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Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Old 03-19-2009, 02:50 PM   #241
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat View Post
this will be campbells 5th nfl season and third as a full time starter. he played significantly his 2nd season. for the past 4 years hes improved in some areas while remaining stagnant in others. every year, theres a new excuse made for his lack of becoming the elite pro-bowl quarterback we thought he would be when we drafted him. do we really have to make him play out his entire contract before acknowledging that we made a mistake?... before we accept the fact he's just another trent dilfer?

at some point, when you make a bad decision, you have to cut your losses, get what you can for a player (ie trade him) and move on. committing to campbell another year only ensures we let campbell go without compensation and sets us back another year when it comes to finding a long term solution at quarterback.

sticking to jc another year is no different than mopping the decks on the titanic. weve invested too much him already. its time to "abandon ship"
First off, I don't think Joe Gibbs looked at him as that, he just saw a kid of solid character & athletic ability that he could win with, as he had w/3 qb's in his first stint in DC.

Second, the excuses point to a much larger problem; everybody on the team has had to adjust to new systems under the danny. Let's face it, the skins haven't been a stable organization, and even under Gibbs, they brough in Saunders. Do you think Brunell adopted to Saunders offense well? I don't. At some point there has to be one system to build on, then judge the qb.

I believe the offense changed later in the year when Zorn started putting in more 4 wr sets w/an empty backfield. Even then, I don't think JC choked under pressure, I just think our O wasn't good enough to hang w/the big boys. He took a serious beating against Pitt.
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Old 03-19-2009, 02:57 PM   #242
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat View Post
this will be campbells 5th nfl season and third as a full time starter. he played significantly his 2nd season. for the past 4 years hes improved in some areas while remaining stagnant in others. every year, theres a new excuse made for his lack of becoming the elite pro-bowl quarterback we thought he would be when we drafted him. do we really have to make him play out his entire contract before acknowledging that we made a mistake?... before we accept the fact he's just another trent dilfer?

at some point, when you make a bad decision, you have to cut your losses, get what you can for a player (ie trade him) and move on. committing to campbell another year only ensures we let campbell go without compensation and sets us back another year when it comes to finding a long term solution at quarterback.

sticking to jc another year is no different than mopping the decks on the titanic. weve invested too much him already. its time to "abandon ship"
So you think bringing in a brand new QB (with questionable character) to learn Zorn's offensive is the best option? I would agree with you if JC had been in the same system for the past three years, but he hasn't (yet still he did a good job last year).

It's funny that you mention that he's been in the league for 5 years, b/c if Gibbs had taken a risk with him, he'd be more developed as a QB right now, instead he went with Brunnel. Granted, Gibbs wanted to win right away and worked better with veteran QBs. It's funny though that a lot of people mention that the team needs to groom young players, and well Gibbs missed the opportunity to groom Campbell (make him a starter during his second season instead of the third).
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Old 03-19-2009, 02:57 PM   #243
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

Personally I don't think 3 new offenses in 4 years is an excuse. The reality of it is it's tough to get comfortable as a young QB if you're always learning a new system every offseason.

I'd love to see an example of a QB who has gone through what JC has in regard to system changes and didn't struggle.
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Old 03-19-2009, 03:02 PM   #244
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by Mattyk72 View Post
Personally I don't think 3 new offenses in 4 years is an excuse. The reality of it is it's tough to get comfortable as a young QB if you're always learning a new system every offseason.

I'd love to see an example of a QB who has gone through what JC has in regard to system changes and didn't struggle.
Campbell didn't.

I mean, that was my one example

The notion that Jason Campbell isn't a franchise QB is kind of absurd. We won't know for sure until we get him some protection and develop some weapons and then see if his production reaches pro-bowl levels. Within reason, that could be in 2009, but no Quarterback since Tim Couch has ever busted out of the NFL while playing as well as Campbell did last season, and with Couch, there was a mitigating circumstance (his elbow developed chronic issues right at the time he hit the market).
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Old 03-19-2009, 03:03 PM   #245
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by Mattyk72 View Post
Personally I don't think 3 new offenses in 4 years is an excuse. The reality of it is it's tough to get comfortable as a young QB if you're always learning a new system every offseason.

