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We must draft better...

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Old 12-13-2005, 02:55 PM   #31
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Re: We must draft better...

56fanatic, you're preaching to the choir. I understand how player salaries are renegotiated into signing bonuses. What you're failing to see is that is a good thing, not a problem.

Every time we cut a Coles or Trotter and eat a big sum of dead money, there are a huge number of players we have at cap bargains. This year we're eating $9 million on Coles, but we also have players at these bargains:
Portis $2.4 million
Griffin $1.9 million
Springs $2.4 million
Brunell $2.4 million
Jansen $2.1 million
R Thomas $2.0 million
M Washington $1.7 million

Now you're right, we'll have to eat a big number on one or two of those guys sometime very soon. Brunell is the one that comes to mind. But we'll never reach "cap hell" because we'll have other players on our roster at big time bargains, just like we do now.

If you think it's cap hell to have to eat $9 million in dead money for a Coles deal, then I think you're overreacting. That's something that every team deals with. But if you're talking cap hell where we have to dismantle our team like the Titans did, you're just wrong.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:04 PM   #32
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by #56fanatic
saw it. This is getting a bit out of hand. Skins are creating cap room by negotiating contract or renegotiating contracts, and turning roster bonuses and insentives into signing bonuses. When all this comes to fruition you will all see what I am talking about and everyone else is talking about. I am done with it. Its a never ending argument.
The only reason this is a never ending argument is because you're failing to see the complete picture. Yes, renegotiating delays the cap hit. But you're not seeing how fast the salary cap is growing. You can afford to delay cap hits when the salary cap limit is expected to grow $7-$10 million from 2005 to 2006. It will then grow another $7-8 million from 2006 to 2007. You're not understanding that the salary cap limit changes.

That's why we never run into a cap hell. The delays from renegotiating are carefully budgeted into the expected growth in the salary cap limit. As long as your cap overhang is growing at the same rate or slower than the salary cap limit is growing, then you're in great shape. That's what Snyder has been doing for the last 5 years.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:07 PM   #33
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Re: We must draft better...

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Originally Posted by JoeRedskin
An interesting and informative analysis. Clearly, we haven't hit on all draft choices. But, before claiming that our lower round drafting is abysmal, how does the Skins draft record compare to other teams. Perhaps it is higher than all but a few teams. Maybe not. Just don't know. The draft is a crap shoot. Also, to be truly comparitive of DRAFTING ability, you have to take into account whether the players are still in the league (Smoot).
It's not better then the steelers
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:09 PM   #34
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Re: We must draft better...

Question for you guys?

I know that we dont have our first rounder this year for J. Campbell. And maybe not our 4th or 2nd?

But after ths 2006 draft, will we have all our picks back for the 2007 draft> That way we can start building again...
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:14 PM   #35
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Re: We must draft better...

I just had to come back and see what you people had to say about me and my post regarding the cap. Of course I supply the articles that show how teams run into the problems they do. And of course, the Redskins are above all other 31 teams and have a magical cap that no one else understands and no one else in the league has figured out. I forgot that most of our stuff is done in fantasy land, what am I thinking? You wanted proof of where I get my info, I gave it to you and you say that its not worth anything, that absolutely cracks me up. This is from a CAPOLOGIST, who does this, who knows the cap. How you and everyone else can discredit a capologist is beyond me. Of course Vinney and Dannys minions are going to say what they say. You quoted a redskin article. Are they going to come out and say we are mortgaging our future every year by handling contract this way, NO, HELL NO. they are going to say it, we have a plan, 3 year plan. Well , yeah, all these players they have now are young. and they can rework the deals to create cap room for upcoming years. But what are they going to do when these players are getting old and have to be cut, because that is what they are going to have to do. They are not going to be able to pay these backloaded deals. LaVar is a perfect example, 12 million, now you can rework it to save for the next 3 years, but when that 3 years is up, rework again? you have to pay the contracts eventually, You cannot run from it. Ask 49ers, Cowboys, Titans. You have to pay these off eventually, they dont go away, the debt just doesn't disappear. Like I said, maybe not next year or the year after, but when Portis, Arrington, Washington , Griffin, Taylor, Moss, when all these guys are getting older and it a decision do you pay them the 10 million or cut them? And when you cut them, yeah you may not pay the 10 million all in one year, but you still have to pay it over two year period. Are they going to do that with everyone? Is everyone going to be willing to renegotiate there contract? Dont think that every person here is loyal to this franchise because that is in no way the case. Samuels refused to rework his deal until his contract was up. They decided to pay him the 9 million the last year of his deal, but that was because they had to let players go, rework some deals here and there, which is all fine and dandy if other players agree to do it. This is all on assumption that players are willing to do these things, and Samuels is an example that no everyone is going to do it. Dont worry fellas, when all this happens I will hopefully be out here to say I dont you so. It may be 3 years, 5 years however many years, but it will happen. You cant keep putting off the payment of these contracts forever.


