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Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Old 11-16-2009, 01:47 PM   #1096
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by Beemnseven View Post
In other words, if everything around him is perfect, he can be a good quarterback. I don't think you can point to any stretch of Jason Campbell's career and pick out "2-3 plays" over multiple games that put us over the edge. The most recent one that stands out is the New Orleans game last year.

You might get 8, 9, maybe 10 wins that way, but the league's champions have QBs that can make big plays on a consistent basis. If you go up against a powerhouse team like the Colts, Pats, Saints, or Steelers, on their field or in the playoffs, you're going to need more than just a game managing QB who doesn't throw picks. In that sense, it's my contention that Jason Campbell won't be the quarterback of a championship team no matter where he plays.
I think there's a medium between having league worst protection and receiving, like we currently have, and having everything around him be perfect.

Right now, we have a non-descript figurehead QB. Under the current circumstance, you could replace Campbell with Garcia or Byron Leftwich, and he would just be known as "Washington QB" and the production would be exactly the same. If you improved the units around him to league average, you'd probably have the Campbell of the first half of last year. If you add a great defense to that, then you have a super bowl contender.

Jason Campbell is probably not the type of player who gets better by putting the ball in his hands 50 times a game like Brady or Brees. If he had better ball-securing fundamentals, then maybe. If you put a legitimately great receiver and OL in front of him, you'd probably have something that looks like Steve McNair. Otherwise, you're always going to have to take the good with the bad.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:56 PM   #1097
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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I'd say that every team that wins the championship can run and play good defense. A lot of them can pass as well.
To win a title you have to have a playmaker at the QB spot,not a manager who can make a play here and there. When was the last time a team with a good running game and a avg QB won the SB? And even if you throw out the names Dilfer and Johnson you have to point out the fact that they had great defenses,the type of defenses that dont come along very often that can take over games. it may be another 4+ yrs before you see a defense like those that carry a team to the title but in that time you will see many teams win because of the man throwing the ball.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:01 PM   #1098
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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I think there's a medium between having league worst protection and receiving, like we currently have, and having everything around him be perfect.

Right now, we have a non-descript figurehead QB. Under the current circumstance, you could replace Campbell with Garcia or Byron Leftwich, and he would just be known as "Washington QB" and the production would be exactly the same. If you improved the units around him to league average, you'd probably have the Campbell of the first half of last year. If you add a great defense to that, then you have a super bowl contender.

Jason Campbell is probably not the type of player who gets better by putting the ball in his hands 50 times a game like Brady or Brees. If he had better ball-securing fundamentals, then maybe. If you put a legitimately great receiver and OL in front of him, you'd probably have something that looks like Steve McNair. Otherwise, you're always going to have to take the good with the bad.

Are you serious? He avg'd ONE TD pass a game during that stint. You think that will beat Manning,Brady,Brees,Favre or Warner?
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:09 PM   #1099
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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I think the smart fans don't hate the guy. How can you? He's the type of guy you want to root for and do well. He's not a diva ass punk like CP or Hall. He's nothing but a high character stand up guy. But he's just not a legit NFL starter. He missed 3 TD's yesterday w/ inaccurate throws. I know even the best guys miss stuff but the best guys make more than they miss. W/ JC it's the opposite, he misses more than he makes.
This is what completion percentage grades a QB on, and Campbell's right dead at the league average.

So in a vacuum, Campbell misses just as often as he makes. Compared to all first round draft pick QBs since his draft year of 2005, the group of guys who "make plays" at a higher rate includes only Cutler, Rodgers, and Flacco.

