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ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Old 05-29-2018, 03:18 PM   #166
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

^^^^^

In regards to this, I always felt that one of Cousins' biggest issues was connecting in short to intermediate throws. These often happened in 3rd and short situations, which did not help in keeping the opposing offense off the field.
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"If you have to debate which of your 3 QBs is your best, you don't have a QB. Say it with me now... it... doesn't... matter." Schneed
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Old 05-29-2018, 04:52 PM   #167
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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What does turnover worthy numbers mean? Throwing a ball that results in turnover?
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Old 05-29-2018, 05:02 PM   #168
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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What does turnover worthy numbers mean? Throwing a ball that results in turnover?
This is why PFF is a valuable tool. They watch every throw right - and if a QB throws a ball and a DB gets his hands on it but drops it - they deem it a 'turnover worthy' throw.

Likewise, if the QB drops a dime right on his WR but it hits his WR's hands, bounces up in the air, and is picked off by a safety, that's not a turnover worthy throw.

And if the QB throws it, the DB gets his hands on it and actually makes the interception, that of course goes down as a turnover worthy throw.

It's basically trying to cut through the fortunate and unfortunate bounces of the ball to determine whether a QB was at fault on a throw that either could have or did cause a turnover.

When you plot Smith's turnover worthy % against his big time throw %, he bubbles up to the upper quadrant of the graph in rare company - it's only him and Brady with such strong big time throw %s and such low turnover worthy throw %s.

Worth noting of course that this is reflective of a surrounding cast. I don't think Cousins is as bad as his numbers showed in 2017 - the offensive line was decimated. But I also think that if healthy, Smith will play with a supporting cast on offense that is in no way a step down from what he had in KC. Health of the supporting cast will be key. If it's there, then you'll see performance stronger than what Cousins put up in 2016 when the offense was healthy.
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Old 05-29-2018, 07:27 PM   #169
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Valuable stats, thanks!
Then, as you mention in your last post, QB probably is the most dependable position on the field. But we finished 7-9 (and were a couple of plays away of 9-7) while being decimated by injuries.
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Old 05-29-2018, 07:41 PM   #170
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

Pff has definitely done a good job bringing more relevant stats to light. Thanks for sharing.
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Old 05-29-2018, 09:13 PM   #171
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

I'm interested in the disparity between Kirk's rank against the blitz (3rd) and his rank against pressure (20th).

Could he plan and account for a blitz versus have to react to and go off schedule to deal with pressure?

Any theories?
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Old 05-29-2018, 09:28 PM   #172
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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I'm interested in the disparity between Kirk's rank against the blitz (3rd) and his rank against pressure (20th).

Could he plan and account for a blitz versus have to react to and go off schedule to deal with pressure?

Any theories?
Itís important to remember that not every blitz succeeds in generating pressure, and not every QB pressure came from the blitz.

To me, Cousinsís success against the blitz says heís adept at very quickly diagnosing a defense and very quickly getting rid of the ball. He does a good job of deploying hot routes and knows where to go with it if he sees blitz. Basically heís a smart QB.

But the poor stats against pressure mean that once a rusher breaks free of his block and is bearing down on Cousins, his athleticism limits him to pedestrian performance. He canít escape like Wilson or Wentz, he canít shrug big dudes off like Roethlisberger, and he canít make other worldly throws on the run like Rodgers.

Weíve seen that tons of times. To me it points to a QB who will do well during the regular season, but against the better pass rushes that come in the playoffs, the team around him will need to play perfectly to get him over the hump.

And thus the reason he chose Minnesota. He himself knows his limitations.
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Old 05-29-2018, 11:16 PM   #173
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

Great stats, and they reflect what we've seen in KC for years. I'm fine with the decision to trade for Smith, I think he's an upgrade at least this year to Cousins, and honestly the lack of drama will help the team.

Smith's numbers/stats above are better but he is 34yo and on the decline (max 2-4more years) - while KC can still improve. Not to mention the injuries to the entire team last year without any running game -- make comparison of numbers incredibly difficult.

Smith may be slightly better but the comparison is close. In the end - we basically lost 5 years of good QB and a 8-10 years of good to elite CB -- both in their prime. That hurts.

But the eagles seemed to turn things around in 1-2 drafts, we can too..
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Old 05-30-2018, 08:15 AM   #174
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
This is why PFF is a valuable tool. They watch every throw right - and if a QB throws a ball and a DB gets his hands on it but drops it - they deem it a 'turnover worthy' throw.

Likewise, if the QB drops a dime right on his WR but it hits his WR's hands, bounces up in the air, and is picked off by a safety, that's not a turnover worthy throw.

And if the QB throws it, the DB gets his hands on it and actually makes the interception, that of course goes down as a turnover worthy throw.

It's basically trying to cut through the fortunate and unfortunate bounces of the ball to determine whether a QB was at fault on a throw that either could have or did cause a turnover.

