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ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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Old 08-05-2011, 11:30 PM   #31
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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Originally Posted by rbanerjee23 View Post
Trent Dilfer actually mentioned on NFL Live not to say that he had a hand in it -- verbatim, "If people know I was involved, they wouldn't respect it"
Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.
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Old 08-05-2011, 11:35 PM   #32
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

Yeah, they'll definitely need to look at game tape so overall it's a more exhaustive process -- I couldn't care less though, you can get a sense of how a player is playing in the game from the stats but if you really want to analyze how well a guy played (i.e. get his TQBR), then a 1-2 day delay is totally understandable.
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Old 08-06-2011, 04:47 PM   #33
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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Originally Posted by Dirtbag59 View Post
Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.
My only problem with the splitting up credit thing has to do with it's in-game purpose. If you're going to drop a players single game TQBR in the middle of a football broadcast, the context for that is going to be nearly impossible to have correct during the broadcast.

The denominator for this stat (EPA) is strong. But an EPA rate stat would be about 1,000 times more simple and more predictive than TQBR. And more than that, it was easily available four years ago on the internet. So if ESPN can't use TQBR as a replacement for passer rating during it's broadcasts, then it has no practical value.

To have value, TQBR must flat replace passer rating during all broadcasts to the point where we, as fans, will look at networks like Fox and CBS and be embarrassed to be fed passer rating during a live broadcast.
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Old 08-06-2011, 04:57 PM   #34
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My only problem with the splitting up credit thing has to do with it's in-game purpose. If you're going to drop a players single game TQBR in the middle of a football broadcast, the context for that is going to be nearly impossible to have correct during the broadcast.

The denominator for this stat (EPA) is strong. But an EPA rate stat would be about 1,000 times more simple and more predictive than TQBR. And more than that, it was easily available four years ago on the internet. So if ESPN can't use TQBR as a replacement for passer rating during it's broadcasts, then it has no practical value.

To have value, TQBR must flat replace passer rating during all broadcasts to the point where we, as fans, will look at networks like Fox and CBS and be embarrassed to be fed passer rating during a live broadcast.
It will replace passer rating in the broadcasts.
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Old 08-06-2011, 05:06 PM   #35
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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It will replace passer rating in the broadcasts.
On a single game basis as well? Do you know if the single game baseline is going to differ in any way from the baseline for a season?
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Old 08-06-2011, 05:14 PM   #36
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

The hidden thing that TQBR inadvertently does is that its also going to give an EPA component for the other players involved in the play on offense (and hopefully someday, defense). Whereas we already have a ton of useful ways to measure quarterback play (and have for nearly a decade), I really think that the film analysis component of TQBR can provide accurate conclusions about the performance of other players on offense from a statistical perspective.
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Old 08-06-2011, 05:51 PM   #37
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On a single game basis as well? Do you know if the single game baseline is going to differ in any way from the baseline for a season?
It's Saturday, your question requires my weekday brain
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Old 08-11-2011, 09:16 PM   #38
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

I'm not watching any of the games right now (still at work), but the gamecasts/box scores on ESPN are not using the new QB stat. Is this regular season only?
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Old 08-12-2011, 10:34 AM   #39
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

I believe this stat is an overall barometer for the value that the QB has for each and every play to his team. It does seem that it (TQBR) lowers the value for the "moving the chains" type passes, the short 5 yard slants called on an audible, where one could be broken for a huge gain. One thing that this new system would have a hard time doing is adjusting stats based on game situations during the current game. How can this system adjust the ratings to involve audibles or in game decisions made by a quarterback that positively affect other players performances. It seems that this rating would give a majority of the "responsibility points" to the guy on the other end of the pass who takes a short one for a big gain. Is there a "watered down" version that they will use during in game broadcasts so that they can give an overall description on the value of the quarterbacks play for that given game? I dont see a very accurate way that the TQBR can be accurately projected during in game broadcasts, as the rating depends heavily on situational statistics, and you possibly wouldnt know if a situation, or the stats during a given situation, were inflated at any point during a game, until late in the game, or afterwards.

Seems like a hard rating to gauge in "real time". My thought is there should be a watered down, less situational adjusted version to use for broadcasts, and then release the "TQBR" for each quarterback that played the previous day on Sportscenter weekly after every football week. Kinda like how everyone waits for each specific sites "Power Rankings", Sportscenter could incorporate this into something that is released on Tuesday that everyone is looking forward to. "SC is releasing the TQBRs today, lets see how so and so REALLY fared this week......" type thing.
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Old 08-14-2011, 09:21 AM   #40
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

I like the TQBR (it confirms many of my personal QB rankings via observation).
Its not perfect but its a clear upgrade and more meaningful stat the current QBR(passer rating).

But, I have a question about sacks.
It seems that sacks are always counted against the QB.
But, if so that seems wrong headed imo.
Sure some sacks are the QBs fault but some sacks are clearly the fault of the pass protection and shouldn't count against the QB.

I think the TQBR should have component stats that create/ help them arrive at the TQBR.

I.E.-

o number of sacks due to QB fault vs. pass protection

o number of 'clutch' drives

o how much of a given QBs stats: yards, TDs etc are meaningful vs. garbage time

etc.
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Old 08-15-2011, 06:16 PM   #41
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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I like the TQBR (it confirms many of my personal QB rankings via observation).
Its not perfect but its a clear upgrade and more meaningful stat the current QBR(passer rating).

But, I have a question about sacks.
It seems that sacks are always counted against the QB.
But, if so that seems wrong headed imo.
Sure some sacks are the QBs fault but some sacks are clearly the fault of the pass protection and shouldn't count against the QB.
Case in point the Bears and Jay Cutler.
They give up a ton of sacks wether Jay Cutler is behind center or not and that's because their OL stinks...on ice.
(They even stink in preseason)
But, it would appear that Jay Cutler's TQBR is negatively effected by the Bears porus OL.
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Old 08-15-2011, 06:20 PM   #42
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

4 statisticians 6 different ratings.
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Old 08-15-2011, 06:22 PM   #43
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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4 statisticians 6 different ratings.
??????
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Old 08-15-2011, 06:25 PM   #44
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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??????
Basically saying the rating is subjective. You and I could evaluate the same player, in the same game, using the same TQR system and come up with 2 different ratings. Where as if we both plug in the same numbers into a QB Rating calculator we would get the same rating.
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Old 08-15-2011, 06:29 PM   #45
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Re: ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

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Basically saying the rating is subjective. You and I could evaluate the same player, in the same game, using the same TQR system and come up with 2 different ratings. Where as if we both plug in the same numbers into a QB Rating calculator we would get the same rating.
Why do you think rating is subjective?

The TQBR must have an objective rubric that would allow any rater to come out with the same or similar at worst outcome, otherwise the TQBR has very little objective value.

The point I was getting at is that the rubric or scale shouldn't be a mystery and specifically I would like to know how they grade sacks.
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