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Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Old 03-20-2012, 07:31 PM   #766
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis View Post
There is much more hoping needed at the WR position for us than at the OL starters. We have to hope Moss's age has not caught up with him, that Gaffney can replicate his season....Wille Smith had a longer audition to showcase his stuff and he did quite well; hence, hoping for him is more plausible than hoping for the WR corps to magically transform itself into on that rivals the better ones in the league.
Good points and without turning this into a longer debate then neccesary I think the opposite of what you're saying above is true.
I'm talking specifically about Moss and Hankerson the expectations for the rest of the receiving corps is no different then any other NFL team that is trying to develop young WRs.
As far as the 'hope' theory goes for me there is less hope required players have actually achieved the level of play desired (Gaffney, Moss) vs expecting players that have not yet to reached the expected level of production.
Willie Smith was good for an UDFA back-up, Polumbus also was decent for a back-up, Jammal Brown was well terrible as a starter.
If the season started now we would not have a competent RT on the roster but even without Garcon and Morgan we would have 2 competent WRs in Moss and Gaffney.
And that ulitmately is the difference.
We would be hoping that Brown, Smith and Polumbus improve to a level that we've haven't seen yet(or recently in Jammal Brown's case).

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Football Outsiders...Gaffney, without controlling for variables such as scheme, other receivers taking pressure off of him, play action effectiveness, o-line quality, etc might have indeed performed better than Moss last year, but that does not necessarily prove that he is the better, more valuable player on the field physically....
Also, if we are to use these stats to predict future performance, the real matter is whether past DYAR and DVOA is a good indicator of future DYAR and DVOA values.
I understand your point here but I'm not using FBO to predict anything.
I posted the their stats as a reference.
And of course FBO metric has limitation every stat does but the limits you address apply to Garcon and Morgan just like the apply for Moss and Gaffney.

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Garcon had even worse QBs and a worse supporting cast.
I would say that QB is a push, but lets not forget Garcon was playing with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

Did the signing of Garcon and Morgan improve the WR corps? Yes.
But, again for me I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.
If people expect a Cam Newtonesque season from Griffin people shouldn't overlook the quality of Newton's OL.
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Old 03-20-2012, 09:22 PM   #767
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

I think the notion of a #1 receiver is overrated. Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, or even Jabar Gaffney can each be a main threat in the offense. But the wide out that defenses really need to concentrate to defend against is Leonard Hankerson. Hankerson will be a dangerous receiver in the years to come you just wait and see.
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:31 PM   #768
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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If Banks bulked up a bit, he'd be a formidable RB.
If he bulked up enough to be a "formidable RB", he would not be nearly as fast as he is now.
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:35 PM   #769
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Good points and without turning this into a longer debate then neccesary I think the opposite of what you're saying above is true.
I'm talking specifically about Moss and Hankerson the expectations for the rest of the receiving corps is no different then any other NFL team that is trying to develop young WRs.
As far as the 'hope' theory goes for me there is less hope required players have actually achieved the level of play desired (Gaffney, Moss) vs expecting players that have not yet to reached the expected level of production.
Willie Smith was good for an UDFA back-up, Polumbus also was decent for a back-up, Jammal Brown was well terrible as a starter.
If the season started now we would not have a competent RT on the roster but even without Garcon and Morgan we would have 2 competent WRs in Moss and Gaffney.
And that ulitmately is the difference.
We would be hoping that Brown, Smith and Polumbus improve to a level that we've haven't seen yet(or recently in Jammal Brown's case).
We know what Gaffney and Moss provides, but it isn't much anyway, and age depreciation is not something to simply throw under the rug when talking about WRs. It is not foolish to expect Moss to trend downwards next season statistically; physically, he already has shown signs of aging. Expecting a "second wind" from a WR nearing 33 years of age is a course of action that will lead to disappointment.

Smith had to start, at a more difficult position, and he held his own for four games. Because he was a rookie and he has much to learn, it is not unreasonable to expect him to play at a higher level than he did last year and be better than Brown.

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I understand your point here but I'm not using FBO to predict anything.
I posted the their stats as a reference.
And of course FBO metric has limitation every stat does but the limits you address apply to Garcon and Morgan just like the apply for Moss and Gaffney.
I would like a little clarification as to what specific points are you trying to establish with the use of the stat of DYAR and DVOA. As in what is this stat supposed to tell me specifically.

