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Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Old 01-05-2010, 11:53 AM   #1381
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by SmootSmack View Post
Whether Campbell was the better choice than the other two guys mentioned here for 2009 and whether he was the better choice for for 2009 and beyond are two different things.
Until we see him with a competent line, we'll never know.

I do believe for 2009 alone, he was far better than a turn-over prone rookie or an interception machine with a short temper though. If either of the other two were in burgundy and gold, the results would have been far worse than Campbell's salvaging of the broken offense. Sanchez would've hit IR at about Week 10 and Cutler would have thrown at least 35 picks without Forte and his college buddy to throw to.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:59 AM   #1382
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

For the future, obviously the jury is out on Sanchez. He's promising but still needs a lot of seasoning.

Cutler really needs to get the INTs under control for him to take a step forward. If he continues on like this he's going to be a coach killer for sure.

JC obviously has plenty of room for improvement. That said, as we know the situation around him this year was less than ideal and he still put up numbers better than half the starters in this league. I'm looking forward to seeing what Shanahan can do for him, assuming JC is brought back of course.
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Old 01-07-2010, 09:00 PM   #1383
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

He is an improved QB however his poor fundamentals by them selves will keep him from ever being the guy his supporters want him to be.

As far as the Sanches/Campbell/Cutler thing goes, I noticed a marked lack of allowances for either of the other guys, that Campbell enjoys from his supporters.

Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...
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Old 01-07-2010, 09:15 PM   #1384
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...
You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:12 PM   #1385
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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The numbers absolutely support the narrative that Jason Campbell is unwilling to look downfield, but I've found that once you put the tape on him, the very worst he can be accused of is reacting to the defense/occasionally looking at the rush.

Basically, the one criticism of him that the statistics back falls apart with additional evidence.
I don't agree, everything I've seen supports the conclusion painted by his career numbers. I arrived at the conclusion without ever looking at statistics. I knew he was hesitant the first couple times his coaches got impatient with him for hesitating to throw to an open receiver... And have seen this behavior survive two head coaches, both of whom at one time or another have talked publically about Campbell needing to "trust his eyes" and "take what they've given him"

As far as Tape goes, unless you have access to better broader views than the TV stations typically tight focus give you I don't know how you're analyzing coverages...
Unless you're an archivist for NFL films I'll politely decline to comment.

In the end this isn't even Jason's biggest problem... He has a plethora of poor fundamentals from how he sometimes carries the ball when he moves in the pocket (at his hips in one hand), his ponderous wind up, his tendency to move away from ghost rushers, and get tangled up in real ones, his lack of peripheral vision (AKA ability to feel blind side pressure) his lack of studiousness (he is poor enough at reading defenses that he's not allowed to audible) he doesn't see blitzes (his center calls out the adjustments. Campbell is one of the few Veteran Qb's in the league that doesn't direct his protection), he often looks confused to the point that he forgets and leaves his mouth guard wedged in his helmet about 10-20% of his snaps. You may call that picking nits, but I call it a tell tail of poor habits and consistency. And an inability to change those poor habbits: See: the countless times he's been coached to keep the ball at his chest with BOTH HANDS, but he still can't do it consistently every snap (he has gotten better, late this year in particular), See also: his inability to slide for how many seasons now?.

The fact that he has some problems with his mechanics, some problems with the mental side of the game, and some problems with his fundamentals wouldn't be such a big deal if he could show that he can be coached out of those problems...
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:24 PM   #1386
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better.
No he isn't... "you like him better" and "he is better" are two different things man.
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:42 PM   #1387
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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No he isn't... "you like him better" and "he is better" are two different things man.
Correct, but in this case, pointing that out is just sour grapes.
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:49 PM   #1388
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by 44 70 chip View Post
I don't agree, everything I've seen supports the conclusion painted by his career numbers. I arrived at the conclusion without ever looking at statistics. I knew he was hesitant the first couple times his coaches got impatient with him for hesitating to throw to an open receiver... And have seen this behavior survive two head coaches, both of whom at one time or another have talked publically about Campbell needing to "trust his eyes" and "take what they've given him"

As far as Tape goes, unless you have access to better broader views than the TV stations typically tight focus give you I don't know how you're analyzing coverages...
Unless you're an archivist for NFL films I'll politely decline to comment.