When you plot Smith's turnover worthy % against his big time throw %, he bubbles up to the upper quadrant of the graph in rare company - it's only him and Brady with such strong big time throw %s and such low turnover worthy throw %s.

Worth noting of course that this is reflective of a surrounding cast. I don't think Cousins is as bad as his numbers showed in 2017 - the offensive line was decimated. But I also think that if healthy, Smith will play with a supporting cast on offense that is in no way a step down from what he had in KC. Health of the supporting cast will be key. If it's there, then you'll see performance stronger than what Cousins put up in 2016 when the offense was healthy.
Thanks for the explanation
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Old 05-30-2018, 08:17 AM   #175
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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But it still points to AS. He has had different coaches, different surrounding players, different schemes. And still he has led his teams to playoff appearances. That reflects on his leadership, ability as a passer, and intangibles like game awareness and selflessnes.

Obviously only time will tell, but i am real high on AS directing Grudens offense.
If you want to put a number on it, at best a qb can be responsible for 33% of his team's success on gameday, because defense and special teams still have to play adequately to get the W. And while you make a good point about the success he's had, keep in mind he's only played for 2 teams, and 1 of those teams he had the same head coach with (Reid) for 5 seasons. I'm sure he's had turnover at coordinator/lower rank coaches, but there's still something to be said for consistency at HC.

Also we can't brag about his playoff appearances because while he's done a good job of getting the Chiefs there, it's not like they've done anything once they got in.
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Old 05-30-2018, 08:48 AM   #176
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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If you want to put a number on it, at best a qb can be responsible for 33% of his team's success on gameday, because defense and special teams still have to play adequately to get the W. And while you make a good point about the success he's had, keep in mind he's only played for 2 teams, and 1 of those teams he had the same head coach with (Reid) for 5 seasons. I'm sure he's had turnover at coordinator/lower rank coaches, but there's still something to be said for consistency at HC.

Also we can't brag about his playoff appearances because while he's done a good job of getting the Chiefs there, it's not like they've done anything once they got in.
So a qb who checks down on 3rd down, throws redzone interceptions, or has a fumbling tendency can only be 1/3 at fault? That is a bit flawed, a reverse example is a cb who consistently drops picks. The fact that the CB drops an interception and thus doesn't end a drive weighs more on the flow of a game then just 33%.

Likewise a qb who doesnt turnover the ball and put the defense in a bad position, or converts 3rd and medium with a regular consistency thus keeping special teams in good field position is far more valuable then 33%. And that's the change we are hoping to get with AS.
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Old 05-30-2018, 08:51 AM   #177
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
This is why PFF is a valuable tool. They watch every throw right - and if a QB throws a ball and a DB gets his hands on it but drops it - they deem it a 'turnover worthy' throw.

Likewise, if the QB drops a dime right on his WR but it hits his WR's hands, bounces up in the air, and is picked off by a safety, that's not a turnover worthy throw.

And if the QB throws it, the DB gets his hands on it and actually makes the interception, that of course goes down as a turnover worthy throw.

It's basically trying to cut through the fortunate and unfortunate bounces of the ball to determine whether a QB was at fault on a throw that either could have or did cause a turnover.

When you plot Smith's turnover worthy % against his big time throw %, he bubbles up to the upper quadrant of the graph in rare company - it's only him and Brady with such strong big time throw %s and such low turnover worthy throw %s.

Worth noting of course that this is reflective of a surrounding cast. I don't think Cousins is as bad as his numbers showed in 2017 - the offensive line was decimated. But I also think that if healthy, Smith will play with a supporting cast on offense that is in no way a step down from what he had in KC. Health of the supporting cast will be key. If it's there, then you'll see performance stronger than what Cousins put up in 2016 when the offense was healthy.
I'm doing a Russell Wilson project right now. From his college days. Wait til they bring out the new QB Grading system it's pretty sweet.
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Old 05-30-2018, 10:08 AM   #178
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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John Beck?


Oh God. If there is one former quarterback who should never be mentioned by name again it is him. I donít think he ever completed a pass for over 4 yards. Actually I donít think he ever attempted a pass for over four yards. That was probably the most trying time to be a Skins fan.
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Old 05-30-2018, 10:13 AM   #179
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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If we sign DRC or Scandrick we will be fine, both of those guys are quality CB's. They wanted Alex right after the season ended, Doug said it in his presser. Fuller was a good player but Smith is a must have. I still don't understand why a 3rd CB would be more valuable than a top 12 QB?


It isnít more valuable it is just that we forced our own hand, and if we had played our cards better we would not have had to give that up for the quarterback.
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Old 05-30-2018, 10:15 AM   #180
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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It isnít more valuable it is just that we forced our own hand, and if we had played our cards better we would not have had to give that up for the quarterback.
True point but I'm Just Saying I'd rather have AS over KF, we will see who had the better end of the deal in a few years though.
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