And I don't believe I'm guilty of selectively applying the stat. I believe there is no conclusive way to use DYAR as a solid estimator for the how good a reciever is. Morgan cannot be deemed as vastly superior to Garcon and Moss, if one ignores the small sample size of Mrogan's. Garcon and Moss might or might not be similar as the stats imply. Or as an example from last year, DeSean Jackson and Jabar Gaffney had the same DYAR, but the near-unanimous majority would rate DJax as the better receiver.

And the DYAR can vary considerably even for the same receiver over time, like Garcon had a positive DYAR the year before and an even higher DYAR two years ago.

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I would say that QB is a push, but lets not forget Garcon was playing with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

Did the signing of Garcon and Morgan improve the WR corps? Yes.
But, again for me I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.
If people expect a Cam Newtonesque season from Griffin people shouldn't overlook the quality of Newton's OL.
So now we're back to talking physical impact after leaving the lovely ivory tower of blind statisical inferences? I'd like a RT too, but we are not in a position to sit back and relax at the state of our WR corps either, especially two years from now, when Gaffney cross that threshold into the realm of unproductiveness(33 years of age) and we only have Leonard Hankerson's game against Miami to say it's not a problem.
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:41 PM   #770
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

Honestly my expectations for everyone outside of Hankerson and Davis are pretty tempered. I'd personally would be somewhat surprised if Garcon broke a 1,000 yards and very surprised if Morgan broke 600 yards.
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:45 PM   #771
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

Hankerson 1,150 yards 7 TDs
Garcon 800 yards 5 TDs
Morgan 600 yards 3 TDs
Davis 700 yards 5 TDs
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:49 PM   #772
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Hankerson 1,150 yards 7 TDs
Garcon 800 yards 5 TDs
Morgan 600 yards 3 TDs
Davis 700 yards 5 TDs
moss? gaffney? cooley? other WRs

that'd be a 4k passing season for RGiii... i don't see it.
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:51 PM   #773
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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moss? gaffney? cooley? other WRs

that'd be a 4k passing season for RGiii... i don't see it.
Exactly. He's going to at least throw for 5k.
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:53 PM   #774
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

Not the thread for it... But you know who no one's mentioned... Jarvis Jenkins. Remember how excited everyone was for that kid before he got injured? What do you think happens to him this year?
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:55 PM   #775
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Not the thread for it... But you know who no one's mentioned... Jarvis Jenkins. Remember how excited everyone was for that kid before he got injured? What do you think happens to him this year?
Has a few dynamite games at the start, disappears midseason, then picks it up a little near the end.
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:55 PM   #776
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Not the thread for it... But you know who no one's mentioned... Jarvis Jenkins. Remember how excited everyone was for that kid before he got injured? What do you think happens to him this year?
Love that kid...Can't wait for him to get back on the field. Kind of like having an extra first rounder......
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Old 03-20-2012, 10:59 PM   #777
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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moss? gaffney? cooley? other WRs



that'd be a 4k passing season for RGiii... i don't see it.


Gaffney: Another team Cooley: 500 or so, I'm being too nice on Hankerson, I just think he is going to be that guy but non homerism:

Hankerson 900 yards 7 TDs
Davis 800 4 TDs
Garcon 700 yards 5 TDs
Cooley 450 yards 3 TDs
Morgan 400 2 TDs

everyone else: 450 yards 2 TDs

We did throw for nearly 4k with the garbage of QBs this year.
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:00 PM   #778
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

Jarvis will be good.
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:03 PM   #779
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689 View Post
Hankerson 1,150 yards 7 TDs
Garcon 800 yards 5 TDs
Morgan 600 yards 3 TDs
Davis 700 yards 5 TDs
Hankerson going over 1000 yards is...not likely. Dude always takes his time before you go "WOW!" and his recovery from his injury had a late start because they delayed the surgery, hoping that they wouldn't have to perform the surgery. Maybe next year. Garçon has a better shot at 1000 yards if he indeed takes over for Moss.
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:07 PM   #780
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689 View Post
Gaffney: Another team Cooley: 500 or so, I'm being too nice on Hankerson, I just think he is going to be that guy but non homerism:

Hankerson 900 yards 7 TDs
Davis 800 4 TDs
Garcon 700 yards 5 TDs
Cooley 450 yards 3 TDs
Morgan 400 2 TDs

everyone else: 450 yards 2 TDs

We did throw for nearly 4k with the garbage of QBs this year.

switch garcon and hank
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