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Old 12-12-2005, 10:15 PM   #1
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We must draft better...

I have seen many questions about the draft, and I decided to do a lil' analysis of the last 10 years. From looking at our draft history here, I noticed that for the last ten years we have;

-Drafted 62 out of an alloted 70 choices or 88.6%

-From 1996-2000 we drafted 36 players out of an alloted 35 choices or 102%
* 11 top draft choices (TDC-rounds 1-3) OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 3 TDC players are still with the squad or 27% (3/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 4% (1/25)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 26% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-From 2001-2005 we drafted 26 players out of an alloted 36 choices or 74%
* 11 top draft choices OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 7 TDC players are still on squad 63% (7/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 6.6% (1/15)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 52% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-JOE GIBBS II we drafted 10 out of an allocated 14 choices or 71%
* 4 TDC out of a possible 6 choices or 66%
* 4 TDC players are still on squad or 100%
* 3 players outside TDC choices are on squad 50% or (3/6)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 90% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players).

There are multiple variables here that I am not taking into account such as losses via free agency, such as smoot/champ. Secondly, as it is obvious, players drafted in 1996 would have 10 years of experience, there aren't many in the NFL. Having said that, 3 sources of concern; 1) In the last 5 years, we are trading away too many choices, we are only drafting 66+% of what we are capable on TDC players, 2) Of what we are drafting in the TDC we are only able to put on the squad 63%, 3) Our draft capability in the lower rounds is abysmal.

My 2 cents worth....
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Old 12-12-2005, 10:23 PM   #2
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by lifetimeskin
I have seen many questions about the draft, and I decided to do a lil' analysis of the last 10 years. From looking at our draft history here, I noticed that for the last ten years we have;

-Drafted 62 out of an alloted 70 choices or 88.6%

-From 1996-2000 we drafted 36 players out of an alloted 35 choices or 102%
* 11 top draft choices (TDC-rounds 1-3) OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 3 TDC players are still with the squad or 27% (3/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 4% (1/25)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 26% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-From 2001-2005 we drafted 26 players out of an alloted 36 choices or 74%
* 11 top draft choices OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 7 TDC players are still on squad 63% (7/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 6.6% (1/15)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 52% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-JOE GIBBS II we drafted 10 out of an allocated 14 choices or 71%
* 4 TDC out of a possible 6 choices or 66%
* 4 TDC players are still on squad or 100%
* 3 players outside TDC choices are on squad 50% or (3/6)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 90% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players).

There are multiple variables here that I am not taking into account such as losses via free agency, such as smoot/champ. Secondly, as it is obvious, players drafted in 1996 would have 10 years of experience, there aren't many in the NFL. Having said that, 3 sources of concern; 1) In the last 5 years, we are trading away too many choices, we are only drafting 66+% of what we are capable on TDC players, 2) Of what we are drafting in the TDC we are only able to put on the squad 63%, 3) Our draft capability in the lower rounds is abysmal.

My 2 cents worth....
Ya'll need to keep your draft picks for starters and stop your owner from putting your team in cap hell every 5 years

I should know after wathing Jerry Jones drive this teams into the ground with poor drafts, trading 2 number 1's for Galloway and mismanage the cap by overpaying for aging vets and poor FA decisions

Until snyder follows the lead of the new Jerry Jones, my heart goes out to you guys--mediocrity will reign
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Old 12-13-2005, 12:03 AM   #3
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by la73hof
Ya'll need to keep your draft picks for starters and stop your owner from putting your team in cap hell every 5 years

I should know after wathing Jerry Jones drive this teams into the ground with poor drafts, trading 2 number 1's for Galloway and mismanage the cap by overpaying for aging vets and poor FA decisions

Until snyder follows the lead of the new Jerry Jones, my heart goes out to you guys--mediocrity will reign
I think Snyder has gotten a bad rap for his 2000 free agency spending spree. Aside from that year, he hasn't been going overboard during free agency. In 2001, we went after no one. In 2002, we didn't go after a bunch of guys. The 2003 free agency plans were directed by Spurrier. Our 2004 free agent spending spree was directed by Gibbs. This year, we hardly picked up anyone.
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Old 12-13-2005, 02:33 AM   #4
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Re: We must draft better...

