Roster transition in the Shanny era

freddyg12 · 01-09-2012, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paintrain

I was trashed here when I said it at the time and still stand behind it, the Joe Gibbs 2.0 years set this franchise back 5-10 years. Vinny was a part of it but he did the franchise no favors long term with his decisions.

I don't agree fully, but I see what you mean. I'd say 5-10 years is way too extreme & you must factor in what happened right after Gibbs left - Zorn hired, Haynesworth signed, etc.

The question to me is; who was actually making the deals? I always got the impression from reports that Vinny was, Gibbs just decided who to go after in the draft, trades or FA. i.e. don't think we can solely blame Gibbs for all of those picks being blown.

Even if Gibbs 2.0 didn't build the team for the future, he gave us 2 playoff teams, thats more than we'd seen since 99 & we haven't been back yet. Those seasons were the most exciting of the decade hands down.

Dirtbag59 · 01-09-2012, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Only in 2008-2009? So who was calling all the shots the rest of the time? He was involved all along.

He was involved but it's kind of foggy as to how much say he had when it came to shaping the roster. 2008 and 2009 there's little doubt as to what his role with the team was. You can also go back to the Spurrier era but to me Snyder was much more involved at that point when it came to shaping the roster.

By the time Vinny was made EVPFO Snyder had started to fade into the background with his only real marks being on helping with the disaster of a coaching search and giving the green light on the funds for the Haynesworth contract.

Mattyk · 01-09-2012, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

He was involved but it's kind of foggy as to how much say he had when it came to shaping the roster. 2008 and 2009 there's little doubt as to what his role with the team was. You can also go back to the Spurrier era but to me Snyder was much more involved at that point when it came to shaping the roster.

By the time Vinny was made EVPFO Snyder had started to fade into the background with his only real marks being on helping with the disaster of a coaching search and giving the green light on the funds for the Haynesworth contract.

I think it's safe to assume VC had a significant role in personnel all along. I don't think Snyder ever had a significant role, he had input yes, but I think it was still mostly VC who was guiding the ship.

The Goat · 01-09-2012, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I think it's safe to assume VC had a significant role in personnel all along. I don't think Snyder ever had a significant role, he had input yes, but I think it was still mostly VC who was guiding the ship.

VC was Danny boy's input

It's impossible to know for sure what those years were like, but my perception is Gibbs was very involved in talent evaluation/acquisition during his 2nd tenure.

Paintrain · 01-09-2012, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddyg12

I don't agree fully, but I see what you mean. I'd say 5-10 years is way too extreme & you must factor in what happened right after Gibbs left - Zorn hired, Haynesworth signed, etc.

The question to me is; who was actually making the deals? I always got the impression from reports that Vinny was, Gibbs just decided who to go after in the draft, trades or FA. i.e. don't think we can solely blame Gibbs for all of those picks being blown.

Even if Gibbs 2.0 didn't build the team for the future, he gave us 2 playoff teams, thats more than we'd seen since 99 & we haven't been back yet. Those seasons were the most exciting of the decade hands down.

I do factor that in, it's part of the 5-10 years and I agree that sadly our two playoff runs have been the most exciting thing we've see in Redskin land in decades. That says so much.

The Gibbs era was filled with awful roster decisions:
Trading a 3rd round pick for Mark Brunell-he was a backup and trading for him precluded us from considering a free agent QB the following offseason. A guy named Drew Brees.
Throwing in a 2nd round pick in the Bailey deal
Not re-signing Fred Smoot (single most detrimental move in Gibbs era) which led to having to draft Carlos Rogers with the #9 overall pick and bypass a guy sitting around the green room waiting for his name to be called. A guy named Aaron Rodgers. Which also led to us...
Giving up 1st and 2nd round picks to move up for Jason Campbell.
Adam Archuleta-no additional comments needed.
Not re-signing Antonio Pierce, went on to win a title with the Giants
Trading a 2nd round pick for TJ Duckett when Portis was injured.

Those are just off the top of my head, with some research I'm sure I can come up with much more. When he left, we had the oldest roster in the NFL and little to replenish the cupboard with.

Having him oversee Vinny's management of the draft picks was like having Whitney Houston administer Lindsey Lohan's drug rehab. He left Zorn an impending roster disaster and Vinny pushed it over the edge. Only his great coaching propelled us to the playoffs in 2007.

GTripp0012 · 01-09-2012, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paintrain

I was trashed here when I said it at the time and still stand behind it, the Joe Gibbs 2.0 years set this franchise back 5-10 years. Vinny was a part of it but he did the franchise no favors long term with his decisions.

Not to make it a debate about the merits of the Joe Gibbs 2.0 hire (I think you could probably make the argument that Snyder hasn't ever made a good coaching hire), but there's no comparison between any two year period of Gibbs 2.0 and the two years we just went though. You can't cherry pick two Gibbs seasons that make the last two years look competent by comparision.

