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Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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View Poll Results: If you had to choose between the two...
Sign Peyton Manning 43 32.82%
Trade up for RGIII 88 67.18%
Voters: 131. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-16-2012, 04:19 PM   #841
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Old 02-16-2012, 04:20 PM   #842
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Old 02-16-2012, 04:21 PM   #843
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Originally Posted by Son Of Man View Post
Looking at the most recent 20 SuperBowl Champion Quaterbacks:

- 12 of those games were won by a QB drafted in the 1st round within the first 11 picks. (including Steve Young in the Supplemental draft after coming from the USFL)

- 9 of those Super Bowls were won by a QB chosen 1st overall (Incl. Young)

- 15 were won by Quaterbacks who were drafted within the top 33 picks overall (after you account for Favre, Brees and Rodgers)

- 3 were won by Tom Brady (yes we know...drafted 199th overall)

- The other 2 were Kurt Warner and Brad Johnson.

- 3 were won by a QB who was acquired via free agency. (Brees, Dilfer, Brad Johnson)(excluding Warner who was in the Arena league prior to the Rams).


Summary:

60% of the Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted high in the 1st Round.

3 out of 4 were won by QB's drafted in the top 33 picks.

10% were won by FA QB's with an historically great defense.

1 was one by a free agent QB without a great defense.

1 was one by a once in a generation Cinderella Story (Warner)

You have a great chance to win with a late round "developmental QB"....if his name is Tom Brady.

My hope:

We draft our guy high in the 1st round.
Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:22 PM   #844
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Long and corny way to say....get our QB of the future and build around him while we develop him. Don't be afraid to multi-task.
Well you wouldn't be able to surround the young QB with a lot of new talent this season (since you'd be giving up picks), but possibly the next season.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:23 PM   #845
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Originally Posted by Ruhskins View Post
Would this team be able to win more games than this past season's team:

QB: RG3(starter), Clausen (backup)
RB: Helu, Hightower, Royster
FB: Young
TEs: Cooley, Davis, Paulsen
WR 1: (VJax, Bowe, or Colston) WR 2: Hank WR 3: Moss or Gaffney
OT: T. Williams, Free Agent RT
OG: Chester, Grubbs
C: Montgomery
yes
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:23 PM   #846
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Would this team be able to win more games than this past season's team:



QB: RG3(starter), Clausen (backup)

RB: Helu, Hightower, Royster

FB: Young

TEs: Cooley, Davis, Paulsen

WR 1: (VJax, Bowe, or Colston) WR 2: Hank WR 3: Moss or Gaffney

OT: T. Williams, Free Agent RT

OG: Chester, Grubbs

C: Montgomery
Hell yes, and I have been saying that for a while now.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:23 PM   #847
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Apparently you haven't been keeping up with Smoot's reports on how the Redskins feel about RGIII. They like him, but not enough to sell the farm.
And there are sources that point to the Redskins going after Griffin. Granted I would bet on them signing Peyton at this point but it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that they will trade up for RGIII.

Quote:
According to Carol Ross Joynt of the Washingtonian, Redskins president of operations Dennis Greene was overheard telling people at a luncheon that a new quarterback has been chosen “and fans will be elated.” He said the players name won’t be revealed until April’s NFL draft.
Haslett “Insider” Confirms Chat « CBS DC

Quote:
Denny posted numerous tidbits, including the Skins not being interested in free agent QB Matt Flynn, their strong interest in trading up to the second overall pick and more. Haslett has come out and denied the story, which Denny understands.

Denny, a pastor, went on to defend himself from critics who don’t believe his story, admitting he only thought he was only writing to “two or three hundred friends of mine.”
Quote:
They are strongly considering trading up with St. Louis Rams. He said, they have already talked with Jeff Fisher about the possibility. He did not elaborate on the details, other than to say they had talked with Fisher and are serious about getting a good QB. So again, I am eating crow, since I thought the Redskins would trade down for extra picks. They are not trading down, since they do not believe the QB's in the later rounds are talented enough to lead the team. Haslett believes the team is good enough to win, if they just had one of the two talented QB's at top.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:26 PM   #848
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Because your a doctor and I'm a lawyer. I don't wanna fix people, I wanna get them outta jail.
Exactly. By the way that jerk I operated on last week wants to sue me. Said surfing the web on my smart phone during emergency surgery counts as Malpractice.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:28 PM   #849
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Well you wouldn't be able to surround the young QB with a lot of new talent this season (since you'd be giving up picks), but possibly the next season.
...and the season after that...and the season after that....and
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:30 PM   #850
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.
Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:31 PM   #851
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."
And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:33 PM   #852
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"
Perfect segway


How numbers in statistical surveys can be used to deceive and how one can be scammed.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:34 PM   #853
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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I disagree that trading draft picks for other draft picks is somehow costing you value in the long run.

It's a simple numbers game. Would have have more of a chance of winning the lottery if I gave you 100 tickets or if I game you 1?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Son Of Man View Post
I keep hearing the "we can't afford to take risks"...."let's stockpile our picks" arguement.

Nobody's said that. You are using part of what was said and nobody has said lets stockpile our picks.

I said we can't afford to take huge risks NOW. This doesn't mean not to take them at all or sometime in the near future. Huge difference in what I said and what you are saying.


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Whadda know? That was Vinny's theme song too. Good company.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:35 PM   #854
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.
I don't see why that excludes him from the data....even so it only changes the data by 1 Super Bowl out of the last 20.

Look. I am not saying that drafting a QB high is a lock for the Lombardi trophy....it does appear that it can help though.
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:35 PM   #855
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Re: Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

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...and the season after that...and the season after that....and
Not to step on Dirtbag's toes because this is kind of his territory, but you can do it either way. Sure you can give up one draft and try to land the best QB, because eventually, if the player pans out, you will make up for it in the long run.

That's never not true. You can also do what NC_Skins is suggesting, and build up your roster this season...and the season after that...and the season after that, until you find the QB of your future is already on your roster. That happens sometimes.

Most teams prefer to do it your way: get the quarterback, fill in the rest later. The Parcells/Belichick model is really the only one that suggests you can find your quarterback internally if you keep picking intriguing guys that one else believes in, which is why Brady is where he is and Romo is where he is.

Getting RG3 and building around him later isn't a wrong move, but you still have to be VERY comfortable with the player, if the actual return on the investment isn't going to be noticeable for five or six years. If you're comfortable with the player, I say go for it. But then don't try to trade for Jay Cutler three years in when you haven't yet received ROI.
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