The question isn't really whether China "picks" Russia or US, it's at what point do they think they can bully the smaller nations around them enough to get what they want, and in that bullying, do they miscalculate the response of their neighbors, which triggers a rise that becomes self fulfilling. We see that right now, with Russia and Ukraine, Russia clearly is living in a realpolitik frame, and the question is do they miscalculate. Going further, and this is like an ant telling an aardvark it better be ready for a fight, but Canada of all countries proclaimed that "[they are] ready for confrontation with #Russia if the country expands its ambitions in the #Arctic region." Who do you think Canada would rely on to back them up? (
http://rt.com/news/182992-canada-sov...arctic-russia/) Or when Poland sends aid to the Ukrainian Army, who underwrites the ties?
Or when the Japanese mull building a new era fighter jet,
Japan mulls building its own fighter jets - Channel NewsAsia, do you think they will fail to protect their interests if China miscalculates? and do you think the US would disown Japanese protection if it got down and dirty fast?
Simply pointing out that compare pre-WWI world, with the current criss cross of political alliances, public and secret, and it's pretty crazy. And if the US leaders think like Wilson, Chamberlain, Carter, I think the US could be in for a rude surprise.