I'd love to see an example of a QB who has gone through what JC has in regard to system changes and didn't struggle.
Folks underestimate the importance of having continuity in an offense. If you look at the likes of Manning, Brady, McNabb, Eli, they've had the same coach and the same offense year after year. One criticism that I have of the FO/Ownership (which very few people mention) is that they have not created some type of continuity in offense.
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Old 03-19-2009, 03:05 PM   #246
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
Before we say he's another Trent Dilfer, can I at least point out that Dilfer never, not once, ever had a season nearly as good as Campbell had last year at age 26?


YEAR TEAM G CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD LNG INT RAT
Dilfer best year
1997 TAM 16 217 386 56.2 2555 6.6 21 59 11 82.8

Campbells best year
2008 WAS 16 315 506 62.3 3245 6.4 13 67 6 84.3

Dilfer had alot less attempts w/ 8 more td's but has 5 more picks.
I'd say its pretty close which is sad if you think about it.
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Old 03-19-2009, 03:12 PM   #247
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by SOUL-SKINS View Post
YEAR TEAM G CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD LNG INT RAT
Dilfer best year
1997 TAM 16 217 386 56.2 2555 6.6 21 59 11 82.8

Campbells best year
2008 WAS 16 315 506 62.3 3245 6.4 13 67 6 84.3

Dilfer had alot less attempts w/ 8 more td's but has 5 more picks.
I'd say its pretty close which is sad if you think about it.
From 1997:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Some dude from Jacksonville had a better year than either Brett Favre or John Elway. Well, I'll be.

By either metric, Dilfer's best year was a little bit worse than Gus Frerotte's year in 1997. He won ten games, but he also fumbled six times, and only lost one of them. Either way, Campbell's year was still pretty far above that sort of level of mediocre. Well, not far above, but clear enough for there to be little argument.

EDIT: For some fun trivial facts, check the last two players on that list.
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Old 03-19-2009, 03:15 PM   #248
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat View Post
this will be campbells 5th nfl season and third as a full time starter. he played significantly his 2nd season. for the past 4 years hes improved in some areas while remaining stagnant in others. every year, theres a new excuse made for his lack of becoming the elite pro-bowl quarterback we thought he would be when we drafted him. do we really have to make him play out his entire contract before acknowledging that we made a mistake?... before we accept the fact he's just another trent dilfer?

at some point, when you make a bad decision, you have to cut your losses, get what you can for a player (ie trade him) and move on. committing to campbell another year only ensures we let campbell go without compensation and sets us back another year when it comes to finding a long term solution at quarterback.

sticking to jc another year is no different than mopping the decks on the titanic. weve invested too much him already. its time to "abandon ship"
Look, this is his make or break season for JC. It's important that he shows the FO and us that he's progressing and he's a starting QB in the league. If he doesn't have a great season then yeah I'd probably cut my ties if i find a better option, but he's had to deal with 3 systems in 4yrs which is tough for a guy who might not be able to pick up everything as fast as someone else. He's all we have coming into the season with unless you bring a shady character like Cutler. The bottom line is JC has to prove he's our starting QB and if not, he should go.
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Old 03-19-2009, 03:26 PM   #249
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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Just ran a very simple regression equation on Campbell using only his prior stats, and of course, assuming 16 starts.

Campbell 09 - 350/557, 3790 yds, 17 TDs, 9 INTs

Yards per Attempt = 6.8
Completion Pecentage = 62.8%

Sacks taken = 31
QB Rating = 86.2

This, of course, assumes the quality of offense around him is on par with the average offense he's had over the past 3 years, which is to say, very sucky.

Abandon ship!
is that enough for you?

