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Statistical Projections: Redskins v Cowboys

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Old 11-16-2008, 12:54 AM   #1
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Statistical Projections: Redskins v Cowboys

Some statistical projections for the outcome of the game.

ESPN ACCUSCORE

Cowboys = 60.6%
Redskins = 39.4%

ESPN - Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins Predictions - NFL Football

I don't really understand AccuScore. In the Composite Index, (Rush O, Rush D, Pass O, Pass D) the Redskins score a +31.5. That seems pretty encompassing of all possible results, special teams aside. The individual stats look pretty even, with Washington's players having a slight advantage. I have no idea why it's projecting Dallas as 60%.

ADVANCED NFL STATS' GENERIC WIN PROBABILITY (GWP)

Redskins = 78%
Cowboys = 22%

Advanced NFL Stats: Week 11 Game Probabilities

This system pretty much loves us. We are the No. 2 overall team in it. It slightly overvalues us because to eliminate interception luck (which is a huge negative indicator), the system simply ignores interceptions. Obviously, when you employ Carlos Rogers, this change is going to benefit you. Other than that, it's pretty accurate.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS TOTAL DVOA

Redskins = 12.6%
Cowboys = -11.2%

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Obviously this isn't great for a prediction because it just factors in what the Cowboys accomplished with Johnson and Bollinger in as equal to the other games, and obviously the 12.6% was accomplished with Portis, but we'll see.

There seems to be a consensus that the Redskins are the better team, and there should be. Still with that knowledge in hand, a lot of people think the Cowboys can pull this out, and vegas is slightly bullish on Dallas as well. We'll have to see who wins out: stats, or Tony Romo's fan club.
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Old 11-16-2008, 01:23 AM   #2
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Re: Statistical Projections: Redskins v Cowboys

Not so sure about that stuff G. When healthy I think we are the better team, but we are pretty banged up, even discounting Portis. Romo is back and he has a bona fide WR corp that has the potential to do some damage. Other than Moss, and maybe Randle El, we don't have jack. Outside of Moss and Cooley we really don't have real threats. With the running game, is Betts really going to be fine in the cold weather coming off an injury? I see this game as a potential debacle.
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Old 11-16-2008, 01:35 AM   #3
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Re: Statistical Projections: Redskins v Cowboys

Quote:
Originally Posted by GusFrerotte View Post
Not so sure about that stuff G. When healthy I think we are the better team, but we are pretty banged up, even discounting Portis. Romo is back and he has a bona fide WR corp that has the potential to do some damage. Other than Moss, and maybe Randle El, we don't have jack. Outside of Moss and Cooley we really don't have real threats. With the running game, is Betts really going to be fine in the cold weather coming off an injury? I see this game as a potential debacle.
Still, if there's a huge discrepancy with injuries, that's one thing, but Portis is just one man. I think Betts will be fine in the same way Marion Barber will be fine.

A lot in this game depends on Moss, but his hammy didn't flare up in practice, so I'm confident he can produce.
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Old 11-16-2008, 01:48 AM   #4
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Re: Statistical Projections: Redskins v Cowboys

Quote:
Originally Posted by GusFrerotte View Post
Not so sure about that stuff G. When healthy I think we are the better team, but we are pretty banged up, even discounting Portis. Romo is back and he has a bona fide WR corp that has the potential to do some damage. Other than Moss, and maybe Randle El, we don't have jack. Outside of Moss and Cooley we really don't have real threats. With the running game, is Betts really going to be fine in the cold weather coming off an injury? I see this game as a potential debacle.
Don't forget that Romo's pinkie is still ailing somewhat.
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Old 11-16-2008, 09:27 AM   #5
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Re: Statistical Projections: Redskins v Cowboys

stupid romo and his pinkie...i hope jason taylor breaks his index
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Old 11-16-2008, 02:05 PM   #6
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Re: Statistical Projections: Redskins v Cowboys

I wonder, do you think Accuscore just disregarded the last 3 Cowboys games? seems really out of proportion to me.
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