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I think I found the next Tom Brady..

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Old 03-08-2011, 12:39 AM   #16
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

If you're looking for patterns then the next Tom Brady is probably going to be available around 2023.

Johnny Unitas - 1955
Joe Montana - 1979
Tom Brady - 2000

These guys aren't available every year. They are once in a generation type players. Heck they even end up skipping a generation. In short when Tom Brady has been retired for a few years then you can start looking. Otherwise you MIGHT find Matt Cassel, Tony Romo, or Warren Moon if you're lucky.
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Old 03-08-2011, 12:43 AM   #17
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

What makes Unitas, Montana, and Brady similar? Just out of curiosity
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Old 03-08-2011, 12:54 AM   #18
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmootSmack View Post
What makes Unitas, Montana, and Brady similar? Just out of curiosity
All three were afterthoughts on draft day (9th round, 3rd Round, 6th Round). All three went on to win at least three championships (Unitas was knocked out of his third against the Cowboys in Super Bowl V but still gets credit for starting the game). All three have played in 4 Championship games. All three have defined or will define the QB position for their generation. Montana came into the league 24 years after Unitas and Brady came into the league 21 years after Montana. So on average a "Tom Brady" will come along every 22.5 years.

And now it has come to my attention that their draft round needs to be dividable by 3.

Still the thing to take away from this fun with numbers is that even if there is a "next Tom Brady" the chances of finding him are ridiculously low. By my definition there have only been 3 of these guys in the last 56 years.
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Old 03-08-2011, 12:56 AM   #19
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

Elway and Brady are the best QBs of all time to Me but again that for Another discussion
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Old 03-08-2011, 01:53 AM   #20
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

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Originally Posted by CultBrennan59 View Post
Ricky Stanzi QB, Iowa, I believe will be the next Tom Brady. Why?
If you look at their stats they are almost identical to when Brady was in college, let me list off some of their similarities:

- Both played in the Big Ten
- Both have almost identical winning records
- Both led their teams to major bowl wins and were named MVP
- Both have the same knock on them coming out of college to the pros; "Good arm, highly accurate, highly intelligent, frail framed, winning QB's"
- Both are 6'4, 210-ish lb's
- Both have alright, but not highly touted NFL, receivers to throw to in college
- (Even though Stanzi still has a few more games to play) their touchdown to interception ratio is almost identical.
- they both take what the defense gives them.
- they both played in NFL systems in college
- they both are graded in the later rounds of getting drafted
- they both kind of look alike


Now is Ricky going to be exactly like Tom Brady? No most likely not, but theres definitely a good chance that he ends up being almost as good, and he's definitely worth a draft pick in the 2nd round range IMO.

And being that Shanahan right now isn't too satisfied with McNabb we may take a chance on a guy like this in the draft, especially if we're looking at all these other college QB's right now (Locker,Luck). The one thing Stanzi is which Brady isn't; More mobile, he runs a 4.8 forty.
The relevant parts of your description of Stanzi sound more like Ponder to me.

I'm not sure about the other parts, i.e., playing in the Big Ten is not really a predictor of future success.
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Old 03-08-2011, 01:59 AM   #21
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

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Originally Posted by SmootSmack View Post
What makes Unitas, Montana, and Brady similar? Just out of curiosity
It's definitely not the haircut. LOL.



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Old 03-08-2011, 08:12 AM   #22
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

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Originally Posted by rbanerjee23 View Post
so any quarterback with similar college stats is the next Brady? Stupid thread...

Are you going to kick his dog too?
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Old 03-08-2011, 09:06 AM   #23
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirtbag59 View Post
All three were afterthoughts on draft day (9th round, 3rd Round, 6th Round). All three went on to win at least three championships (Unitas was knocked out of his third against the Cowboys in Super Bowl V but still gets credit for starting the game). All three have played in 4 Championship games. All three have defined or will define the QB position for their generation. Montana came into the league 24 years after Unitas and Brady came into the league 21 years after Montana. So on average a "Tom Brady" will come along every 22.5 years.

And now it has come to my attention that their draft round needs to be dividable by 3.

Still the thing to take away from this fun with numbers is that even if there is a "next Tom Brady" the chances of finding him are ridiculously low. By my definition there have only been 3 of these guys in the last 56 years.
Smoot asked & you responded! Nice summary dirt. I hate to use him as a standard, but how often does the 'next Tony Romo' come along? I mean, the guy is pretty good but he's great for an UDFA. I can't think of any other qb at present that was undrafted.
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Old 03-08-2011, 09:09 AM   #24
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmootSmack View Post
What makes Unitas, Montana, and Brady similar? Just out of curiosity
"Winners"....aside from that I digress.
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Old 03-08-2011, 09:32 AM   #25
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Too bad we don't have a second round pick....or a third round pick
Yes we do. Just no third I think.
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Old 03-08-2011, 09:39 AM   #26
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

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Originally Posted by CultBrennan59 View Post
^ like I said his arm isn't great, but then again that was a knock on Brady coming out of college, so again, they're similar and I think he'll do just fine.
I agree, arm strength and mobility are the 2 most over-rated factors in QB evaluation. Lots of QBs have cannons but cant hit water from a boat. Dan Marino was exactly mobile but he did ok because he had pocket presence and knew when to get rid of the ball. Accuracy and smarts are the 2 most important things an NFL QB needs.
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Old 03-08-2011, 12:03 PM   #27
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

If lack Brady he falls to the 6th round than sure I'm game. Brady also had excellent coaching in NE to help him develop into the player he is today.
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Old 03-08-2011, 12:33 PM   #28
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

I just posted this up because I too am a Hawkeye fan, and ran across this on Hawkeyenation.com

Here are some links from a Viking site where they have broken down the quarterbacks using "grading systems" that others have mentioned.

This is the brakedown of the first link I posed An Even More Accurate System Of Grading College Quarterbacks? - Daily Norseman

Here is the The Parcells Principle

And Finally The 26-27-60 system Wonderlick scores still pending.

Stanzi does well in all of them. He is 0.2 away in completion percentage from passing the 26-27-60.

At the combine he was throwing to a spot, and placing the ball in a place that was only catchable by his receiver. They even commented on this during the coverage on NFL Network.

By all means I am not saying draft Stanzi in the 1st or 2nd round. I am just pointing to all of this evidence that there is something about him that could be great. I wouldn't mind drafting defense early and trading down in the 2nd to get another pick to use on him.

As for great coaching, Ricky has been working with Tom's QB coach... College football: Stanzi ready, thanks to Brady's coach - news-herald.com
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Old 03-08-2011, 02:29 PM   #29
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

So, we're supposed to believe someone named CultBrennan59 when it comes to scouting QBs?
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Old 03-08-2011, 03:16 PM   #30
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Re: I think I found the next Tom Brady..

Tom Brady shows off ponytail, dance moves in Rio | ProFootballTalk
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