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Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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Old 12-29-2009, 08:31 PM   #16
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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Originally Posted by redskins5044 View Post
i think im confusing myself, does it go off this years strength of schedule? also the team with the easier schedule drafts ahead of the team with the harder schedule? that makes no sense to me.
Yeah... look at it this way...

Team A: 4-12, opponents win % = 44%

Team B: 4-12, opponents win % = 54%

Which team is "crappier" and in need of the higher pick?

Team A obviously, because they played weaker teams and won only 4 games... Whereas Team B played relatively strong teams, so winning only 4 games makes "more sense"
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Old 12-29-2009, 08:44 PM   #17
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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I'm telling guys. One of either two scenarios will play out. Either we will pick Bradford first and 2 or 3 offensive line prospects after him or we draft Okung and trade up from our second round pick to select McCoy, after which we will probably draft a few more offensive lineman. My money is on the Bradford scenario but either one is fine for me, even though I don't like 2nd round QB's.
I think the second scenario is a likelihood. Before, when we were playing well, it looked like we weren't going to pick high enough to land Okung. Now, we could be picking third or fourth, and I'd imagine that only Suh, Clausen, and Berry would come off the board prior to our pick.
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Old 12-29-2009, 09:41 PM   #18
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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i think im confusing myself, does it go off this years strength of schedule? also the team with the easier schedule drafts ahead of the team with the harder schedule? that makes no sense to me.
You got it right: For playoff berths, head-to-head play is important. For the draft it is unimportant outside of playoff teams, because draft position ties for non-playoff teams are broken down only by strength of schedule. So given the numbers listed above we would draft higher than KC or Tampa. I know the part about strength of schedule seems counterintuitive at first but it actually makes some sense. If your team and my team win the same number of games, yet your opponents were tougher (see strength of schedule), your team must be better. It's like a footrace in which we tie but you had farther to run, hence you must be faster.
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Old 12-29-2009, 09:44 PM   #19
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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The rams are most definately selecting between Clausen and Okung.
Since the Rams took a tackle high last year, what makes you think that the Rams would take Okung before Suh or some other player?

I think drafting #3 puts Okung in much easier reach.
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Old 12-29-2009, 11:17 PM   #20
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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As far as trade down value, when was the last time you saw a top 5 pick traded? The amount a team has to give up is unreal.

I still really want Suh, but doubt it'll happen. Okung would be a great consolation.
Last year? Browns traded their pick to the Jets so they could take Sanchez.
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Old 12-29-2009, 11:19 PM   #21
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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I think the second scenario is a likelihood. Before, when we were playing well, it looked like we weren't going to pick high enough to land Okung. Now, we could be picking third or fourth, and I'd imagine that only Suh, Clausen, and Berry would come off the board prior to our pick.
I dunno it seems like every year a team is willing to go LT in the top 2 picks...from what I understand Okung is the only awesome LT talent. I would think he goes fast.
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Old 12-29-2009, 11:32 PM   #22
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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The rams are most definately selecting between Clausen and Okung.
If that's the case I think they take Clausen.
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Old 12-30-2009, 12:01 AM   #23
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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I dunno it seems like every year a team is willing to go LT in the top 2 picks...from what I understand Okung is the only awesome LT talent. I would think he goes fast.
Detroit might take him, but no one else that picks before us would.

Detroit's offensive line was actually pretty good this year, but what they see is what they get in Jeff Backus. Detroit has their hands full trying to develop Matt Stafford from scratch, and Calvin Johnson's development into an all time great seems far fetched at this point. I think Detroit is going to end up leaning on their current line while they rebuild the defense.
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Old 12-30-2009, 12:18 AM   #24
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

Someone did the calculations on another board...

Redskins Rooting Interests for the last week (Semi-long) Updated for Week 17 - EXTREMESKINS.com
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Old 12-30-2009, 12:33 AM   #25
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

Here's the draft prospects....

DraftDebacled: 2010 NFL Mock Draft Prospects
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Old 12-30-2009, 12:51 AM   #26
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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As far as trade down value, when was the last time you saw a top 5 pick traded?
Last year
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Old 12-30-2009, 01:19 AM   #27
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

There are still three HUGE factors left in the draft 1. The remaining bowl games 2. The Combine 3. Players Pro Days

There is always that player or two that has a awesome combine & pro day & some don't have go showings.
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Old 12-30-2009, 02:07 AM   #28
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

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There are still three HUGE factors left in the draft 1. The remaining bowl games 2. The Combine 3. Players Pro Days

There is always that player or two that has a awesome combine & pro day & some don't have go showings.
Your absolutly correct. Some will advance others will drop. Usually though the top 3-4 players are still the top 3-4 players. They might shuffle spots but they stay up there. Unless there is a character question. Anyone got dirt on the players we are looking at? Don't let it out too soon though, you don't want the news to get a head of steam and fizzle out prior to draft day. You want it to show up right around pro day and let it fester so other teams get scared about the draftee.

Start digging boys.
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Old 12-30-2009, 09:52 AM   #29
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

Let's be honest, we have way to many holes on this team to focus on one player. If can pick as high as 3rd, I think we should trade down. I don't any standout qb's in this draft. I know a lot of people like Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen. To me, neither one of these guys are the second coming of Peton Manning. I think both of them will be good, but not great.

As far as Okung, I think he's going to be a great player. But he's not the only great OT in this draft. I can name at least 3 guys that's going to be pretty solid. If I was Allen, I would trade down and aquire more picks. I want all of y'all to remember we build a good offense a great OL. Right now, it's nothing great about this OL. So we need more than just one player.
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Old 12-30-2009, 10:16 AM   #30
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Re: Can We Draft as High as 3rd Overall?

Yea, there's solid talent in the late first, early second round too. I'll back whatever MS/BA do here. We do have a ton of holes on our team. It's going to take a few years of good drafts.
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