Originally Posted by metalskins
The more I think about this, the more complicated it is. The Redskins almost have to tag Cousins this year, if they want to keep him long term. Because, Cousins is going to take the best offer. He is not loyal to sticking with the Redskins if they can't offer him the best deal. The Redskins have already paid him $20M in guaranteed money. So, they tag him again, they're paying him $44M in guaranteed money for last year and this year. I think last year, Cousins was wanting something close to $20M/year with about $60M guaranteed. So, you tag him again, he's getting just $16M shy of his original asking price of $60M guaranteed.
So, if you're the Redskins, you probably slap the exclusive franchise tag on him so that he can't negotiate with other teams, and hope you can negotiate a contract where he can get about $30M guaranteed this year, which would be a total of about $50M guaranteed money with what he got last year. The biggest thing would be to negotiate on the yearly base salary. In the end, the Redskins would wind up giving Cousins basically what he was asking for last year with a bit more per year, which is probably the best deal the Redskins could get. I have a feeling though, that yearly salary would probably go up. It would just wind up being a case where the Redskins were willing to give Cousins what he wanted all long (with somewhat of an increase), but they just wanted one more year out of him to make sure he was worth it.
If the 'skins decide to do the nonexclusive tag on Cousins, then that's a big gamble. The upside is that they could see, exactly, what other teams think of Cousins' worth, which would help to decide what type of contract the Redskins must offer Cousins if they want to keep him. If they don't match, they get two first rounders or whatever else is negotiated. At least the Redskins would not leave the table empty handed. The bad news is, if the plan all along is to keep Cousins no matter what, then if a team says they will give Cousins $26/yr with $65M guaranteed, then if the 'skins want to match that, you're looking at having to pay Cousins $85M in guaranteed money (with the tag cost from the previous year), in addition to what his base salary is going to cost. So, all in all, the Redskins will have wound up giving Cousins much more than what Cousins was asking for last year - and as far as the money side of it goes, the Redskins will have gambled and lost.
So, basically, I'm saying that the Redskins are tagging Cousins. If they tag him as exclusive, then that tells me they really want to keep him and negotiate a long term deal. Probably highly likely. If they tag him nonexclusive, they're probably hoping the right team will come by (maybe one that happens to have a franchise quarterback who is unhappy with the team) to offer the right deal that gives the Redskins what they need in order to be OK with moving on from Kirk Cousins. I see this is not very likely, but not out of the realm of possibility.
No tag whatsoever means they're either going to gamble big and hope that Cousins comes down to earth on what he's asking for, or that they already have plans to move on from him and draft a guy they hope has a higher ceiling. I don't see this happening at all. I think the Redskins want Kirk Cousins long term. I think they just want an opportunity to hold negotiations on a level playing field, and tagging him is about the only way to do it.
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