GMScud · 01-09-2012, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paintrain

I do factor that in, it's part of the 5-10 years and I agree that sadly our two playoff runs have been the most exciting thing we've see in Redskin land in decades. That says so much.

The Gibbs era was filled with awful roster decisions:
Trading a 3rd round pick for Mark Brunell-he was a backup and trading for him precluded us from considering a free agent QB the following offseason. A guy named Drew Brees.
Throwing in a 2nd round pick in the Bailey deal
Not re-signing Fred Smoot (single most detrimental move in Gibbs era) which led to having to draft Carlos Rogers with the #9 overall pick and bypass a guy sitting around the green room waiting for his name to be called. A guy named Aaron Rodgers. Which also led to us...
Giving up 1st and 2nd round picks to move up for Jason Campbell.
Adam Archuleta-no additional comments needed.
Not re-signing Antonio Pierce, went on to win a title with the Giants
Trading a 2nd round pick for TJ Duckett when Portis was injured.

Those are just off the top of my head, with some research I'm sure I can come up with much more. When he left, we had the oldest roster in the NFL and little to replenish the cupboard with.

Having him oversee Vinny's management of the draft picks was like having Whitney Houston administer Lindsey Lohan's drug rehab. He left Zorn an impending roster disaster and Vinny pushed it over the edge. Only his great coaching propelled us to the playoffs in 2007.

Gibbs was never a personnel guy, and Vinny Cerrato is no Bobby Beathard.

The Goat · 01-09-2012, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Not to make it a debate about the merits of the Joe Gibbs 2.0 hire (I think you could probably make the argument that Snyder hasn't ever made a good coaching hire), but there's no comparison between any two year period of Gibbs 2.0 and the two years we just went though. You can't cherry pick two Gibbs seasons that make the last two years look competent by comparision.

The (key) word being competent. Every year during the playoffs I realize (again) how far we are from being a serious playoff team. Sure we swept the Giants this year but they weren't playing at near the level we saw yesterday. Problem is...I just don't see us playing at that level anytime soon. We can have the roster/players vs coaching debate go on forever, and it probably will. Regardless, our defense at its best doesn't look anything like the top 5 in the league or the Giants at their best as we saw it yesterday. And offensively...well, I'll just jump off this downward spiral now.

GTripp0012 · 01-09-2012, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Wait, what?!? You're not serious I hope.

2000 draft-8 picks, 2 starters (Arrington, Samuels), 6 remaining players made no NFL impact and are out of the league.
2002 draft-10 picks, 3 role players/backups (Ramsey, Betts, Cartwright), 7 players no NFL impact/out of NFL.
2003 draft-3 picks, 1 starter/role player (Dockery), 2 no impact/out of NFL.
2004 draft-4 picks, 2 starters (Taylor, Cooley) 2 no impact/out of NFL.
2005 draft-6 picks, 2 starters (Campbell, Rogers), 4 no impact/out of NFL.
2006 draft-6 picks, 3 role players/backups (McIntosh, Doughty, Golston), 3 no impact/out of NFL.
2007 draft-6 picks, 1 starter (Landry), 5 no impact/out of NFL.
2008 draft-10 picks, 0 starters, 1 performer (Davis), 3 role players (Thomas, Rinehart, Jackson), 8 no impact/out of NFL.
2009 draft-6 picks, 1 starter (Orakpo), 1 backup (Barnes), 4 no impact/out of NFL.
2010 draft-1 pick (2009 supplemental), out of NFL.

So by my rudimentary math, that's 54 picks, 9 starters (10 if you want to include Davis), 11 backups and 34 players that made no NFL impact and were out of the league within 3 years of being drafted.

I'd love to read how you spin this to 'a pretty good drafter' and 'no problems with his draft work'.

This is Denver's draft record through 2008.

This is Washington's draft record through 2009.

A lot of ink has been spilled on the quality of the 2006 Denver draft, and certainly, it would rank right around the top of any draft the Redskins had in the last decade.

It's also worth pointing out that Denver used to live in a world where Deltha O'Neal (who was DeAngelo Hall before DeAngelo Hall), DJ Williams, and Ashley Lelie were some of the more successful Denver picks. For a six year stretch between 2000-2005, that was absolutely the case.

The two best draft picks (notwithstanding the unfinished careers of talented guys like Clady, Dumerville, and Marshall) of the Denver/Shanahan era (at least post-2000) were Portis and Cutler. The first two Cerrato picks were Samuels/Arrington. There is probably a discussion to be had about the positional value there, but once you get beyond the comparable successes into cases like Sean Taylor (short, sensational career), Darrent Williams (much shorter, no less promising career) and Marshall (short, enigmatic career, had a career year in 2011 elsewhere), the only true thing you know is that the Redskins never stopped giving away draft picks even at the very end.

Paintrain · 01-09-2012, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

This is Denver's draft record through 2008.

This is Washington's draft record through 2009.

A lot of ink has been spilled on the quality of the 2006 Denver draft, and certainly, it would rank right around the top of any draft the Redskins had in the last decade.

