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Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Old 01-04-2010, 10:55 AM   #1351
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
agree on every point. Still not sold that JC is a franchise QB. Jim Zorn didn't think so.
Zorn had a lot of interesting thoughts.


We do not need a better QB than JC though. The team has a lot of weapons on offense: Moss, Kelly, Thomas, Mitchell at WR. Cooley and Davis are the best TE tandem in the NFL. RB is a little unclear but easily repairable with a single draft pick later in the draft or a FA pickup to supplement what we have. Trading Betts looks like a great option to upgrade through the draft, getting an extra 4th-round pick for him to use on the line could let us use a 2nd or 4th on a RB if we use the 1st on a OT. We could get a L. McCoy-type back to supplement Portis, who is beginning to look like Westbrook at this point of his career.
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Old 01-04-2010, 11:01 AM   #1352
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by Buster View Post
Zorn had a lot of interesting thoughts.


We do not need a better QB than JC though. The team has a lot of weapons on offense: Moss, Kelly, Thomas, Mitchell at WR. Cooley and Davis are the best TE tandem in the NFL. RB is a little unclear but easily repairable with a single draft pick later in the draft or a FA pickup to supplement what we have. Trading Betts looks like a great option to upgrade through the draft, getting an extra 4th-round pick for him to use on the line could let us use a 2nd or 4th on a RB if we use the 1st on a OT. We could get a L. McCoy-type back to supplement Portis, who is beginning to look like Westbrook at this point of his career.
Buster...are you Jason Campbell's dad?
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Old 01-04-2010, 11:07 AM   #1353
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

Buster, thanks for your diligence in keeping this up week to week. Campbell did what many said he couldn't do-improve in virtually every aspect of his game-and did so in the most trying of circumstances.

I'd be interested to see what he would do with Shanahan and a rebuilt offensive line. The talent is there at the WR and TE positions, we need the upgrade the line and the running game regardless of the QB.
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Old 01-04-2010, 11:26 AM   #1354
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

I agree Paintrain and thanks for the stats Buster. I thought JC did pretty well with one of the worse, if not THE worse, o-lines in the NFL and a mostly non-existant running game.
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Old 01-04-2010, 12:08 PM   #1355
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Buster...are you Jason Campbell's dad?
You caught me. The black eye actually came from me for throwing 2 picks in the Giants game.
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Old 01-04-2010, 01:03 PM   #1356
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by Buster View Post
[SIZE=2]FINAL stats/assessment:
I love how you bolded the stats that Campbell did the best in, while leaving more important stats unemphasized. Kinda tells it's own tale

Here's the truth, Campbell's career averages (stats that can be compared to other QB's regardless of number of games played) among 38 active QB's:

TD percentage: 3.4% tied for 30th out a 38 active QB's (utterly horrible, JP Losman is more likely to throw a TD on a given passing play, reflects unwillingnes to take chances)
Completion %: 61.2% 18th
(decent, but improved by his tendency to check down too often, also shows his unwillingness to take chances)
Yards Per Attempt: 6.6 tied for 26th
(reflects his tendency to check down)
Yards per completion: 10.8 tied for 33rd out of 38
(really reinforces the fact that he tends to be too timid and checks down too quickly and too often)
Interception % 2.3% tied for 4th of 38
(Fantastic! freakishly high for a mediocre QB... because he's checking down too often which means less risk of interception)
Pass Attempts per game: 31.5 11th
(interesting that he's 11th in attempts while being so low in yards per completion, if it needed reinforcement, then this is cement).

Everything in his stats points to the QB he really is, a mediocre QB, a nice guy, a tough guy, but overly conservative, hessitant and timid with his decision making.

Last edited by 44 70 chip; 01-04-2010 at 02:08 PM.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:33 AM   #1357
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by 44 70 chip View Post
I love how you bolded the stats that Campbell did the best in, while leaving more important stats unemphasized. Kinda tells it's own tale

Here's the truth, Campbell's career averages (stats that can be compared to other QB's regardless of number of games played) among 38 active QB's:

TD percentage: 3.4% tied for 30th out a 38 active QB's (utterly horrible, JP Losman is more likely to throw a TD on a given passing play, reflects unwillingnes to take chances)
Completion %: 61.2% 18th
(decent, but improved by his tendency to check down too often, also shows his unwillingness to take chances)
Yards Per Attempt: 6.6 tied for 26th
(reflects his tendency to check down)
Yards per completion: 10.8 tied for 33rd out of 38
(really reinforces the fact that he tends to be too timid and checks down too quickly and too often)
Interception % 2.3% tied for 4th of 38
(Fantastic! freakishly high for a mediocre QB... because he's checking down too often which means less risk of interception)
Pass Attempts per game: 31.5 11th
(interesting that he's 11th in attempts while being so low in yards per completion, if it needed reinforcement, then this is cement).

Everything in his stats points to the QB he really is, a mediocre QB, a nice guy, a tough guy, but overly conservative, hessitant and timid with his decision making.
You love to accuse him of checkdowns out of preference, but with no time to throw and no protection, his short passes were out of necessity. In fact, most of the time, all that was possible with this joke of a line was short passes and screens...WRs can't run downfield and complete routes when the QB is getting nailed 3 steps into his dropback. Early in his career and new with the Zorn offense (if you can call it that), you'd be right about his "timidity" and hesitation, but if you actually paid attention this season, you would have watched his game mature and some signs of real leadership and decisiveness appear, even without much help from his line and teammates.

