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Do you realize we STILL have a decent shot at the playoffs???

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Old 12-20-2004, 01:57 PM   #1
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Do you realize we STILL have a decent shot at the playoffs???

We are ONE game out of the final slot. For us to get it, certain things must occur - most importantly: WE MUST WIN BOTH FINAL GAMES. Other than that:
- Carolina, New Orleans and the NY Giants must each lose at least one of their remaining games
- AND EITHER St. Louis must lose one of its final games OR Seattle must lose both its final games.

IF ALL THAT HAPPENS, WE GET THE LAST WILDCARD SPOT AS THE 7-9 TEAM WITH THE BEST CONFERENCE RECORD.

Currently:
Seattle is 7-7
St. Louis, Carolina, and New Orleans are 6-8
Washington, T. Bay, Dallas, New York, Arizona, Detroit and Chicago are all 5-9.

THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE:
- Philly, Atlanta, G. Bay are definitely in.
- As Minnesota is currently 8-6, we cannot beat them out of a Wildcard spot as the best we can do is 7-9 and the worst they can do is 8-8.
- Either Seattle or St. Louis will win the West - So one of them is definetely in and the other must compete for the remaining WC spot.

HOWEVER: IF we win out and couple of key teams lose a game or two - We get the last spot over any teams tied at 7-9 (most likely, Carolina, New Orleans, Seattle, St. Louis and T. Bay).


At 7-9, we would have the tie-breakers against all the current 6-8 teams (if they finish 7-9) and all the 5-9 teams EXCEPT New York.

If we tie at 7-9 with the Giants, I think we have the advantage but am not sure. When two teams in a division are tied, the 2nd place team gets to battle the remaining teams for a WC spot. So, even though we have a better conference record then the Giants, we may not have a better record against common opponents (We lost ALL our out of conference games which we had in common with NYG, and I don't know how the NYG's did against the AFC Central or the NFC central but we are currently 2-7 against those teams with Minnesota to go). In that case, the Giants are the NFC East 2nd place team and we are bumped.

Here is the breakdown of games remaining with my predictions (the numbers in the paranthesis are conference records):

Seattle Current:7-7 (6-4) Prediction: 8-8 (6-6)
12.26 Arizona W 8-7 (6-4)
01.02 Atlanta L 8-8 (6-5)

Carolina Current: 6-8 (5-5) Prediction: 7-9 (6-6)
12.26 At T.Bay L 6-9 (5-6)
01.02 N. Orlns W 7-9 (6-6)

St.Louis Current: 6-8 (6-5) Prediction: 6-10 (6-6)
12.27 Phil L 6-9 (6-6)
01.02 NY Jets L 6-10

N.Orlns Current: 6-8 (4-6) Prediction: 6-10 (4-8)
12.26 Atlanta L 6-9 (4-7)
01.02 At Caro. L 6-10 (4-8)

SKINS! Current: 5-9 (5-5) Prediction: 7-9 (7-5):
12.26 At Dallas W 6-9 (6-5)
01.02 Minn. W 7-9 (7-5)

Dallas Current: 5-9 (4-6) Prediction: 6-10 (6-6)
12.26 Wash. L 5-10 (4-7)
01.02 AT NYG W 6-10 (5-7)

T. Bay Current: 5-9 (4-6) Prediction: 7-9 (6-6)
12.26 Carolina W 6-9 (5-6)
01.02 At Ariz. W 7-9 (6-6)

Chicago Current: 5-9 (4-6) Prediction: 5-11 (4-8)
12.26 At Det. L 5-10 (4-7)
01.02 G. Bay L 5-11 (4-8)

Arizona Current: 5-9 (4-6) Prediction: 5-11 (4-8)
12.26 At Sea. L 5-10 (4-7)
01.02 T. Bay L 5-11 (4-8)

New York Current: 5-9 (4-7) Prediction: 6-10 (4-8):
12.26 At Cinci. L 5-10 (4-7)
01.02 Dallas L 6-10 (5-7)

Detroit Current: 5-9 (4-7) Prediction: 6-10 (6-6)
12.26 Chicago W 6-9 (6-6)
01.02 Tenn. L 6-10

Under this scenario, we beat out Carolina and T. Bay as the best of the 7-9 teams for the last spot.

With their remaining games, I am pretty confidant that both St. Louis (Philly, Jets) and New Orleans (Atlanta, Carolina) will each lose at least one more game. To me, the question is whether or not Carolina will lose to either T. Bay or the Saints. I am not sure either has the stuff to beat the Panthers. Another problem is that, at the end of the season, you can never tell who may just phone it in or, for playoff teams, if they will play starters and risk injuries.

I know the stars must align just right for us. But hey, Gibbs' teams have always had good late season records and, quite frankly, none of the teams ahead of us are shoo-ins.

Besides - who wants to start talking about draft picks just yet!
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Old 12-20-2004, 02:07 PM   #2
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Quick Fix as to the Giants: If we tie at 7-9 with the Giants, they will get 2nd place in the division b/c of a better division record (3-3 vs. 2-4) and we get bumped from further comparisons. In the division we are currently 1-4 with Dallas to play. The Giants are 2-3 with Dallas to play. Hopefully, Cinci beats the Giants this week and our playoff hopes are in no way tied to a Dallas victory.
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Old 12-20-2004, 02:20 PM   #3
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http://www.thewarpath.net/showthread.php?t=4222 (Ok, I know playoff talk is silly, but...)
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Old 12-20-2004, 02:27 PM   #4
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Sorry Matty, didn't realize the horse had already been shot and thoroughly beaten.
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Old 12-20-2004, 02:48 PM   #5
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don't worry about it, I don't think this horse is dead just yet anyway
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Old 12-20-2004, 04:58 PM   #6
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Guys - Dallas played Philly close and their RB has been playing well. Both of our games are somewhat difficult. I think we can do both of them, but we MUST score TD's in the red zone to walk away with W's.
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Old 12-20-2004, 05:03 PM   #7
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I really think Tampa can take carolina. Griese is playing well, they have a solid defense.. it can happen! I like Carolina, but sorry fellas. That's our spot!
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