What about Rock, he was a damn good find....Gibbs and company has done a pretty good job.
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Old 12-13-2005, 04:18 AM   #5
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by lifetimeskin
I have seen many questions about the draft, and I decided to do a lil' analysis of the last 10 years. From looking at our draft history here, I noticed that for the last ten years we have;

-Drafted 62 out of an alloted 70 choices or 88.6%

-From 1996-2000 we drafted 36 players out of an alloted 35 choices or 102%
* 11 top draft choices (TDC-rounds 1-3) OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 3 TDC players are still with the squad or 27% (3/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 4% (1/25)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 26% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-From 2001-2005 we drafted 26 players out of an alloted 36 choices or 74%
* 11 top draft choices OUT of a possible 15 choices 73%
* 7 TDC players are still on squad 63% (7/11)
* 1 player outside TDC choices on the squad 6.6% (1/15)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 52% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players)

-JOE GIBBS II we drafted 10 out of an allocated 14 choices or 71%
* 4 TDC out of a possible 6 choices or 66%
* 4 TDC players are still on squad or 100%
* 3 players outside TDC choices are on squad 50% or (3/6)
* SMART DRAFT QUOTIENT- 90% (80% of TDC players +20% of other players).

There are multiple variables here that I am not taking into account such as losses via free agency, such as smoot/champ. Secondly, as it is obvious, players drafted in 1996 would have 10 years of experience, there aren't many in the NFL. Having said that, 3 sources of concern; 1) In the last 5 years, we are trading away too many choices, we are only drafting 66+% of what we are capable on TDC players, 2) Of what we are drafting in the TDC we are only able to put on the squad 63%, 3) Our draft capability in the lower rounds is abysmal.

My 2 cents worth....
An interesting and informative analysis. Clearly, we haven't hit on all draft choices. But, before claiming that our lower round drafting is abysmal, how does the Skins draft record compare to other teams. Perhaps it is higher than all but a few teams. Maybe not. Just don't know. The draft is a crap shoot. Also, to be truly comparitive of DRAFTING ability, you have to take into account whether the players are still in the league (Smoot).
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Old 12-13-2005, 04:39 AM   #6
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Re: We must draft better...

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Originally Posted by offiss
Rock was picked under SS. and he is still a 3rd string back.
Uhh ..... most 7th rounder dont even make the team. Hes been here 3 years. How can you even judge Gibbs picks just 2 years after he took over. Also it not easy even to get good players at the top of the draft. Plus Gibbs brings in rookies the right way.... slowly and doesn't expect them to be a quick fix....cause he remembers Desmond Howard lol.
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Old 12-13-2005, 09:28 AM   #7
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Re: We must draft better...

Your anaylsis proves what some on this site dont seem to understand, the draft is an inexact science. A team needs to have as many draft picks as possible in order to minimize the 'risk' of this unproven talent and maximize the chance of getting a future star. Unfortunately (I've said this a million time before on this site) the skins have a coach and front office that likes to give away their draft picks so the organization never realizes the full potential of the draft and is constantly stuck plugging holes with high priced free agents. This is not how successful teams are run.
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Old 12-13-2005, 09:30 AM   #8
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Re: We must draft better...

I'd like to see how some other teams compare.
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Old 12-13-2005, 09:34 AM   #9
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Re: We must draft better...

