Marcellus Wiley this morning on Mike & Mike.

Maybe we'll see some errant passes going into the wrong hands Sunday night.
That's how our D is going to win this game.
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Old 11-13-2008, 03:43 PM   #17
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

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Of course they do. A point spread is designed to even out the money on both sides. If Vegas thinks that people are going to bet heavy on one team, the spread will be set higher to offset that. Spreads are based on the betting public's perception of an event.
No doubt about it. That's why spreads change. That's why Vegas has been around so long, they are pretty smart.
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Old 11-13-2008, 03:44 PM   #18
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

maybe rodgers catches a pick. pinkie 65%
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Old 11-13-2008, 03:44 PM   #19
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

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Just remember how badly we've perfromed during the 3rd quarter of the season the past 4 or 5 years.
As you note, we have gone 1-3 in the 3rd quarter every year since 2003. I went back (thank you profootballreference.com) and broke down the 3rd quarter "swoons".

In 2003 (5-11), 2004 (6-10) and 2006 (5-11), we had losing teams that won either two (2003, 2006) or three (2004) games over the of the last half of the season. So the third quarter losses were not so much a let-down as they were indicative of the team's play over the entire season. In each of these seasons, our bye week was either week 7 (2004) or week 8 (2003, 2006).

In 2005 and 2007, came into the 3rd quarter at 5-3 each time and the third quarter records (1-3 in 2005 and 0-4 in 2007), were clear let downs that almost wrecked the seasons. In each case, the team rallied back to finish strong with strings of 4 (2005) and 5 (2007) consecutive wins to make the playoffs.

HOWEVER - The bye weeks in the two winning seasons were very early (week 3 in 2005, week 4 in 2007). Perhaps those teams, much like this one, entered the third quarter somewhat worn down and needed a mental break and only started winning again by finding something to focus on (In 2005, CP saying "put it on me" and dragging the team in; In 2007, the death of ST and the team's determination to win in his memory).

Unlike those two years, the bye week came late enough in the season this year to allow for the mental rest needed. This team was showing signs of mental exhaustion in Detroit and just simply ran out of gas against Pittsburg. The timing, again, is similar to the prior 3rd quarter swoons BUT this time the team gets a break in the midst of their 3rd quarter (which started with Pitt) AND has a nationally televised game against their historic rivals to (to paraphrase Mick Jagger) "start them up".

Third time's a charm guys. Get the bandwagon out - we are riding this wave to Tampa.

(and yes... I am probably reading wayyyyyy too much into this)
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Old 11-13-2008, 04:50 PM   #20
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

No you're not Joe. Sounds good to me!
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Old 11-13-2008, 06:58 PM   #21
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

Well good. This clearly is more comfortable playing the underdog role.
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Old 11-13-2008, 08:44 PM   #22
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

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Originally Posted by Beemnseven View Post
I think people are also forgetting that just because Romo is back, reports indicate that he and his pinky are still not 100% -- at least that's according to Mike Golic and Marcellus Wiley this morning on Mike & Mike.

Maybe we'll see some errant passes going into the wrong hands Sunday night.

Yeah, now Jones is saying they will make the playoffs for sure. They might win Sunday night, but I am not sure they are a playoff team. If I was Vegas I would favor the Boys also just on the injury report news. Romo's finger isn't 100%, but we won't have our #1 guns out there in Portis and probably Moss.
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Old 11-13-2008, 08:51 PM   #23
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

Clear as mud, Joe, Thanks! LOL... I'm very comforted now.
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Old 11-13-2008, 10:44 PM   #24
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Re: Skins 1 1/2 pt dogs to the Boyz at home?

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That's how our D is going to win this game.
Amen. Go defense!

Have you noticed that all the stories about Romo's finger say that it is "getting better"? Not "healed," but "getting better." I read this to mean that he's still having problems because it is such a duh statement - the finger surely could not be getting worse.
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