You know, you all questioning what a capologist does, is like questioning Bill Gates on Microsoft. Now you are going to say I am questioning Vinny, Well, tell me somebody that is going to come out and say his business is in 3 years going to have to make major cuts, cut costs and we are going to struggle for the 3 or 4 years, but we'll be back. Nobody, they will say down the end that we have plan, everything is great, we are thriving, ENRON, ring a bell. I am using that as an example of people who run businesses not telling you truth about what is going on. But, I guess Vinny, Danny and the minions always tell the truth, I forgot they are the gods, the greatest management ever assembled, the greatest owner and yes men ever, thats why our best record is 8-8 in 8 years.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:16 PM   #36
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Re: We must draft better...

LOL nevermind.

We'll check back in 3-5 years when the Skins are burning in cap hell. :FIREdevil

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Old 12-13-2005, 03:25 PM   #37
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by #56fanatic
I just had to come back and see what you people had to say about me and my post regarding the cap. Of course I supply the articles that show how teams run into the problems they do. And of course, the Redskins are above all other 31 teams and have a magical cap that no one else understands and no one else in the league has figured out. I forgot that most of our stuff is done in fantasy land, what am I thinking? You wanted proof of where I get my info, I gave it to you and you say that its not worth anything, that absolutely cracks me up. This is from a CAPOLOGIST, who does this, who knows the cap. How you and everyone else can discredit a capologist is beyond me. Of course Vinney and Dannys minions are going to say what they say. You quoted a redskin article. Are they going to come out and say we are mortgaging our future every year by handling contract this way, NO, HELL NO. they are going to say it, we have a plan, 3 year plan. Well , yeah, all these players they have now are young. and they can rework the deals to create cap room for upcoming years. But what are they going to do when these players are getting old and have to be cut, because that is what they are going to have to do. They are not going to be able to pay these backloaded deals. LaVar is a perfect example, 12 million, now you can rework it to save for the next 3 years, but when that 3 years is up, rework again? you have to pay the contracts eventually, You cannot run from it. Ask 49ers, Cowboys, Titans. You have to pay these off eventually, they dont go away, the debt just doesn't disappear. Like I said, maybe not next year or the year after, but when Portis, Arrington, Washington , Griffin, Taylor, Moss, when all these guys are getting older and it a decision do you pay them the 10 million or cut them? And when you cut them, yeah you may not pay the 10 million all in one year, but you still have to pay it over two year period. Are they going to do that with everyone? Is everyone going to be willing to renegotiate there contract? Dont think that every person here is loyal to this franchise because that is in no way the case. Samuels refused to rework his deal until his contract was up. They decided to pay him the 9 million the last year of his deal, but that was because they had to let players go, rework some deals here and there, which is all fine and dandy if other players agree to do it. This is all on assumption that players are willing to do these things, and Samuels is an example that no everyone is going to do it. Dont worry fellas, when all this happens I will hopefully be out here to say I dont you so. It may be 3 years, 5 years however many years, but it will happen. You cant keep putting off the payment of these contracts forever.