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Originally Posted by Ramseyfan
I think Snyder has gotten a bad rap for his 2000 free agency spending spree. Aside from that year, he hasn't been going overboard during free agency. In 2001, we went after no one. In 2002, we didn't go after a bunch of guys. The 2003 free agency plans were directed by Spurrier. Our 2004 free agent spending spree was directed by Gibbs. This year, we hardly picked up anyone.
I really dont know where you see he doesn't spend big every year, but thats your opinion. And which leads me to your Spurrier remark. Exactly my point here lately, Spurrier led the spending spree and Gibbs led the spending spree. Why are they leading anything other than practice monday through sunday. That the part of a GM or a knowledgable football guy. I am not saying Gibbs is not knowledgeable so dont start with that crap. 99% of teams need a GM or talent evaluator. there are some exceptions, and I dont thing the Skins are one of them. In no way should a coach, especially one from college, direct a spending spree on free agents. Gibbs shouldn't either. I think he got caught up in all this free agency stuff and the deep pockets of the DANNY!. DRAFT , DRAFT , DRAFT.
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Old 12-13-2005, 09:38 AM   #10
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by irish
Your anaylsis proves what some on this site dont seem to understand, the draft is an inexact science. A team needs to have as many draft picks as possible in order to minimize the 'risk' of this unproven talent and maximize the chance of getting a future star. Unfortunately (I've said this a million time before on this site) the skins have a coach and front office that likes to give away their draft picks so the organization never realizes the full potential of the draft and is constantly stuck plugging holes with high priced free agents. This is not how successful teams are run.
dude, something else we agree on. I have said it for a long time now, this organization will not win consistantly if they do not draft well. We do not have the right people in place to make personel decisions. I mean people that can go out and find that diamond in the rough. I think our scouting group goes to USC games and scouts Reggie Bush! that is stupid, or Texan to scout Vince Young. These things are rediculous. They need to be able to go out and find these guys in 4th to 7th rounds, or undrafted players that have football talent. Patriots do it every year, Philly the good organizations do it year in and year out. They plug holes with draft picks.
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Old 12-13-2005, 09:46 AM   #11
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Re: We must draft better...

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Ya'll need to keep your draft picks for starters and stop your owner from putting your team in cap hell every 5 years
I'd like you to point to one time during Snyders reign that we've actually been in salary cap hell, as you put it. The "experts" tell us every year that we have no money and we have to cut half the team, I have yet to see anything to that extent. I'll argue that the Redskins are far and away one of the top teams in the NFL at managing the cap. We've had lengthy discussions with CrazyCannuck on here (who seems to know a lot about the cap) and it seems the Redskins factor in X amount of lost money due to the cap in order to make everything else work. While I don't like our free agency sprees often, they have yet to actually kill us via the salary cap.

As far as drafting, I think we get a bum rap for it. Granted, I don't think we've handled our picks very well (Ie giving them away) but in the first round we've been dead on lately. (In no particular order) Taylor, Rogers, Arrington, Bailey, Samuels. While most people argue you should get that #1 pick right, fact is many teams miss on their #1s. I think we need to work a little harder to develop our late picks so we have sufficient depth (especially seeing what our secondary looks like this year!)

Now, Im also not opposed giving up a #1 or a #2 pick for a guy that's proven but still young enough to give us a good 6-10 years. When we did the Coles trade I thought it was a good use of a first rounder. We got a receiver that was talented, established, and from all accounts a good team guy. I know Coles has been demonized here, but I think using a first round pick in that sense is okay IF you feel like the players in the draft aren't as good or would take too long to develop. Ideally we can keep picking up players like Marcus Washington for cheap and build through the draft, but he's the steal of a lifetime.
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Old 12-13-2005, 10:16 AM   #12
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Re: We must draft better...

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I'd like you to point to one time during Snyders reign that we've actually been in salary cap hell, as you put it. The "experts" tell us every year that we have no money and we have to cut half the team, I have yet to see anything to that extent. I'll argue that the Redskins are far and away one of the top teams in the NFL at managing the cap. We've had lengthy discussions with CrazyCannuck on here (who seems to know a lot about the cap) and it seems the Redskins factor in X amount of lost money due to the cap in order to make everything else work. While I don't like our free agency sprees often, they have yet to actually kill us via the salary cap.

As far as drafting, I think we get a bum rap for it. Granted, I don't think we've handled our picks very well (Ie giving them away) but in the first round we've been dead on lately. (In no particular order) Taylor, Rogers, Arrington, Bailey, Samuels. While most people argue you should get that #1 pick right, fact is many teams miss on their #1s. I think we need to work a little harder to develop our late picks so we have sufficient depth (especially seeing what our secondary looks like this year!)

