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Around the NFL week 10

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Old 11-14-2011, 02:29 PM   #151
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

I think if you go play action, then you're gambling, because you can slip a guy behind a defense and win the game right there. What the Falcons called wasn't a gamble at all, it was the percentage play.

Let me point out that the aggressor there wasn't Mike Smith, who made the percentage play. The aggressor was Gregg Williams who sent 10 guys in every gap to be in the backfield. Williams guessed right on the call. If he guesses wrong, the Falcons win the game on that play.

So good call by the Falcons, but you need to know your opponent. If you're going to give your opponent a shot to win the game on a 4th and inches stop, you should go down attacking, not just playing the percentages.
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Old 11-14-2011, 02:40 PM   #152
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

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I agree that the play call was lousy and a sneak was a better call.

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.
The AAS probability model suggests that the Falcons were still 18% to win after the turnover on downs.

That's everything that could go wrong for the Saints. A missed FG, a turnover, a tipped pass, holding, dropped snap. The game is not over right there. I think 18% is still a high estimate, just because of how efficient the Saints are at getting points. But that's only fuel for the argument that the clearest path is to go for it, and get it.

The other thing to point out is that in their last drive of regulation, the Saints had the ball at the same spot they got it in overtime in a high leverage situation, and they ended up punting. So like the Belichick decision in 2009, the team isn't dead in the water among failing to get a first down. It's just that winning is unlikely.

I think too often people look at punting as a free 40 yards. I think if we look back at the prior 6 Redskins seasons before this one, the amount of times the Redskins actually moved a team 40+ yards back on a punt was probably close to zero. I'm thinking 80% or more of all punts increase the likelihood that the team that punts loses the game, in one way or another. And I think that Mike Smith is smart for realizing that punting that ball is merely one of a lot of bad options.

It's better than the outcome the Falcons got, but Smith is right to say if they couldn't get a yard, they shouldn't have won the game.
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Old 11-14-2011, 02:46 PM   #153
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

Rex Ryan cursing at the fans. LOL. About 25 seconds into the video. "Belichick is better than you!" "Shut the f*ck up!!"

I love seeing that guy lose football games.

Jets Coach Rex Ryan Curses at Fan - YouTube
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Old 11-14-2011, 03:57 PM   #154
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

Looks like Matt Cassel might be done for the year
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Old 11-14-2011, 03:59 PM   #155
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

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Looks like Matt Cassel might be done for the year
And just like that your boy Stanzi is a heartbeat away from being a starter in this league.
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Old 11-14-2011, 04:27 PM   #156
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

Wow, penalized for a Salute to the Troops during Veterans Day Weekend. How is this excessive celebration?

Catrinel Menghia; Eric Decker penalized for saluting to troops: Hot Clicks - SI.com - Extra Mustard
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Old 11-14-2011, 05:24 PM   #157
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

Just saw a TWEET from John Clayton. Matt Schaub will be out several weeks with a "significant" foot injury.

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ClaytonESPN John Clayton
Matt Schaub has significant foot injury and will be out several weeks.

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Old 11-14-2011, 05:32 PM   #158
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

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Just saw a TWEET from John Clayton. Matt Schaub will be out several weeks with a "significant" foot injury.
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Old 11-14-2011, 06:06 PM   #159
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

Now they're saying Schaub done for the year. Man, just when it looks like Houston finally has it turned around...

Andre Johnson, Mario Williams, now Matt Schaub... that's 3 of their 4 best players.

We complain about the Skins injuries, but that's a huge dagger for the Texans right there. Ouch.
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Old 11-14-2011, 06:08 PM   #160
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

ddddddamnnnn Schaub was my starter in 3 of my fantasy teams.
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Old 11-14-2011, 06:09 PM   #161
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

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Now they're saying Schaub done for the year. Man, just when it looks like Houston finally has it turned around...

Andre Johnson, Mario Williams, now Matt Schaub... that's 3 of their 4 best players.

We complain about the Skins injuries, but that's a huge dagger for the Texans right there. Ouch.
Well Andre Johnson should be returning next week, but yeah they are pretty much screwed. Who's their backup? Looks like Tennessee may end up taking that division.

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ddddddamnnnn Schaub was my starter in 3 of my fantasy teams.
I have Andre Johnson
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Old 11-14-2011, 06:10 PM   #162
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

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Well Andre Johnson should be returning next week, but yeah they are pretty much screwed. Who's their backup? Looks like Tennessee may end up taking that division.
Matt Leinart. Yikes.
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:25 PM   #163
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

I know how to fix my Fantasy Football issue with Matt Schaub going down....Drop Schaub, Add John Skelton!!!!
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:26 PM   #164
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

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I know how to fix my Fantasy Football issue with Matt Schaub going down....Drop Schaub, Add John Skelton!!!!
Lol. I was actually thinking about that. I have Schaub in one league where I'm currently in playoff position. I have Hasselbeck as my backup....
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:34 PM   #165
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Re: Around the NFL week 10

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Lol. I was actually thinking about that. I have Schaub in one league where I'm currently in playoff position. I have Hasselbeck as my backup....
Yeah, I got 3 of my 5 teams with Schaub as my starter. Got Tebow, Flacco, Sanchise as the back ups. All pretty lame, Schaub has been very solid this year.
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