You know, you all questioning what a capologist does, is like questioning Bill Gates on Microsoft. Now you are going to say I am questioning Vinny, Well, tell me somebody that is going to come out and say his business is in 3 years going to have to make major cuts, cut costs and we are going to struggle for the 3 or 4 years, but we'll be back. Nobody, they will say down the end that we have plan, everything is great, we are thriving, ENRON, ring a bell. I am using that as an example of people who run businesses not telling you truth about what is going on. But, I guess Vinny, Danny and the minions always tell the truth, I forgot they are the gods, the greatest management ever assembled, the greatest owner and yes men ever, thats why our best record is 8-8 in 8 years.
Still.

You still don't get it man. I fully recognize that you have to eat the cap hit on a signing bonus. But you're just not grasping how it can be fit under the cap.

The cap doesn't sit at $85 million for eternity, you know. Next year it will be something between $92-$95 million. The next year (assuming the CBA gets reworked), it will be like $105 million. And the next year, close to $120 million.

When the cap grows like that you can afford to kick more bonus money down the road. Let's say, hypothetically, that this year the cap is $100 million and grows $10 million each year. Why would we eat a $5 million base salary this year, when it represents 5% of our cap, when we could spread it to later years when it will represent a smaller % of our cap?

Eating it all this year:
5/100 = 5%

Eating it gradually over 5 years:
1/100 = 1%
1/110 = 0.90%
1/120 = 0.83%
1/130 = 0.77%
1/140 = 0.71%

Total % = 4.23%

If you eat it all in year 1, you eat 5% of your cap that year. If you spread it evenly, you eat a smaller percentage of your cap. It's called leverage.

You talk like these capologist writers know what they're doing. THEY'RE WRITERS. Talk to someone with a finance or accounting background, we'll all tell you the same thing. The Skins are fine.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:31 PM   #38
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Re: We must draft better...

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Originally Posted by Schneed10
Still.

You still don't get it man. I fully recognize that you have to eat the cap hit on a signing bonus. But you're just not grasping how it can be fit under the cap.

The cap doesn't sit at $85 million for eternity, you know. Next year it will be something between $92-$95 million. The next year (assuming the CBA gets reworked), it will be like $105 million. And the next year, close to $120 million.

When the cap grows like that you can afford to kick more bonus money down the road.

You talk like these capologist writers know what they're doing. THEY'RE WRITERS. Talk to someone with a finance or accounting background, we'll all tell you the same thing. The Skins are fine.
Yes I do understand the cap does not stay the same. Do the contracts stay the same, NO. The contracts increase in size every year. they may get a 60 million dollar deal this year, and 70 million dollar deal next year, so what is the point? I dont think you people understand. You are buying into the organization and the spin they put on everything. Do you think they operate a cap system different than 31 other teams. That they have figured out some magical way around this. You have to be dilusional if you think that. Dont you think that there would be somebody else that after 11 years would have figured out this magical way of handleing the cap, or is Danny and boys the only ones that know it. come on, be serious. Like the articles from the Capologist and other experts say, you can mortgage the future for however long you want, but eventually you have to pay, there is no way around it, no matter what you plan for. The cap does not increase in the amounts needed to accomodate the large contracts. I mean some guys are like 20 million on the cap towards the end of the contract, farve is like 15% to 20% of his whole teams cap. that is why they stink!! that is why they cant afford to pay the offensive line man they lost. Same with the Titans.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:34 PM   #39
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Re: We must draft better...

And all teams do it this way. They all use bonuses to spread the cap hit out over the long haul. But you're right, that must be the wrong way to go. After all, all these billionaire owners became billionaires by managing money like idiots.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:36 PM   #40
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by #56fanatic
Yes I do understand the cap does not stay the same. Do the contracts stay the same, NO. The contracts increase in size every year. they may get a 60 million dollar deal this year, and 70 million dollar deal next year, so what is the point? I dont think you people understand. You are buying into the organization and the spin they put on everything. Do you think they operate a cap system different than 31 other teams. That they have figured out some magical way around this. You have to be dilusional if you think that. Dont you think that there would be somebody else that after 11 years would have figured out this magical way of handleing the cap, or is Danny and boys the only ones that know it. come on, be serious. Like the articles from the Capologist and other experts say, you can mortgage the future for however long you want, but eventually you have to pay, there is no way around it, no matter what you plan for. The cap does not increase in the amounts needed to accomodate the large contracts. I mean some guys are like 20 million on the cap towards the end of the contract, farve is like 15% to 20% of his whole teams cap. that is why they stink!! that is why they cant afford to pay the offensive line man they lost. Same with the Titans.
Yes you do eventually have to pay. The question isn't about whether or not you have to pay. The question is can you afford to pay when you've mortgaged the future? The big cap hits are coming, but the Skins are positioned in such a way to be able to handle them.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:37 PM   #41
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Re: We must draft better...

