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Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Old 03-20-2012, 11:31 PM   #781
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

Quote:
Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis View Post
We know what Gaffney and Moss provides, but it isn't much anyway...Expecting a "second wind" from a WR nearing 33 years of age is a course of action that will lead to disappointment......it is not unreasonable to expect him to play at a higher level than he did last year and be better than Brown.
I feel like we're going in circles now where you devalue Moss and Gaffney's actual production while talking up heretofore unseen production from a UDFA rooke RT and a drastically underperforming and injured RT.
My point is simple net-net Gaffney and Moss are better WRs then Willie Smith and Jammal Brown are RTs.
I don't see how anyone can say they know what Gaffney and Moss provide and say its not much when compared against the level of play at the RT position.

2011
Jabar Gaffney 68 catches 947 yards 5 tds
Pierre Garcon 70 catches 947 yards 6 tds
Santana Moss 48 catches 548 yards 4 tds (missed 4 games with a broken hand)
Moss's 2010 season (then one where he didn't break his hand like this year) 93 catches(top 10), 1,115 yards(top 10) 6 tds


Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCP
I would like a little clarification as to what specific points are you trying to establish with the use of the stat of DYAR and DVOA. As in what is this stat supposed to tell me specifically.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 30gut View Post
I understand your point here but I'm not using FBO to predict anything.
I posted the their stats as a reference.
And of course FBO metric has limitation every stat does but the limits you address apply to Garcon and Morgan just like the apply for Moss and Gaffney
The stats are for reference.
For example when you say that Moss/Gaffney don't provide much you can look refer to the stats and see there actual production numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SCP
I believe there is no conclusive way to use DYAR as a solid estimator for the how good a reciever is
Me too.
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCP
...So now we're back to talking physical impact after leaving the lovely ivory tower of blind statisical inferences?
Actually the only one making blind statistical inferences is you.
I posted the stats you made assumptions and inferences based on the stats.

Quote:
Originally Posted by my actual post
Football Outsiders ranks our passing offense:22th
Jabbar Gaffney ranks 33rd in DYAR and 48th in DVOA which is actually ahead of newly signed P.Garcon 81st and 78th respectively.
Interestingly enough the injured S.Moss DYAR/DVOA 80th DYAR/79th DVOA, rival Garcon.
Quote:
I'd like a RT too, but we are not in a position to sit back and relax at the state of our WR corps either, especially two years from now, when Gaffney cross that threshold into the realm of unproductiveness(33 years of age) and we only have Leonard Hankerson's game against Miami to say it's not a problem.
Who said anything about sitting back and relaxing about our WR corps? I surely did not:
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Originally Posted by 30gut View Post
I would have been just as happy with Early Doucet or Harry Douglas and saved some of that 21 mil/42mil/5
So again, simply put I think addressing the RT position this offseason with a proven quality starter provides greater benefit to our rookie QB then adding a couple of 2nd tier WRs with upside.
Or as i've stated previously:
Quote:
Originally Posted by 30gut View Post
Did the signing of Garcon and Morgan improve the WR corps? Yes.
But, again for me I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.
If people expect a Cam Newtonesque season from Griffin people shouldn't overlook the quality of Newton's OL.
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Last edited by 30gut; 03-20-2012 at 11:40 PM.
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:35 PM   #782
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Originally Posted by skinsfaninok View Post
switch garcon and hank
I'll keep it this way for now.
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:43 PM   #783
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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I feel like...
...stated previously:
how long did that take?
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Old 03-20-2012, 11:58 PM   #784
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

I'll play too:

Garcon 1,000
Davis 800
Moss 700
Morgan 600
Gaffney 500
Hankerson 200
Helu 400
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:04 AM   #785
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Originally Posted by 30gut View Post
I'll play too:

Garcon 1,000
Davis 800
Moss 700
Morgan 600
Gaffney 500
Hankerson 200
Helu 400
Ouch. Interesting you add Moss though since I think almost everyone has written him off as a goner.
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:06 AM   #786
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

