[30gut]

I think you're both right. Kirk can make all the throws. But from what I've seen his arm isn't strong enough to make those throws without perfect form. Imo he has to throw off platform from a muddy pocket or off balance etc. He doesn't have the arm strength in those situations to drive the ball with velocity and that causes him to spray passes off target (high,low, short, behind etc).

I also think the current emphasis on getting the ball out quick has Kirk playing close too hurried. I think Kirk is playing with an over emphasis on not taking sacks. Its good to get the ball out quick and beat the rush etc. But when you're rushing and it effects your footwork and you miss a wide open gimme throws (like the one he missed to Garcon in the flat on (iirc) 2nd and 2 in the Jets) then its a problem. Like Wooden said ~'be quick, but don't hurry'. Also, and maybe its mere co-incidence but I wonder if Griffin being active put Kirk on more pressure?

BUT part and parcel with Kirk's struggles is the coaching. The gameplan and playcalling remains predictable. In broad strokes without getting too far into the weeds; Jay's offense lacks disguise. By and large on first down if its a run he's going to use a formation that indicates run. I-Form or Single back usually with base personnel or 2/3 TEs. IF Jay drop back passes on 1st down its usually from a formation that he doesn't use to run. Shotgun 1 back or under center 3 wide or empty (and the pass is usually a screen). You know why defense seem to be all over the WR screen to Crowder on 1st down? Because its one of the only passes we run from that shotgun formation on 1st down.
Imho If they want to be a better run team they need to run the ball from some of the same formations, personnel and down and distance that they pass from.

TLDR: Jay's offense 1st down= run from base formations/base personnel.
IF Jay's offense comes out in a pass set on 1st down its going to be a pass.
Defenses have a good read on what's coming based on formations.