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Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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Old 05-10-2014, 09:17 PM   #1
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Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally - Vox

I thought this was a very good article about the draft and how trading picks usually ends up being a very bad thing. It's also why I was against trading so much for RGIII a couple years ago.


I found this quote by Eric DeCosta to be the key to it all.


Quote:
We look at the draft as, in some respects, a luck-driven process. The more picks you have, the more chances you have to get a good player. When we look at teams that draft well, it’s not necessarily that they’re drafting better than anybody else. It seems to be that they have more picks. There’s definitely a correlation between the amount of picks and drafting good players.

You want to know the difference between good teams and bad ones? Bad ones trade their picks away for gambles, while the smart ones know that it's a numbers game.
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Old 05-10-2014, 09:23 PM   #2
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

The simplified approach always seems to be the most effective in the draft. It's not that drafting requires zero skill, because then first rounders wouldn't be any more productive than other rounds. It does require some skill. But given how typically bad are NFL teams are with drafting, it makes no sense to be overconfident about your own drafting abilities.

If you can tell the difference between a good player and a bad player in the draft, you're ahead of the curve. Don't get too concerned with upside, character, positional need, or whatever. Just take the best player. It's pretty easy.
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Old 05-10-2014, 10:23 PM   #3
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

The draft is always interesting because there seems to be a lot of 'reach' picks that boils down to weather the front office knows better then everyone else or making you wonder if they're being too cute for their own good.

In regards to the RG3 trade I still say it was more than worth it. Actually I'm starting to think that it might have been a steal for us.

Now picture this. In an alternate universe the Rams get buyers remorse after which they call the Redskins and say we will give you the following

Redskins would recieve:
Greg Robinson - OT
Janoris Jenkins - CB
Michael Brockers - DT
Alec Ogletree - MLB/ILB
Steadman Bailey - WR


Rams would receive:
RG3 -QB

I imagine most of us would say hell no.

Granted its not an apples to apples comparison but also keep in mind that the 2013 QB class was pretty underwhelming talent wise and this year we might have found ourselves begging to draft Johnny Leaf I mean Manziel.

Right now had we not taken RG3 we likely would have Cousins as our QB which wouldn't have been horrible but I think a lot of us are a lot more comfortable with him as a backup. Sure you could say maybe they would have taken Wilson instead but I think its well known at this point after Luck and RG3 that Shanahan liked Cousins the most.
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Old 05-10-2014, 10:49 PM   #4
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirtbag59 View Post
The draft is always interesting because there seems to be a lot of 'reach' picks that boils down to weather the front office knows better then everyone else or making you wonder if they're being too cute for their own good.

In regards to the RG3 trade I still say it was more than worth it. Actually I'm starting to think that it might have been a steal for us.

Now picture this. In an alternate universe the Rams get buyers remorse after which they call the Redskins and say we will give you the following

Redskins would recieve:
Greg Robinson - OT
Janoris Jenkins - CB
Michael Brockers - DT
Alec Ogletree - MLB/ILB
Steadman Bailey - WR


Rams would receive:
RG3 -QB

I imagine most of us would say hell no.

Granted its not an apples to apples comparison but also keep in mind that the 2013 QB class was pretty underwhelming talent wise and this year we might have found ourselves begging to draft Johnny Leaf I mean Manziel.

Right now had we not taken RG3 we likely would have Cousins as our QB which wouldn't have been horrible but I think a lot of us are a lot more comfortable with him as a backup. Sure you could say maybe they would have taken Wilson instead but I think its well known at this point after Luck and RG3 that Shanahan liked Cousins the most.
To me the calculus is even simpler than that. If Sam Bradford isn't a franchise QB, and I am starting to think he definitely isn't, then the Rams lost the trade. They could have had RG3 for themselves.

Since that trade, playoff appearances: Redskins 1, Rams 0
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Old 05-10-2014, 11:43 PM   #5
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I don't see how any Skins fans who lived through the great lost decade could see the RG3 trade as anything but a win for us especially when compared with the players the Rams used their picks on. That isn't a knock on any player they took, or groups of players, but moreso a reflection that the Skins had all those players in some way shape or form. We had Chris Samuels, Champ,even Lavar and on and on. But in this league, at this time, a qb is not the same as all of those positions combined, it's the glue that holds the rest together. Or the frosting that ties the layers of the cake together.
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Old 05-11-2014, 12:00 AM   #6
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
To me the calculus is even simpler than that. If Sam Bradford isn't a franchise QB, and I am starting to think he definitely isn't, then the Rams lost the trade. They could have had RG3 for themselves.
Who says RGIII is a franchise QB? Beyond one year in a gimmicky offense, what has he shown you that leads you to believe he's a franchise QB? It's a bit premature to be calling him one right now. Let's give it a couple more years.