It's also worth pointing out that Denver used to live in a world where Deltha O'Neal (who was DeAngelo Hall before DeAngelo Hall), DJ Williams, and Ashley Lelie were some of the more successful Denver picks. For a six year stretch between 2000-2005, that was absolutely the case.

The two best draft picks (notwithstanding the unfinished careers of talented guys like Clady, Dumerville, and Marshall) of the Denver/Shanahan era (at least post-2000) were Portis and Cutler. The first two Cerrato picks were Samuels/Arrington. There is probably a discussion to be had about the positional value there, but once you get beyond the comparable successes into cases like Sean Taylor (short, sensational career), Darrent Williams (much shorter, no less promising career) and Marshall (short, enigmatic career, had a career year in 2011 elsewhere), the only true thing you know is that the Redskins never stopped giving away draft picks even at the very end.

Not sure how this validates Vinny as 'a pretty good drafter'. Can it be said that at this stage Shanahan has a better 2 year draft record in Washington than any consecutive two yrs of Cerrato. That's a low bar but I'm trying to get your gauge of 'pretty good'.

GTripp0012 · 01-09-2012, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Not sure how this validates Vinny as 'a pretty good drafter'. Can it be said that at this stage Shanahan has a better 2 year draft record in Washington than any consecutive two yrs of Cerrato. That's a low bar but I'm trying to get your gauge of 'pretty good'.

I think that's probably not an unfair defense of the Shanahan era, and I suppose it's accuracy depends one who we attribute the Gibbs drafts to. More to the point, I think Shanahan has outdrafted Cerrato in each of their two most recent drafts.

Vinny's draft record can be validated only by his proficiency in the first round where the stakes are highest and comparatively by Shanahan's struggles in the first round. It wasn't coincidental that Cerrato's worst drafts came when the Redskins did not have a first round pick.

Personally, I'm not yet sure what we have in Trent Williams outside of someone who is both talented and young (which would be the top two criteria for a draft pick), although Kerrigan seems like a far better bet.

NC_Skins · 01-09-2012, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

There's a difference between saying that a guy is competent in the draft and saying he's one of the best drafters in the league. In Shanahan's case, only one is true.

If we want to get technical, Vinny Cerrato was a pretty good drafter as well. Couldn't build a team without trading picks for frivolous parts, but I have no real issue with his draft work.

So who's exactly better at drafting in the NFL?

You lost all credibility the moment you said that Vinny was a pretty good drafter as well.

NC_Skins · 01-09-2012, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Wait, what?!? You're not serious I hope.

I'd love to read how you spin this to 'a pretty good drafter' and 'no problems with his draft work'.

You have to forgive Captain Ahab. He's hunting his elusive white whale(shanahan).

Quote:

Originally Posted by SouperMeister

I totally disagee - the only years that Vinny had sole responsibility for the draft was 2008 and 2009. He used plenty of picks in '08, but had numerous busts, including Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. Our cavalier attitude toward draft picks hit its high water mark during Gibbs 2.0, when Joe Gibbs had final say on all football/personnel matters. To review, under Gibbs we traded the following picks that I'm aware of:

[/LIST]That is A LOT of traded picks. I'm probably missing others, but you get my drift - Gibbs deserves a huge amount of blame for tossing away draft picks, and we are still paying for that to this day.

You are right that Gibbs 2.0 is a huge part of why we are so awful today. He didn't give a shit about this team in the long run, and blew it all away for a "win now" that never materialized to actually winning. You are wrong on the fact that Vinny wasn't involved. Gibbs, Vinny AND Dan were all apart of the decision making during Gibbs 2.0.

GTripp0012 · 01-09-2012, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

So who's exactly better at drafting in the NFL?

You lost all credibility the moment you said that Vinny was a pretty good drafter as well.

I don't know if it's your place to comment on anyone's credibility, but the point is well taken.

I simply don't know who is better. Performance in the first round disproportionately affects how I perceive someone as an able drafter. If you draft Ashlie Lelie in the first round, it doesn't necessarily mean you can't draft, but I'm also not going to bow down and kiss your feet when you get a pick right.

I'm not saying you should only grade a draft by it's first round pick, but if you perform consistently well in the first round, I'm going to consider someone an able drafter even if they can't build a team. I mean, if the Redskins end up drafting the offensive rookie of the year in the first round in 2012, it'd be really tough to complain about Shanahan's draft record. And heck, they might win something once!

I think Mike Shanahan does a pretty good job finding offensive skill and interior OL talents in the mid to late rounds. We haven't necessarily seen any of that here beyond the RB position with Helu and Royster, but if we need to get some TEs or centers or guards, I would generally trust Mike Shanahan to find able bodies. Body of work though is less than impressive.

My official opinion is that this is a lot of debate about two guys with a really weak track record since offense has exploded in the last half-decade, but if proving the dominance of the Shanahan era compared to the Cerrato era makes you feel warm and fuzzy at night, I'll be happy to play devils advocate.