I looked at first rounders only because if you were to consider using a 2010 first rounder on a QB, you'd expect 2/3 of potential draftees to post a lower career completion % than Campbell, and that's just not helping.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:11 PM   #1100
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Are you serious? He avg'd ONE TD pass a game during that stint. You think that will beat Manning,Brady,Brees,Favre or Warner?
I remember Portis scoring a lot in the red zone then, though I could be wrong.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:18 PM   #1101
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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To win a title you have to have a playmaker at the QB spot,not a manager who can make a play here and there. When was the last time a team with a good running game and a avg QB won the SB? And even if you throw out the names Dilfer and Johnson you have to point out the fact that they had great defenses,the type of defenses that dont come along very often that can take over games. it may be another 4+ yrs before you see a defense like those that carry a team to the title but in that time you will see many teams win because of the man throwing the ball.
Brady prior to 2004 was a pretty mediocre QB, and he won two titles before his breakout. Roethlisberger in 2005. Eli in 2007.

How often does one of the top five QBs in the NFL at the time actually win the super bowl? Peyton in 2006, Brady in 2004, Warner in 1999, and like, Favre in 1996? Those teams had playmakers at the QB spot and won, I guess, but in 13 years a top five quarterback (in that year) has won the super bowl four times. That's 30%.

You're wasting your time on this argument. Having a great quarterback and having a great defense are both great weapons in terms of winning playoff games, but balance is way more important.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:24 PM   #1102
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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This is what completion percentage grades a QB on, and Campbell's right dead at the league average.

So in a vacuum, Campbell misses just as often as he makes. Compared to all first round draft pick QBs since his draft year of 2005, the group of guys who "make plays" at a higher rate includes only Cutler, Rodgers, and Flacco.

I looked at first rounders only because if you were to consider using a 2010 first rounder on a QB, you'd expect 2/3 of potential draftees to post a lower career completion % than Campbell, and that's just not helping.
This is where the stat line lies. Yes he had a good completion %, looks like he played a good game but he missed 3 easy TD's yesterday. It only shows up as 3 incomplete passes but the reality is it could've been 21 points. He can make up those incompetions with screens, wr screens and easy short crossing passes. It's the big plays he misses that hurts the offense.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:39 PM   #1103
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Brady prior to 2004 was a pretty mediocre QB, and he won two titles before his breakout. Roethlisberger in 2005. Eli in 2007.

How often does one of the top five QBs in the NFL at the time actually win the super bowl? Peyton in 2006, Brady in 2004, Warner in 1999, and like, Favre in 1996? Those teams had playmakers at the QB spot and won, I guess, but in 13 years a top five quarterback (in that year) has won the super bowl four times. That's 30%.

You're wasting your time on this argument. Having a great quarterback and having a great defense are both great weapons in terms of winning playoff games, but balance is way more important.
Yeah right. 03 and 04 were pretty damn good years for Brady. Especially when was throwing to Deion Branch, Troy Brown and the guy that left for Tenn that was never heard from again. If JC could put up numbers that Brady did in those years he'd be rewarded with a big raise.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:47 PM   #1104
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - SB XXIII
Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - SB XXIV
Jeff Hostetler, New York Giants - SB XXV
Mark Rypien, Washington Redskins - SB XXVI
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - SB XXVII
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - SB XXVIII
Steve Young, San Francisco 49ers - SB XXIX
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - SB XXX
Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers - SB XXXI
John Elway, Denver Broncos - SB XXXII
John Elway, Denver Broncos - SB XXXIII
Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams - SB XXXIV
Trent Dilfer, Baltimore Ravens - SB XXXV
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - SB XXXVI
Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - SB XXXVII
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - SB XXXVIII
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - SB XXXIX
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - SB XL
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - SB XLI
Eli Manning, New York Giants - SB XLII
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - SB XLIII

Past SB winning QB's, id say this is a pretty good list. Nothing avg about them. But once here and there you will find a name that had a GREAT Defense that carried the team to the title but like i said for the most part these guys led their team to the "W". And the ones who rode their defense to the title,how often do you see a defense of that caliber? not very often do you see a defense like that of the 85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, or the Bucs of 2002. In these rare cases i believe these defenses actually outscored the opposing team all by themselves in the SB.
In the post you had earlier where you stated if JC had an avg offensive supporting cast around him he could be a SB contending QB with a great defense. Well i think you would be hard pressed to find a pro QB who wouldnt, and thats the point, that you are more likely to win a title with a top QB with a top 10 defense than you are to have the stars align just right and have a great defense that wins the games for you.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:49 PM   #1105
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

Campbell is on pace this type of season:

299 of 452 (66.1%) for 3,324 yards, 18 TDs and 14 INTs. QB rating of 87.9

It's another year of improvement, career highs in completion %, yards, QB rating, and TDs. All with a subpar offensive line.

