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I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

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Old 11-22-2011, 02:29 PM   #31
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

At this point, I don't mind if they lose. I guess you should not tank but how much would, lets get crazy here and say winning out, help this team?
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Old 11-22-2011, 02:55 PM   #32
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

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Originally Posted by JoeRedskin View Post
The problem is that it is not a 50% success rate v. a 4% success rate. Here are all the QB’s chosen in the first rounds since 2005 (I originally had the first 3 rounds but since the allegation is higher in the first round = higher success and consider it a given that we will be picking a QB in the first round, I only included these QB’s):

All this shows to me, as NC_Skins is saying, is that the draft is a crap shoot. Given the odds, you aren’t significantly improving your chances by tanking.

Do your best, build a culture of hard work and “never say die” attitudes and you give a rookie a chance. Create a culture of losing and you will be doomed to the culture you create.
It is my fault for tossing out a concrete number and not specifying a range. 33% to 45% is still pretty good.
Imo, 11th is still a high pick. Hence, I'd bunch Cutler with the group Leinart is in.

What if we add a few more drafted QBs to look at though...

In 2004
1st Eli
4th Rivers
11th Roethlisberger
22nd Losman

In 2003
1st Carson Palmer
7th Leftwich
19th Boller
22nd Grossman

In 2002
1st Carr
3rd Harrington
32nd Ramsey

In 2001
1st Vick

In 2000
18th Chad Pennington

There are 8 more "high" picks to add to the ten you have mentioned. 4 hits and 4 duds, assuming Vick is considered a dud. This would increase the percentage from 40% to ~44%

There are 5 "lower" picks to add to the seven you have mentioned. All of them not franchise material. Your percentages for lower round guys plummets to 50%, 42%, or 33% depending on whether Tebow and Campbell are considered studs or not.

And yes, if we included 1999, the success percentage for "high" QBs decreases big time. At the same time though, very few late 1st round QBs were taken in the 90s, and those that were taken did very little of consequence.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:00 PM   #33
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

As long as they play hard is all I ask. Because it's not just draft picks. I also want our current free agents and potential free agents from other teams to know that if they come here or stay here we will compete
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:04 PM   #34
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

The QBs that have been selected since '98 draft in the top 10. I left off the past two years because it's too soon to say they are good or bad. I went back to '98 since that basically covers the possible career span of a franchise QB. Out of this list, I would pick 5 guys that are elite QBs that I would want leading my team. (6 if you count Palmer before his injury) That's a 25% rate on picking QBs in the top 10.



1998-
1st Peyton Manning
2nd Ryan Leaf

1999-
1st Tim Couch
2nd Donovan McNabb
3rd Akili Smith

2001 -
1st Vick

2002-

1st David Carr
3rd Joey Harrington

2003-

1st Carson Palmer
7th Byron Leftwich

2004-
1st Eli Manning
4th Phillip Rivers

2005-
1st Alex Smith

2006
3rd Vince Young
10th Matt Leinart

2007-
1st JaMarcus Russell

2008-
3rd Matt Ryan

2009-
1st Matthew Stafford
5th Mark Sanchez
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:28 PM   #35
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

Last year, I thought the Skins had to pick a quarterback in the first round. It didn't happen. I'm not confident that Mike/Kyle Shanahan are good talent evaluators, especially at the quarterback position. They gave up on Jason Campbell without giving him a try. Gave away too many draft picks for Donovan McNabb and then gave up on McNabb little over a half of a season. Now they are flip floppiing between Grossman and Beck. I don't think they have a clue how to evaluate quarterback talent.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:28 PM   #36
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

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Originally Posted by NC_Skins View Post
The QBs that have been selected since '98 draft in the top 10. I left off the past two years because it's too soon to say they are good or bad. I went back to '98 since that basically covers the possible career span of a franchise QB. Out of this list, I would pick 5 guys that are elite QBs that I would want leading my team. (6 if you count Palmer before his injury) That's a 25% rate on picking QBs in the top 10.



1998-
1st Peyton Manning
2nd Ryan Leaf

1999-
1st Tim Couch
2nd Donovan McNabb
3rd Akili Smith

2001 -
1st Vick

2002-

1st David Carr
3rd Joey Harrington

2003-

1st Carson Palmer
7th Byron Leftwich

2004-
1st Eli Manning
4th Phillip Rivers

2005-
1st Alex Smith

2006
3rd Vince Young
10th Matt Leinart

2007-
1st JaMarcus Russell

2008-
3rd Matt Ryan

2009-
1st Matthew Stafford
5th Mark Sanchez
You're mixing the facts with your opinions. The fact is that nine of those players are currently the 1st string QB for their teams. Plus several of them are currently backups and one of the backups, Donovan McNabb, had an outstanding career as a starter. So, that's ten QB's who became NFL starters, which is a success rate of greater than 50%.