1td and 2 sacks per game and a meager 86.2 qb rating?

if you factor out his freakish uncharacteristic run of no tds in the first part of the season, he'd be averaging almost as many INTs as touchdowns.

jay cutler was a better qb his 2nd year than campbell will likely be in his fifth. jc, who will likely never be more than an average qb improved dramatically under zorns tutelage. now imagine what zorn could do with someone like cutler. the ceiling is low with campbell. with cutler, the skys the limit.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:01 PM   #250
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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is that enough for you?

1td and 2 sacks per game and a meager 86.2 qb rating?

if you factor out his freakish uncharacteristic run of no tds in the first part of the season, he'd be averaging almost as many INTs as touchdowns.

jay cutler was a better qb his 2nd year than campbell will likely be in his fifth. jc, who will likely never be more than an average qb improved dramatically under zorns tutelage. now imagine what zorn could do with someone like cutler. the ceiling is low with campbell. with cutler, the skys the limit.
Zorn has a year left to prove himself, I don't think he's going to want to risk it by teaching another QB his system all over again. And you overlook the fact that Cutler's 2nd year was under the same offense and coach.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:13 PM   #251
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

My bottom line is really simple: After next year JC will have had his full contract to prove his doubters wrong or right. I believe they are wrong and that he is going to have a standout year, and then you know what doubters/haters will say... oh he only played that way because it was a contract year.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:47 PM   #252
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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is that enough for you?

1td and 2 sacks per game and a meager 86.2 qb rating?

if you factor out his freakish uncharacteristic run of no tds in the first part of the season, he'd be averaging almost as many INTs as touchdowns.

jay cutler was a better qb his 2nd year than campbell will likely be in his fifth. jc, who will likely never be more than an average qb improved dramatically under zorns tutelage. now imagine what zorn could do with someone like cutler. the ceiling is low with campbell. with cutler, the skys the limit.
You mean, in this offense, with Moss and Randle El as the only targets on the outside, and with no more help on the OL and at TE, 86.2 isn't good enough?

Look, Cutler's a career 3 to 2 TD/INT guy. His career completion percentage is about two points higher than Campbell, but they were equal last year. If I ran Cutler's stats in the Redskins' regression equation (which I can't, accurately at least, because there's zero Cutler on Redskins data), but they'd look something like:

Cutler 09 - 361/575, 4025 yds, 20 TDs, 16 INTs

Yards per Attempt = 7.0 (this is down from Cutler's career average, Skins adjustment)
Completion Pecentage = 62.8%

The QB rating with these numbers would be = 83.6


Which is actually less valuable in the current offense, because the huge increase in INTs would outweigh the TDs and Yds increase pretty significantly.

Cutler is actually really good at not getting sacked, but Campbell is no slouch.

Cutler/Campbell are really no different as prospects. They have basically the same record (16-20 vs. 17-20), and Cutler snuck into the pro bowl in the weaker conference this year, but there's no objective reason to assume one has a low ceiling, and the other could improve forever. That's just perception.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:50 PM   #253
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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My bottom line is really simple: After next year JC will have had his full contract to prove his doubters wrong or right. I believe they are wrong and that he is going to have a standout year, and then you know what doubters/haters will say... oh he only played that way because it was a contract year.
I can't see anyone questioning JC's character like that...they may question his talent but everyone knows he's a standup guy. Anyone who thinks JC would only give his best in a contract year doesn't have a clue.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:53 PM   #254
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

I'll re-state the other point: that if we improve the offense around Campbell, his rating projection instantly goes up. The number I have above assumes that the offense around him is no better than the mean average of the last 2.5 seasons, because that's the only assumption that can be made. If Kelly has a breakout year, Campbell's effortlessly in the 90's with 20+ TDs. If the OL improves and Kelly and Davis both break out, well, now Jason Campbell is a pro bowler.
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Old 03-19-2009, 04:56 PM   #255
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Re: Seems like Cutler might be available.

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I can't see anyone questioning JC's character like that...they may question his talent but everyone knows he's a standup guy. Anyone who thinks JC would only give his best in a contract year doesn't have a clue.
Screw multiyear contracts, if i was the FO id sign only one year contracts so every year was a contract year. But yeah that would be crazy eh.
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