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Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule View Post
I don't see how any Skins fans who lived through the great lost decade could see the RG3 trade as anything but a win for us especially when compared with the players the Rams used their picks on. That isn't a knock on any player they took, or groups of players, but moreso a reflection that the Skins had all those players in some way shape or form. We had Chris Samuels, Champ,even Lavar and on and on. But in this league, at this time, a qb is not the same as all of those positions combined, it's the glue that holds the rest together. Or the frosting that ties the layers of the cake together.

This mindset is exactly why we'll continue to be a bad team and why GMs will continue being driven by their egos instead of using intelligence. Listen, one of the top GMs in the NFL is telling you that it's somewhat based off of luck, and that the more picks you have, the higher chance you have at succeeding.

I hear time and time again from Skins fans..."why can't we be like the Ravens, Patriots or Steelers?" When is the last time you've seen any of those teams give up a ton of picks for one player in the draft? If anything, you see these teams move down in the draft to collect more. It's not just about having better scouts, it's about having more chances. I'm not saying that scouting doesn't play a part, but for the majority of it, more picks means higher chance of landing studs. Which would you rather have? One lottery ticket or ten? That one may be a dude as well as the ten lottery picks, but it's about giving you the best chance. It's a numbers game.

Also, to counter the point in bold. The past two super bowl winners were won with teams with so-so QBs. Russell Wilson and Joe Flaaco are no world beaters to say the least.
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Old 05-11-2014, 06:23 AM   #7
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

So he showed a pic of Eli and one of Rivers and said it wasn't worth it or the Chargers made out on the deal ,how? Rivers while better season stats ,hasn't had a whiff of a super bowl ,while Eli on the other hand has brought the Giants 2 ,intangibles and chemistry ,two things that people still don't think matter .
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Old 05-11-2014, 07:51 AM   #8
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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Originally Posted by Giantone View Post
while Eli on the other hand has brought the Giants 2 ,intangibles and chemistry ,two things that people still don't think matter .
Just like Trent Dilfer brought the Ravens a superbowl, right?
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Old 05-11-2014, 09:49 AM   #9
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirtbag59 View Post
The draft is always interesting because there seems to be a lot of 'reach' picks that boils down to weather the front office knows better then everyone else or making you wonder if they're being too cute for their own good.

In regards to the RG3 trade I still say it was more than worth it. Actually I'm starting to think that it might have been a steal for us.

Now picture this. In an alternate universe the Rams get buyers remorse after which they call the Redskins and say we will give you the following

Redskins would recieve:
Greg Robinson - OT
Janoris Jenkins - CB
Michael Brockers - DT
Alec Ogletree - MLB/ILB
Steadman Bailey - WR


Rams would receive:
RG3 -QB

I imagine most of us would say hell no.

Granted its not an apples to apples comparison but also keep in mind that the 2013 QB class was pretty underwhelming talent wise and this year we might have found ourselves begging to draft Johnny Leaf I mean Manziel.

Right now had we not taken RG3 we likely would have Cousins as our QB which wouldn't have been horrible but I think a lot of us are a lot more comfortable with him as a backup. Sure you could say maybe they would have taken Wilson instead but I think its well known at this point after Luck and RG3 that Shanahan liked Cousins the most.

Love the analysis of draft values in the initial post. And Dirtbag -- this is a great breakdown above, pretty interesting. But your breakdown above for RG3 involves players picked by the RAMS. We may or may not have drafted better players, but they certainly would have been different players - based on our needs. A real way to compare would be to go back and consider BPA for us at those draft picks. We may or may not have traded back like they did, etc.
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Old 05-11-2014, 02:40 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giantone View Post
So he showed a pic of Eli and one of Rivers and said it wasn't worth it or the Chargers made out on the deal ,how? Rivers while better season stats ,hasn't had a whiff of a super bowl ,while Eli on the other hand has brought the Giants 2 ,intangibles and chemistry ,two things that people still don't think matter .

If Rivers played for the Giants all these years he might have three. Eli did not win those superbowls the defense did. Rivers is the better QB , but Eli plays for the better team.
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Old 05-11-2014, 02:56 PM   #11
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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If Rivers played for the Giants all these years he might have three. Eli did not win those superbowls the defense did. Rivers is the better QB , but Eli plays for the better team.

Nope , with the heat that Eli has taken , just from Tiki and Shocky when he first got there Rivers would have been crying for ever .The D played well because Eli stepped up .
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Old 05-11-2014, 02:58 PM   #12
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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Originally Posted by HailGreen28 View Post
Just like Trent Dilfer brought the Ravens a superbowl, right?

Whatever helps you sleep at night .
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Old 05-11-2014, 03:49 PM   #13
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

if rg3 wins a superbowl and the rams don't...

still way too early to judge.
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Old 05-11-2014, 07:41 PM   #14
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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Whatever helps you sleep at night .
Likewise, interception lover.
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Old 05-12-2014, 07:43 AM   #15
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Re: Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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Likewise, interception lover.
I'll take his Super Bowls along with the INT's any day ,others would also .
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