So is this a guy we look to move on from? I'm on the fence.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:58 PM   #1106
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Campbell is on pace this type of season:

299 of 452 (66.1%) for 3,324 yards, 18 TDs and 14 INTs. QB rating of 87.9

It's another year of improvement, career highs in completion %, yards, QB rating, and TDs. All with a subpar offensive line.

So is this a guy we look to move on from? I'm on the fence.
Yeah but how many guys keep the pace they are on for 16 games? And dont forget that the numbers you got for this sample were from the easy part of our schedule. We have a tough road ahead of us.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:59 PM   #1107
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

Good post DB 101. It's the exception to the rule when a "mediocre" QB wins the SB.

The only reason this thread is "revived" is b/c Kyle Orton got hurt and didn't play the 2nd half and LB/the oline had a big game yesterday. JC had an average day.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:04 PM   #1108
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Yeah but how many guys keep the pace they are on for 16 games? And dont forget that the numbers you got for this sample were from the easy part of our schedule. We have a tough road ahead of us.
Well Denver had the #3 ranked D coming in to yesterday and he had one of his better games statistically, and outside of the KC game he's been pretty consistent.

If the protection is there for him, who knows?
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:12 PM   #1109
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by DBUCHANON101 View Post
Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - SB XXIII
Joe Montana, San Francisco 49ers - SB XXIV
Jeff Hostetler, New York Giants - SB XXV
Mark Rypien, Washington Redskins - SB XXVI
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - SB XXVII
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - SB XXVIII
Steve Young, San Francisco 49ers - SB XXIX
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys - SB XXX
Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers - SB XXXI
John Elway, Denver Broncos - SB XXXII
John Elway, Denver Broncos - SB XXXIII
Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams - SB XXXIV
Trent Dilfer, Baltimore Ravens - SB XXXV
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - SB XXXVI
Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - SB XXXVII
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - SB XXXVIII
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - SB XXXIX
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - SB XL
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - SB XLI
Eli Manning, New York Giants - SB XLII
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - SB XLIII

Past SB winning QB's, id say this is a pretty good list. Nothing avg about them. But once here and there you will find a name that had a GREAT Defense that carried the team to the title but like i said for the most part these guys led their team to the "W". And the ones who rode their defense to the title,how often do you see a defense of that caliber? not very often do you see a defense like that of the 85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, or the Bucs of 2002. In these rare cases i believe these defenses actually outscored the opposing team all by themselves in the SB.
In the post you had earlier where you stated if JC had an avg offensive supporting cast around him he could be a SB contending QB with a great defense. Well i think you would be hard pressed to find a pro QB who wouldnt, and thats the point, that you are more likely to win a title with a top QB with a top 10 defense than you are to have the stars align just right and have a great defense that wins the games for you.
Campbell is a decent QB and he's the best we have. Does it have to be championship level or trash for you? He's not elite and he's not garbage. Trying to make a strong case either way is pretty foolish.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:12 PM   #1110
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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One thing I am sure of. The Redskins oline has been a major problem for a long long very long time.

The Samuels/Jansen combo was terribly overrated from day one.

The line JC has played behind over his entire pro career has been a vastly overrated unit IMO.

This year the line is just a freakin nightmare. Who knows how good the guy is?

JC isn't any kind of hall of famer, but he has plenty of good skills.
Its the same line that TC used when he took us to the playoffs. and its also the same line that CP ran behind when he was having very good seasons for us. Id say it was above avg until recently when injuries/age began to set in.
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