Last edited by KI Skins Fan; 11-22-2011 at 03:30 PM.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:28 PM   #37
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

I was hoping we'd beat Dallas, but, I was not upset that we lost. Yes, we need Luck or the next best thing.

I'm not sure the Colts would draft Luck. Of course, they will play the game, and try to get as much value for the pick as they can. It's a big if, but assuming Manning will be ok w/ his health, he's got a good 4-5 years I would think.

Miami will finish w/ more wins than us. Seatle...not sure. The problem is, if St Louis or other teams pick before us, someone could trade up for a qb like Barkley.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:35 PM   #38
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

I don't ever want this team to lose. Draft pick(s) be damned. Losing becomes a mindset and is a cancer against the team's foundations of pride, poise, discipline, respect and honor. You can't respect yourself or your team mates if you are paid to perform and win and don't do everything you can to prepare and execute a winning effort. You certainly pay no honor to those Redskins before you who gave it their all and came out with their heads held high. My respect for this team would be diminished if they played to win a draft pick instead of a game. I guess my priorities are different than most...
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:39 PM   #39
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

Losing doesn't help mentalities and mindsets, but the Skins have already had a losing culture for the last 2 decades (minus a few blips here and there)!

Not saying tank, but to think if we do well the rest of this year we would be able to instill/maintain a winning culture is naive. We have a huge hole to dig out of, and it will take another 2-3 years. At least.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:44 PM   #40
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

It's a sick feeling but I want them to lose also...but I fear that if they do lose out it could prompt Snyder to do something stupid and pull the plug on Shanny/Allen which would be devastating IMO.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:47 PM   #41
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

When is the day or game that the team stands up and says I WILL BE DEFEATED NO MORE; next game, next year, next decade. I admit I'm a dinosaur, but I say draw a line in the sand and toe the line.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:55 PM   #42
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

its all about unchecked aggression dude.
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:06 PM   #43
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

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Originally Posted by Dogtag View Post
I don't ever want this team to lose. Draft pick(s) be damned. Losing becomes a mindset and is a cancer against the team's foundations of pride, poise, discipline, respect and honor. You can't respect yourself or your team mates if you are paid to perform and win and don't do everything you can to prepare and execute a winning effort. You certainly pay no honor to those Redskins before you who gave it their all and came out with their heads held high. My respect for this team would be diminished if they played to win a draft pick instead of a game. I guess my priorities are different than most...
The team is still playing hard and I believe they still care and have pride it what they're doing.

Don't confuse what we want as fans and what the players want. I'm sure the team could care less about what draft pick they end up with.
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:37 PM   #44
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

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The team is still playing hard and I believe they still care and have pride it what they're doing.

Don't confuse what we want as fans and what the players want. I'm sure the team could care less about what draft pick they end up with.
Thanks. I mean no disrespect for anyones opinion on the matter; however, I'm still a passionate warrior in heart if not so much in body anymore. Each loss is like a dagger...
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:47 PM   #45
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Re: I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

I just did ESPN's "Playoff Predictor" thing where you pick winners for all of the remaining games and it spits out the playoff & record outcomes.

I just wanted to point out that I had picked us to beat Seattle and Minnesota and lose all of the rest, finishing 5-11.

THEN what I noticed was by picking the games the way I did, we would end up tied for the 8th worst record in the NFL.... with Seattle.

MEANING... There IS a logical chance that we could finish tied with Seattle if we do beat them this weekend, which would suck, if RGIII or Jones doesn't come out.

Seattle will DEFINITELY pick Barkley (Not only do they need a QB, ummm... Pete Carroll anyone??) if he is there at 8 and we are at 9, meaning we'd have to get into some kind of bidding war to get above them to take him, giving away the picks we desperately need to really rebuild.

This game, honestly, COULD... POSSIBLY... mean a HUGE DEAL to the future of the Redskins QB situation... something to keep in mind, one way or the other.

With all of that being said... It's not like I'm the "Schwam" or anything... I have no clue how the games will actually turn out, I'm just saying, we definitely will be AROUND the same final record as the Seahawks, the team we could be competing with most... in April
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Last edited by Hail to the Redskins; 11-22-2011 at 04:50 PM.
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