That's 4k plus and ouch on Hank, I think Moss's age is what hurts him.
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:07 AM   #787
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Ouch. Interesting you add Moss though since I think almost everyone has written him off as a goner.
Well that's w royal but now I see moss staying
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:08 AM   #788
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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That's 4k plus and ouch on Hank, I think Moss's age is what hurts him.
Gaffney's around the same age though. I think he's only a year younger.
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:14 AM   #789
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

yeah he is and I have both of them gone.
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:15 AM   #790
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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yeah he is and I have both of them gone.
lol well that's fair. I'll never agree with Gaffney staying and Moss going. If anything they both need the boot.

Haha. I had it backwards.
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:33 AM   #791
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Ouch. Interesting you add Moss though since I think almost everyone has written him off as a goner.
For the life of me I don't understand why everyone has written Moss off.
Dude played through a broken hand this year and is only one year removed from a top 10 season in catches and yards.
And Moss knows this offense and plays a lot in the slot.
I'll bet Moss will become Griffin safety blanket.

I think Hankerson is a talented receiver but he's a 2nd year receiver coming off a major injury, he's still adjusting to the league and to the offense.
Garcon, Morgan, Moss, Davis, Gaffney are all pro's that either know the scheme or have already earned there stripes as NFL WRs.
Hankerson is gonna have an uphill battle for reps and playing time.
There's gonna be stiff competition in the WRs corps at training camp.
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:35 AM   #792
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

I would rather have a bunch of 800 yard receivers anyway then one 1,000 yard receiver, unless of course you gave me a Fitzgerald, Johnson, or well Johnson. Almost always better in theory when the opposing defense has to spread out and cover everyone rather then keying in on one guy. A lot like the setup the Packers have going right now.

Also in regards to developing QB's sometimes have a true number 1 can stunt a guys development (a la Culpepper) or allow him to break out (a la Schuab and for now Stafford).
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Old 03-21-2012, 01:47 AM   #793
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Originally Posted by 30gut View Post
I feel like we're going in circles now where you devalue Moss and Gaffney's actual production while talking up heretofore unseen production from a UDFA rooke RT and a drastically underperforming and injured RT.
My point is simple net-net Gaffney and Moss are better WRs then Willie Smith and Jammal Brown are RTs.
I don't see how anyone can say they know what Gaffney and Moss provide and say its not much when compared against the level of play at the RT position.

2011
Jabar Gaffney 68 catches 947 yards 5 tds
Pierre Garcon 70 catches 947 yards 6 tds
Santana Moss 48 catches 548 yards 4 tds (missed 4 games with a broken hand)
Moss's 2010 season (then one where he didn't break his hand like this year) 93 catches(top 10), 1,115 yards(top 10) 6 tds
We're on different pages. It is not that the numbers representing output are irrelevant, but rather whether such statistical outputs can be maintained given state of the player's inputs of production. Output is either performance on the field or on the statsheet. Inputs are things like scheme, speed, agility, hands, playbook knowledge, physical wear and tear.

I am more concerned with making projections about future production than about who was better in 2011-2012. So Moss and Gaffney produced those numbers. Can they maintain or surpass them next year, two years from now, etc? Similarly, will Smith and Brown be better, the same, or worse in 2012? Brown, Moss, and Gaffney are at the stage of their career where production trends downwards. This is correlated with the inputs becoming less productive. Whereas Smith is either going to do nothing and bust out of the league or he will improve his game because his inputs become "more productive".
Did Moss and Gaffney produce better than Brown and Smith in 2011-2012? Sure.
Can Moss and Gaffney keep up their level of play? Maybe. If not, production will trend downwards.
Can Brown get better? He'll either stay the same or get worse.
Can Smith improve substantially(aka get closer to his ceiling)? Yes, he can. He might stay the same or get worse...but he has to really slack off considering he held his own against fierce pass rushers.

Separate from the matter of maintaining statiscal production levels are on-field impacts that are not tangible on the statsheet, such as drawing double coverage or being a deep threat; valuable commodities for opening up an offense. These are things not captured on the statsheet.


