Quote:
Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins
Here is the way I see it we have 619,000 confrimed cases and 27,000 confirmed deaths that is over a 4% fatality rate. If we factor in the CDC evaluation that 25% of cases are asymptomatic at the most we are lookuing at 774,000 cases. Even with that value the death rate is 3.5%. This is all with the measures in place. This isn't even including an exteremly high hospitilization rate https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm (For March ). If we remove stay at home orders what does that infection rate jump to? Are we really willing to risk a 3.5% death rate with a much larger infected population? If people are worried about the economy they really need to think about what those values would do to the economy. |
I guess some of the thought process says that if you shut down all restaurants, schools, hotels, malls, etc... for at least the two years that it takes to get a vaccine out to the masses, is there permanent economic damage done by that point. Could the country have collapsed in that time frame?. Is there reasonable chances that the fed. government could collapse entirely within two years time, with the majority of people unemployed, etc...
I don't have these answers because i think we are in uncharted territory here, what is happening and what we are doing has never happened before. Two years of lockdowns, etc.. might be the death blow for America.
I would think at some point the massive food shortages, civil unrest, rioting, suicides, overdoses, etc. as people lose all hope, etc., would have also have an effect on the overall death toll. No easy answer. Who knows, before May 1st, maybe Trump and the governors realize that there is no way to re-open the states or the country, and we are on a doomed path and nothing we can do will change the course. I have no idea.