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Old 12-14-2004, 05:34 PM   #1
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Angry Bulletin Board Material for SF Game!!

Before I tell you how the public is showing huge disrespect for the Washington Redskins of 2004, let me be sure everyone understands something about betting lines in Las Vegas.

When the oddmskers set the line, they are NOT setting the line where they think the score difference will come out. The books are not in the business of gambling; they are in the business of making money off people who gamble. They do not care who wins any game nor do they care what the differential is - as long as they have set their line correctly.

The betting line is the oddmsakers' best guess at a number such that the same amount of money is bet on either side of the line. They may think a game will be won by two TDs but if the ALSO think the balance point for the public is 6 points, the line will be at 6 points.

Since you bet $110 to win $100 against the spread in Vegas, if they can balance the books, they keep the 10% "juice" and make a profit. That's why they are not in the gambling business; they are in the business of making money off people who gamble.

So much for the preamble...

The line for the Redskins/49ers game this weekend is Skins - 3.5. That is not a typographical error, folks. That means that the oddsmakers are relatively confident that there will be the same amount of money put on either side of that number. Sometimes they are off a bit and the line has to move a little, but this line won't be 8 or 9 by game time; you can bet on that statement! If you want to know why I say that they are generally correct in guessing where the public betting sentiment is, just go to Vegas and look at all the infrastructure costs there. They don't pay for them by losing more money on football betting than they take in!

So the betting public thinks that the Redskins this year are only about a field goal better than the sorry-assed SF 49ers who would probably only be a 7 point favorite over USC. That is an insult of great proportion. Last week, the Arizona "Bleeping" Cardinals were 7 point favorites over that same sorry-assed 49er team. Now the Skins are only 3.5 favorites?

That betting line should annoy the bejeepers out of the Redskins' players and they ought to use it as motivation to go out and put a major beat down on the 49ers. The Skins are 10 points better than SF; with that news, they ought to win by 17.
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Old 12-14-2004, 06:10 PM   #2
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home teams always get +3 points then other odds are put in
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Old 12-14-2004, 06:20 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duffman003
home teams always get +3 points then other odds are put in
yeah I was just going to say that

So if the Skins were home they would be 6.5 point favorites.

Is this correct SC? Doesn't the home team start off at 3 point favs?
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Old 12-14-2004, 06:34 PM   #4
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That 3 point line is kind of a rule of thumb, but not etched in stone.

The really insulting thing is that the Niners coach has all but lobbied to leave his team. The players are quitting on him, and he on them. I believe they started Ken Dorsey last week, who makes Danny Wuerfful look like Johnny U.

Skins -3.5???
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Old 12-14-2004, 06:50 PM   #5
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A 6.5 point spread (factoring in home-field advantage) isn't ridiculous considering the kinds of points we've put up this season. That said, we'll easily beat it.
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Old 12-14-2004, 07:02 PM   #6
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how much were we supposed to the Eagles by
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Old 12-14-2004, 07:06 PM   #7
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I believe Dorsey is starting for the 9er's these day's if he's starting against us we will destroy San Fran, our defense is way to fast for that weak arm of his now that's a game Taylor could go nut's on the defensive side of the ball, I don't think that line will hold but if it does there's money to be made on the Skin's this week.
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Old 12-14-2004, 07:18 PM   #8
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how much were we supposed to the Eagles by
supposed to LOSE by sorry
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Old 12-14-2004, 07:41 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by illdefined
supposed to LOSE by sorry
The Line on that game was Redskins +9.

I dont care, being 3.5 point favorites? Thats free money. Against any other team in the league, I'd consider if fishy, but the NINERS??? Common, I would think that line would be 6/7
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Old 12-14-2004, 07:53 PM   #10
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A good day to bet on the skins!
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Old 12-14-2004, 08:15 PM   #11
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yeah i don't think we've earned a huge spread over them. i'd say about 6/7 counting their "home field." but yeah i still agree we'll up 'em by 14-17.

place all your betts!

hah............................................... .... pathetic...
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Old 12-14-2004, 11:04 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gmanc711
The Line on that game was Redskins +9.

I dont care, being 3.5 point favorites? Thats free money. Against any other team in the league, I'd consider if fishy, but the NINERS??? Common, I would think that line would be 6/7
+8.5 was the game time line.
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Old 12-15-2004, 11:09 AM   #13
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BrudLee is right. That "three point swing" for the home team is not etched in stone and in fact it owes most of its "popularity" to the late but not overly lamented Jimmy the Greek Snyder. Talk about a poser... but that's a different story.

I assure you that the oddsmakers know that the public knows that every team has a different home field advantage. Just think about it for a minute. You are playing at SF against this sorry-assed team and their home field is worth 3 points. Or you could be playing the Pats in New England in late December when it is 5 below zero and you are a dome team - and that home field is worth the same e points?

Remember, the oddsmakers want to adjust the line to what YOU believe the home field advantage may be because they want the same money bet on either side of the ledger.

So, the betting public in the US had the Cardinals 7 points better than the 49ers and now they have the Redskins only 3.5 better. If the players in the Skins' locker room do not take that as an insult, they shouldn't be able to look the bank teller in the eye when they cash this game check!

That is what the football fans of America think of this team. That is outrageous!
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Old 12-15-2004, 11:40 AM   #14
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A 'W' is all I care about and all the team should really care about too.

If a point spread gives the team a little extra motivation that's great, but how much attention do they really pay to the spreads? I'm sure a few players might watch that kind of thing, but as a whole does the team even think about things like that come Sunday, or Saturday in this case.
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Old 12-15-2004, 11:40 AM   #15
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The 49ers dont even get fans to come to their games. Werent they complaining about that like a week ago? I'm putting seroius considerations on betting this game, and I'm not a big gambler.
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