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Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

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Old 12-20-2005, 10:47 PM   #1
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Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

I don't put a lot of faith in betting lines as indicators, but here's the news.

REDSKINS -3 Giants

Since 3 points are generally given to the home team, the line is saying the Giants and Redskins are neutral site equals. This seems... odd, given the records, the head-to-head score, and the New York love that is out there, but what do I know?
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Old 12-20-2005, 11:08 PM   #2
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

Surprising to me. I would have thought the line more like +7 for Gmen. We do better as the underdog.
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Old 12-20-2005, 11:17 PM   #3
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

I check the line just about every week for sh*ts and giggles and the line never moved last week at all. It stayed at Redskins by 3 the whole time. So far its been the same for the Giants game. I kind of wonder what goes into making the line, because I would of thought the G-men and the Cowboys should of both been favored, oh well maybe we beat the G-men 35-7 as well. Go Skins.
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Old 12-21-2005, 01:52 AM   #4
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

The betting line is just a barometer of popular opinion, nothing else. It fluctuates until one half the bets are for one team, and the other half of the bets are for the other team. That way, the house is guaranteed to make money.

This means that a lot of betters are on the Skins' bandwagon.
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Old 12-21-2005, 02:04 AM   #5
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirtbag
The betting line is just a barometer of popular opinion, nothing else. It fluctuates until one half the bets are for one team, and the other half of the bets are for the other team. That way, the house is guaranteed to make money.

This means that a lot of betters are on the Skins' bandwagon.
Well sorta...
It flucuates until half the money bet is on oneside and half on the other....ij theory. Never works out of course but it the goal. Th main work goes into the first number which basically sets the barometer. A bad first number screws everything up.
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Old 12-21-2005, 09:20 AM   #6
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

the line gives you a good idea on how the money is being bet.rocko and the boys in vegas usually have a pretty good idea on the inside of the nfl.if not,you find them wearing a pair of cement shoes somewhere
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Old 12-21-2005, 09:42 AM   #7
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

i saw a story on hbo's real sports about how a line is figured out. a few guys in jersey seem to have a lot of influence on how the preliminary lines shape up before even seeing vegas. supposedly, they're insanely adept at sizing up point spreads early. Feelers are then sent off shore, right before vegas gets them.
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Old 12-21-2005, 11:43 AM   #8
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmek25
the line gives you a good idea on how the money is being bet.rocko and the boys in vegas usually have a pretty good idea on the inside of the nfl.if not,you find them wearing a pair of cement shoes somewhere
I think you are thinking about paramutual wagering where the odds change in real time based on the $ bet. Thats the way it works at the track. Football lines (not odds) are set and moved by the house not by how much people bet. They set that line at the point where the house thinks they can get a 50-50 split on the $ wagered on that game.

I am surprised the line is so low, I thought the skins would be +7 at least. I wonder what the over/under is.
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Old 12-21-2005, 12:11 PM   #9
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

Quote:
Originally Posted by irish
I think you are thinking about paramutual wagering where the odds change in real time based on the $ bet. Thats the way it works at the track. Football lines (not odds) are set and moved by the house not by how much people bet. They set that line at the point where the house thinks they can get a 50-50 split on the $ wagered on that game.

I am surprised the line is so low, I thought the skins would be +7 at least. I wonder what the over/under is.
You are right that the lines dont move in "real time", but the lines do move when they are taking too much action on one side. It doesnt happen to every game in every week, but I have definitely gone to bet a line on Sunday morning that had moved half a point or so from that previous week.
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Old 12-21-2005, 12:49 PM   #10
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

Quote:
Originally Posted by amorentz
You are right that the lines dont move in "real time", but the lines do move when they are taking too much action on one side. It doesnt happen to every game in every week, but I have definitely gone to bet a line on Sunday morning that had moved half a point or so from that previous week.
Or the line could move because of a key injury or suspension during the week. I guess what I am saying is that the house can move a line for a multitude of reasons, $ being one of them, but the house moves the line because they want to, the line does not move by itself. Also, a football line is not the same as odds.
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Old 12-21-2005, 02:51 PM   #11
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

I would have loved to have bet last week. Wasn't it 2.5 Skins? I guess we covered the spread didn't we?
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Old 12-21-2005, 04:38 PM   #12
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

if a huge amount bet one way,the line will move.almost if like the bookies are listening to the real fan
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Old 12-22-2005, 12:16 AM   #13
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

the bookies dont give a damn about the fans, they only care about the money... more money, higher take, better profit margins.

If people bet too much to one side they shift to equal out the money on both sides so they don't end up paying out to cover.
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Old 12-22-2005, 10:12 AM   #14
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Re: Vegas line as of 9:45 pm EST 12/20

No movement on the line so far...
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