In the end this isn't even Jason's biggest problem... He has a plethora of poor fundamentals from how he sometimes carries the ball when he moves in the pocket (at his hips in one hand), his ponderous wind up, his tendency to move away from ghost rushers, and get tangled up in real ones, his lack of peripheral vision (AKA ability to feel blind side pressure) his lack of studiousness (he is poor enough at reading defenses that he's not allowed to audible) he doesn't see blitzes (his center calls out the adjustments. Campbell is one of the few Veteran Qb's in the league that doesn't direct his protection), he often looks confused to the point that he forgets and leaves his mouth guard wedged in his helmet about 10-20% of his snaps. You may call that picking nits, but I call it a tell tail of poor habits and consistency. And an inability to change those poor habbits: See: the countless times he's been coached to keep the ball at his chest with BOTH HANDS, but he still can't do it consistently every snap (he has gotten better, late this year in particular), See also: his inability to slide for how many seasons now?.

The fact that he has some problems with his mechanics, some problems with the mental side of the game, and some problems with his fundamentals wouldn't be such a big deal if he could show that he can be coached out of those problems...
Tripp is not an NFL archivist (as far as I'm concerned), but he has more knowledge than you and I. If you doubt this check the archives and see some of his game analysis.
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:52 PM   #1389
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by 44 70 chip View Post
I don't agree, everything I've seen supports the conclusion painted by his career numbers. I arrived at the conclusion without ever looking at statistics. I knew he was hesitant the first couple times his coaches got impatient with him for hesitating to throw to an open receiver... And have seen this behavior survive two head coaches, both of whom at one time or another have talked publically about Campbell needing to "trust his eyes" and "take what they've given him"

As far as Tape goes, unless you have access to better broader views than the TV stations typically tight focus give you I don't know how you're analyzing coverages...
Unless you're an archivist for NFL films I'll politely decline to comment.

In the end this isn't even Jason's biggest problem... He has a plethora of poor fundamentals from how he sometimes carries the ball when he moves in the pocket (at his hips in one hand), his ponderous wind up, his tendency to move away from ghost rushers, and get tangled up in real ones, his lack of peripheral vision (AKA ability to feel blind side pressure) his lack of studiousness (he is poor enough at reading defenses that he's not allowed to audible) he doesn't see blitzes (his center calls out the adjustments. Campbell is one of the few Veteran Qb's in the league that doesn't direct his protection), he often looks confused to the point that he forgets and leaves his mouth guard wedged in his helmet about 10-20% of his snaps. You may call that picking nits, but I call it a tell tail of poor habits and consistency. And an inability to change those poor habbits: See: the countless times he's been coached to keep the ball at his chest with BOTH HANDS, but he still can't do it consistently every snap (he has gotten better, late this year in particular), See also: his inability to slide for how many seasons now?.

The fact that he has some problems with his mechanics, some problems with the mental side of the game, and some problems with his fundamentals wouldn't be such a big deal if he could show that he can be coached out of those problems...
I think, in many ways, Campbell's inability to slide typifies my issues with him as a player. It's not that sliding is a particularly important skill, certainly no more important than establishing the ever-important ability to wear a mouthguard, but Campbell's weaknesses are mostly those small things.

In part, he's an extention of Zorn in that he has all the intangibles, rarely is fooled by the coverage, can make a play with his legs, etc., but I think he has game management issues and it's the quarterback minutae that I think will prevent him from reaching an elite level.