You're also missing the entire point of this massive thread and my work, it's not to say he's the next Johnny Unitas...it was to prove and support my argument that he was the best of these three QBs that were being discussed as the 2009 Redskins quarterback. He was clearly better than the other two and keeping him was the correct choice. I believe he's earned his place on the team. I realize you're new here and joined halfway through this thread, but no one is saying he's a top NFL QB yet. Potentially he could be with a real offensive line and proper leadership (like Shanahan), but at this time, he's just a better fit than Cutler or Sanchez for the team. That's all we were debating in here.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:38 AM   #1358
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Build a strong team from the inside out and you won't have to worry about finding the next superstar QB who has to win you games on his arm alone.
You lie...what a crazy idea!
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:40 AM   #1359
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by 44 70 chip View Post
I love how you bolded the stats that Campbell did the best in, while leaving more important stats unemphasized. Kinda tells it's own tale

Here's the truth, Campbell's career averages (stats that can be compared to other QB's regardless of number of games played) among 38 active QB's:

TD percentage: 3.4% tied for 30th out a 38 active QB's (utterly horrible, JP Losman is more likely to throw a TD on a given passing play, reflects unwillingnes to take chances)
Completion %: 61.2% 18th
(decent, but improved by his tendency to check down too often, also shows his unwillingness to take chances)
Yards Per Attempt: 6.6 tied for 26th
(reflects his tendency to check down)
Yards per completion: 10.8 tied for 33rd out of 38
(really reinforces the fact that he tends to be too timid and checks down too quickly and too often)
Interception % 2.3% tied for 4th of 38
(Fantastic! freakishly high for a mediocre QB... because he's checking down too often which means less risk of interception)
Pass Attempts per game: 31.5 11th
(interesting that he's 11th in attempts while being so low in yards per completion, if it needed reinforcement, then this is cement).

Everything in his stats points to the QB he really is, a mediocre QB, a nice guy, a tough guy, but overly conservative, hessitant and timid with his decision making.
The numbers absolutely support the narrative that Jason Campbell is unwilling to look downfield, but I've found that once you put the tape on him, the very worst he can be accused of is reacting to the defense/occasionally looking at the rush.

Basically, the one criticism of him that the statistics back falls apart with additional evidence.

I have legitimate concern about his ability to be an accurate QB in the future, but I do know he has been an accurate passer in the past.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:43 AM   #1360
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

Whether Campbell was the better choice than the other two guys mentioned here for 2009 and whether he was the better choice for for 2009 and beyond are two different things.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:53 AM   #1361
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Whether Campbell was the better choice than the other two guys mentioned here for 2009 and whether he was the better choice for for 2009 and beyond are two different things.
Until we see him with a competent line, we'll never know.

I do believe for 2009 alone, he was far better than a turn-over prone rookie or an interception machine with a short temper though. If either of the other two were in burgundy and gold, the results would have been far worse than Campbell's salvaging of the broken offense. Sanchez would've hit IR at about Week 10 and Cutler would have thrown at least 35 picks without Forte and his college buddy to throw to.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:59 AM   #1362
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

For the future, obviously the jury is out on Sanchez. He's promising but still needs a lot of seasoning.

Cutler really needs to get the INTs under control for him to take a step forward. If he continues on like this he's going to be a coach killer for sure.

JC obviously has plenty of room for improvement. That said, as we know the situation around him this year was less than ideal and he still put up numbers better than half the starters in this league. I'm looking forward to seeing what Shanahan can do for him, assuming JC is brought back of course.
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Old 01-07-2010, 09:00 PM   #1363
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

He is an improved QB however his poor fundamentals by them selves will keep him from ever being the guy his supporters want him to be.

As far as the Sanches/Campbell/Cutler thing goes, I noticed a marked lack of allowances for either of the other guys, that Campbell enjoys from his supporters.

Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...
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Old 01-07-2010, 09:15 PM   #1364
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...
You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:12 PM   #1365
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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The numbers absolutely support the narrative that Jason Campbell is unwilling to look downfield, but I've found that once you put the tape on him, the very worst he can be accused of is reacting to the defense/occasionally looking at the rush.

Basically, the one criticism of him that the statistics back falls apart with additional evidence.
I don't agree, everything I've seen supports the conclusion painted by his career numbers. I arrived at the conclusion without ever looking at statistics. I knew he was hesitant the first couple times his coaches got impatient with him for hesitating to throw to an open receiver... And have seen this behavior survive two head coaches, both of whom at one time or another have talked publically about Campbell needing to "trust his eyes" and "take what they've given him"

As far as Tape goes, unless you have access to better broader views than the TV stations typically tight focus give you I don't know how you're analyzing coverages...
Unless you're an archivist for NFL films I'll politely decline to comment.

In the end this isn't even Jason's biggest problem... He has a plethora of poor fundamentals from how he sometimes carries the ball when he moves in the pocket (at his hips in one hand), his ponderous wind up, his tendency to move away from ghost rushers, and get tangled up in real ones, his lack of peripheral vision (AKA ability to feel blind side pressure) his lack of studiousness (he is poor enough at reading defenses that he's not allowed to audible) he doesn't see blitzes (his center calls out the adjustments. Campbell is one of the few Veteran Qb's in the league that doesn't direct his protection), he often looks confused to the point that he forgets and leaves his mouth guard wedged in his helmet about 10-20% of his snaps. You may call that picking nits, but I call it a tell tail of poor habits and consistency. And an inability to change those poor habbits: See: the countless times he's been coached to keep the ball at his chest with BOTH HANDS, but he still can't do it consistently every snap (he has gotten better, late this year in particular), See also: his inability to slide for how many seasons now?.

The fact that he has some problems with his mechanics, some problems with the mental side of the game, and some problems with his fundamentals wouldn't be such a big deal if he could show that he can be coached out of those problems...
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