Nobody is saying the Skins operate the cap to perfection. Of course they will face some difficult decisions along the way just like they did last year with Pierce and Smoot.

But what we are saying is the Redskins have a plan in place, and they closely monitor how signing player X today is going to effect the cap down the road and how that will effect their ability to sign player Y.

You're acting like all contracts suddenly come due all at once. The Skins have the contracts spread out and structured so in any given year they know what is going to come due and they plan accordingly.

The cap articles you referenced are true, but as someone said they are basically capology 101.

Answer me this one simple thing, back in '00 the Skins spent like crazy, so why did they not fall into cap hell from that record breaking spending spree like the media said they would??
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:38 PM   #42
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Re: We must draft better...

ESPN.com 8/31/00

"Redskins owner Daniel Snyder has the league abuzz by his $100-plus million spending spree this season. Capwise, they are in great shape for now. They have a $1 million cushion in this year's cap and are roughly only $700,000 over next season.

While most consider the cap window for a top team to be five years, the Redskins' window may only be three or four years because Snyder eventually faces tough cap consequences. Quarterback Brad Johnson, wide receiver Albert Connell and linebacker Greg Jones are free agents next year. Guard Tre Johnson, defensive end Kenard Lang and wide receiver Michael Westbrook are up after next year. Where the Redskins will run into cap trouble if Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith and Mark Carrier can't go longer than two seasons. The cap hits coupled with the high-priced re-signings could cause major cap problems for Snyder in 2002."

Pro Football Weekly 3/5/01

"The Redskins will be the next team in serious trouble. Loading up on veteran stars, Redskins owner Dan Snyder spent about $92 million last year. By deferring salary-cap obligations with various schemes, Snyder got under the $62 million ceiling, but the Redskins soon will face cap problems that will level them for several years. And what did Snyder get? A team that finished 8-8, out of the playoffs."

I think what Matty, Schneed and others are basically saying is that since the dawn of time we've heard that salary cap hell is just around the corner for Dan Snyder's Redskins. Yet, we keep working around it and we just remain in salary cap purgatory. It's like the NFL media experts who cried wolf. They keep saying we'll have to do a major purge but so far it really hasn't happened. So why should we believe it will?
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:40 PM   #43
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Re: We must draft better...

Thanks for digging those up Tafkas, that's my point exactly.
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:41 PM   #44
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Re: We must draft better...

56fanatic, since you have such a profound understanding of the salary cap, please go to the Cap Info section of the Warpath and tell me where you think the Skins are in danger. I want you to point out specific players in specific years and explain what they will do to our cap, and how it will hurt us so badly.

If you can't do that, you don't understand finance and you don't understand the salary cap. All the reading you do of "capologist" articles are great for building a general understanding of caponomics, but you have to be able to apply it to the Redskins' situation. That's your homework. No more talking in generalities. I want to discuss specifics, which contracts specifically are going to cause the Redskins to enter cap hell?
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Old 12-13-2005, 03:59 PM   #45
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10
Yes you do eventually have to pay. The question isn't about whether or not you have to pay. The question is can you afford to pay when you've mortgaged the future? The big cap hits are coming, but the Skins are positioned in such a way to be able to handle them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk72
Nobody is saying the Skins operate the cap to perfection. Of course they will face some difficult decisions along the way just like they did last year with Pierce and Smoot.

But what we are saying is the Redskins have a plan in place, and they closely monitor how signing player X today is going to effect the cap down the road and how that will effect their ability to sign player Y.
Thank you Schneed, Matty. Nicely put.
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