Now, Im also not opposed giving up a #1 or a #2 pick for a guy that's proven but still young enough to give us a good 6-10 years. When we did the Coles trade I thought it was a good use of a first rounder. We got a receiver that was talented, established, and from all accounts a good team guy. I know Coles has been demonized here, but I think using a first round pick in that sense is okay IF you feel like the players in the draft aren't as good or would take too long to develop. Ideally we can keep picking up players like Marcus Washington for cheap and build through the draft, but he's the steal of a lifetime.
Boy, where does one start. The cap hell thing, I hope I am still here when people start to understand why we avoid the cap hell every year. When we restructure contracts that is just moving money to later years, that eventually has to be paid. an example will be Arrington in the offseason with his 12 million cap number. He will restructure(maybe) his deal move some of the money to later years to free up some immediate cash for upcoming seasons. We do not experience these cap hits because of restructuring, or flat out cutting people, which does cost money towards the cap. Generally, so much in 1year and the remaining amount the 2nd year, depends on when they cut him before or after June 1st(I think the date is right)
Regarding the draft picks, those # 1 picks are pretty easy to pick. Those are talented guys that any owner, GM or coach can make. You cant go wrong selecting any of those guys. Granted there may be a few busts here and there, but for the most part your 1st round guys are pretty damn good players. Where our organization has problems is developing young talent and picking quality players in the later rounds. Once we get to the 3rd or 4th round we essentially waste picks(except Cooley, which is a pretty good pick) Coles deal turned out the be awful. He was never the guy we thought he would be, and we lost a ton of money on him. Fact is we never got what we put into it. Now, if we had drafted a receiver from the draft, he may or may not have turned out but we would not have lost 9 million dollars or so. Giving up draft picks for pricy free agents, or players has not proven in the last 10 years to be all that great for this team. Have we won anything, had a winning season, gone to the playoffs? NO, an infatic NO. Why people think this way of filling roster spots or picking up free agent after free agent is making us a better team, I have no idea. Since Danny took over there has not been a steady progression in this teams progress. Only when Norv was here did we see a progression that usually good teams do. Norv started out kinda bad, but his win total increased every year, with a NFC east title, and one play away from the NFC championship. Since Danny took over, and spent freely every year with this guy and that guy, traded pick after pick away, we have been at best 8-8. that is pretty damn bad concidering we generally have the highest payroll every year, and I believe 2nd highest cost of ticket prices. Hopefully Joe or whoever is here over the next several years can persuade The Danny not to put his nose in the "football" business and just write the checks. AND GET A GM FOR CRYIN OUT LOUD!!!
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Old 12-13-2005, 10:35 AM   #13
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Re: We must draft better...

56Fanatic -- I believe Snyder was planning on an uncapped year this coming year which is part of the reason he's holding the CBA from being signed, and whats wrong with restructuring contracts. Every team does it and we just make it work for the player. First round picks aren't as easy as you may say, need I name a few Redskins players drafted in the first round to remind you that it's not a given? We've picked up incrediable talent that people ahead of us missed, Rogers looks to be the best CB thus far in the rookie class this years yet was 3rd CB taken.

While I agree that you have to develop and scout later round picks better, I think we've done a fairly decent job. Rock, Nemo, (I still have faith) McCune, etc.

As far as Coles, let's look at Coles who went to the Pro Bowl in Spurrier's system. Coles was built for that kind of offense and he made HUGE plays. He also got hurt which limited his best skill -- speed. Coles put up monster numbers when he was in an offense that suited him, just like Portis averaged about 5 YPC in denver and it drops to 3.something in Washington. He was in an offense that suits them.

I often wonder what today's "stars" would be if they weren't in the scheme they were in.
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Old 12-13-2005, 10:43 AM   #14
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Re: We must draft better...