Just as an aside, since you used Moss's 2010 stats, I will throw out there that Armstrong's DYAR that year was 133 compared to Moss' 117 and his DVOA was 7.4% compared to Moss's -2.1%. Food for thought.


Quote:
The stats are for reference.
For example when you say that Moss/Gaffney don't provide much you can look refer to the stats and see there actual production numbers.
I know its purpose is for reference...and acquiring perspective. Stating its purpose is not a defining and then breaking down the stat's shortcomings.

I want to know what the stat means and what are its shortcomings. Such as if I were to explain what is Gross Domestic Product, I would have to explain what it measures and its shortcomings.


Quote:
Actually the only one making blind statistical inferences is you.
I posted the stats you made assumptions and inferences based on the stats.
Um no, I made no inferences of any sort. In fact, my wall of text was precisely intended to show that no conclusive statements could be made from just telling me some rankings and showing me "advanced stats" without explanation.

You provided absolutely no explanation of what DYAR and DVOA mean or their shortcomings, but yet I'm supposed accept my initial point is countered:
1. based one year's worth of data(small sample)
2. from data loaded with confounding variables
3. by using stats that measure output, not inputs

And of course, rankings can hide things...like the actual values of the DYAR and DVOA.


Quote:
So again, simply put I think addressing the RT position this offseason with a proven quality starter provides greater benefit to our rookie QB then adding a couple of 2nd tier WRs with upside.
Or as i've stated previously:
Given certain assumptions, this viewpoint is plausible. I do not believe those assumptions are well-founded enough. These assumptions include the inability for Willie Smith's inputs of production to become more "efficient"(i.e working on his technique, improving his strength, etc), that Moss and Gaffney's inputs of production are not going to deterioriate, and that our newcomers cannot have a spike in their output.

Separately, the use of the fallacious line of thought that the same output value is due to viritually identical inputs is commonplace in your posts. There are easy counterexamples to this faulty reasoning. For example, two countries produce 100 units of clothes. One country used 100 units of labor and no units of capital to produce that many clothes. The other country used 1 unit of capital and 20 units of labor to produce that many clothes.
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Old 03-21-2012, 02:05 AM   #794
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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For the life of me I don't understand why everyone has written Moss off.

Dude played through a broken hand this year and is only one year removed from a top 10 season in catches and yards.

And Moss knows this offense and plays a lot in the slot.

I'll bet Moss will become Griffin safety blanket.



I think Hankerson is a talented receiver but he's a 2nd year receiver coming off a major injury, he's still adjusting to the league and to the offense.

Garcon, Morgan, Moss, Davis, Gaffney are all pro's that either know the scheme or have already earned there stripes as NFL WRs.

Hankerson is gonna have an uphill battle for reps and playing time.

There's gonna be stiff competition in the WRs corps at training camp.


Not writing him off just with the youth coming in (Garcon, Morgan) and Hank returning from injury there is no need for both Gaffney and Moss. I'd keep Moss over Gaffney but at this point maybe it's time to move on from Moss.
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Old 03-21-2012, 02:22 AM   #795
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Re: Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

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Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689 View Post
Not writing him off just with the youth coming in (Garcon, Morgan) and Hank returning from injury there is no need for both Gaffney and Moss. I'd keep Moss over Gaffney but at this point maybe it's time to move on from Moss.
I think Moss is being seriously undervalued here.
If finding WRs to match Moss 2010 production every team would simply plug in a WR and churn out a 90 catch 1,000 yard WR.
Moss was near 50 catches and 500 yards despite playing though a broken hand that sidelined him for 4 games, and the passing offense suffered without him.
At the end of the day he's a productive veteran receiver that knows the offense and he's cheap.
Knowing the offense is going to be at premium come training camp with a rookie QB.
Gaffney also fits the bill for cheap, knows the system and was productive.
Players like Moss and Gaffney have value in any passing offense.
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