The bottom line is that it's all nitpicking, and if every player on our team did their job as well, but no better than Jason Campbell, we'd be a 9 or 10 win team every season. You might win a super bowl once every ten or fifteen years. The reason we haven't been to the playoffs but twice in the last ten seasons is because hardly anyone on this team has been as dependable as our quarterbacks. Particularly on offense, but the defense has had it's fair share of poor performers over the years as well.
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Old 01-07-2010, 10:55 PM   #1390
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

Career numbers both have played almost the same number of games.

Code:

        Comp % TD%  Int % Yards/attempt Yards Completion QB rating
Campbell 61.2   3.4  2.3      6.6          10.8               82.3
Cutler   61.9   4.6  3.5      7.1          11.6               83.8


Last minute disclaimer: I'm not saying Cutler is the second coming of Brett Favre, but Favre had a season in which he threw 19 TD's and 24 Int's IMO anyone who calls Cutler a failure over this past season is doing it without much basis in reality.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:00 PM   #1391
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).
Cutler had a bad year. It's happens, even to the best guys. One year doesn't define the guy. On top of that he just didn't have any type of supporting cast and he was trying to do too much. His best wr's are the TE's. Kurt Warner had some less than average years and he came back to be a top QB. Cutler rebounded pretty well the last few weeks. I still believe Cutler holds more value around the NFL than JC does.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:04 PM   #1392
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Originally Posted by 44 70 chip View Post
Career numbers both have played almost the same number of games.

Code:

        Comp % TD%  Int % Yards/attempt Yards Completion QB rating
Campbell 61.2   3.4  2.3      6.6          10.8               82.3
Cutler   61.9   4.6  3.5      7.1          11.6               83.8


Last minute disclaimer: I'm not saying Cutler is the second coming of Brett Favre, but Fave had a season in which he threw 19 TD's and 24 Int's IMO anyone who calls Cutler a failure over this past season is doing it without much basis in reality.
Not calling Cutler a failure over this season.

I see two very similar quarterbacks statistically, Cutler with a slight edge in most stats, definitive edge in Y/A.

Anecdotally, though, there's some sort of a discount rate that should be applied to Cutler's Denver numbers just because the talent around him definitely could carry the day. I'm not going to dictate what that should be, only that when you consider that Cutler played three seasons in Denver, you'd expect him to have a very large edge in conventional statistics. At least as large as the gap that say, Ben Roethlisberger, has on Campbell.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:06 PM   #1393
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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Cutler had a bad year. It's happens, even to the best guys. One year doesn't define the guy. On top of that he just didn't have any type of supporting cast and he was trying to do too much. His best wr's are the TE's. Kurt Warner had some less than average years and he came back to be a top QB. Cutler rebounded pretty well the last few weeks. I still believe Cutler holds more value around the NFL than JC does.
Perhaps he does. I think the evidence is clear that Campbell is better, but those who mis-valued Cutler last year are certainly going to be slow to admit the mistake. I mean, just look around here.

Cutler should rebound next season and get back to the top half of quarterbacks in the league, which is where Campbell is right now. I'm sure there's hope that Cutler will eventually regain his probowl form in Chicago, possibly legitimate hope, but I'm not sure why that would be a better bet than Campbell blossoming under Shanahan. Seems like a lot of hoping on both ends.
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:08 PM   #1394
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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I think, in many ways, Campbell's inability to slide typifies my issues with him as a player. It's not that sliding is a particularly important skill
I don't think we're disagreeing on a whole lot here. Personally I want the Skins to keep looking for a franchise QB, if they let Campbell compete for the starting job for the next year or two while they do it, so be it...
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Old 01-07-2010, 11:11 PM   #1395
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Re: Campbell's numbers dont lie

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I don't think we're disagreeing on a whole lot here. Personally I want the Skins to keep looking for a franchise QB, if they let Campbell compete for the starting job for the next year or two while they do it, so be it...
Yeah, I think our opinions differ a lot more on Cutler than on Campbell.
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