Quote:
Originally Posted by #56fanatic
Boy, where does one start. The cap hell thing, I hope I am still here when people start to understand why we avoid the cap hell every year. When we restructure contracts that is just moving money to later years, that eventually has to be paid. an example will be Arrington in the offseason with his 12 million cap number. He will restructure(maybe) his deal move some of the money to later years to free up some immediate cash for upcoming seasons. We do not experience these cap hits because of restructuring, or flat out cutting people, which does cost money towards the cap. Generally, so much in 1year and the remaining amount the 2nd year, depends on when they cut him before or after June 1st(I think the date is right)
Regarding the draft picks, those # 1 picks are pretty easy to pick. Those are talented guys that any owner, GM or coach can make. You cant go wrong selecting any of those guys. Granted there may be a few busts here and there, but for the most part your 1st round guys are pretty damn good players. Where our organization has problems is developing young talent and picking quality players in the later rounds. Once we get to the 3rd or 4th round we essentially waste picks(except Cooley, which is a pretty good pick) Coles deal turned out the be awful. He was never the guy we thought he would be, and we lost a ton of money on him. Fact is we never got what we put into it. Now, if we had drafted a receiver from the draft, he may or may not have turned out but we would not have lost 9 million dollars or so. Giving up draft picks for pricy free agents, or players has not proven in the last 10 years to be all that great for this team. Have we won anything, had a winning season, gone to the playoffs? NO, an infatic NO. Why people think this way of filling roster spots or picking up free agent after free agent is making us a better team, I have no idea. Since Danny took over there has not been a steady progression in this teams progress. Only when Norv was here did we see a progression that usually good teams do. Norv started out kinda bad, but his win total increased every year, with a NFC east title, and one play away from the NFC championship. Since Danny took over, and spent freely every year with this guy and that guy, traded pick after pick away, we have been at best 8-8. that is pretty damn bad concidering we generally have the highest payroll every year, and I believe 2nd highest cost of ticket prices. Hopefully Joe or whoever is here over the next several years can persuade The Danny not to put his nose in the "football" business and just write the checks. AND GET A GM FOR CRYIN OUT LOUD!!!
One of these days I'm going to create a cookie cutter post to put up whenever somebody misunderstands the salary cap as is done in this post.

First off, Snyder is a great business man. He has people who can project the salary cap limits in future years based on the league's growing finances. Actually, as smart as Snyder is with numbers, he can probably do it himself in his head.

The signing bonuses are only part of the equation. The team schedules roster bonuses to occur in lumpsum halfway through the contracts. These bonuses make it very easy for the team to keep the player by restructuring them to signing bonuses. Because of the growth taking place in NFL salaries, once players are 3 years removed from their original signing bonus, the allocated portion of said bonus takes up a lot lower % of the growing salary cap limit. That growing limit is why we never run into "cap hell."

While our cap figure for 2006 looks crappy now, it's very easy for the Skins to fit under the 2006 limit just by cutting a few chumps like Matt Bowen, and then restructuring a bunch of roster bonuses. Our cap figure will come down by about $20 million from where it is now, and we won't have to get rid of any core players. And in future years, the cap will either cease to exist or continue to grow. And Snyder's financial projections will be right on the money.
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Old 12-13-2005, 10:50 AM   #15
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Re: We must draft better...

On draft picks, the "risk" of missing on players you pick is part of the reason it makes sense to trade picks away. For example, we traded a 5th round pick for James Thrash. What are the chances that you're going to find a guy in the draft with a 5th round pick to become more of a sure thing than Thrash is? He's a known commodity, you're getting a good special teams player for a pick that would likely turn into a nobody of a player.

Same thing can be said for the Cooley trade. Gibbs was so confident that Cooley was a sure thing, that he felt comfortable giving up a 2nd rounder the next year. He felt Cooley was more certain to be effective than a player he might find in the 2nd round next year. And so far, we can't complain on that one.

The Campbell trade appears dubious because we gave up so much. But the same line of thinking applies, Gibbs apparently feels that Campbell really is that much of a sure thing to develop into an effective player. Enough that he'll be worth what all those picks could have turned into. To be fair, we have to wait and see on that one.

Champ and a 2nd rounder for Portis seems like a lot though. I'll agree that was a wasted pick.
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