Commanders Post at The Warpath - View Single Post - Does 9-7 Get Us In?

VishsSkins · 11-29-2005, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by e16bball

We can get in at 9-7. Why, you might ask? Our conference record, I would answer.

If we win 4 out of the next 5 to go 9-7. our NFC record will be 9-3, thanks to losing all of our games to the AFC West.

Obviously it would be preferable to win out, but 9-7 can do it. Here's what needs to happen:

One of Dallas or the G-Men must go 2-3 the rest of the way, to end up at 9-7. Both of these COULD happen, as long as we beat the team who LOSES their matchup next week. Assume that the Cowboys lose, since it's at the Meadowlands. We then must beat the Cowboys at FedEx. Then, they would have to lose one more game of their remaining 3. Those games are vs. Kansas City, @Carolina, and vs. St. Louis. That, I believe, will happen. If we go 4-1 down the stretch and end up tying the Cowboys in this manner, we are the 2nd place team in the NFC East.

But what about the NFC South, you say? Here's what needs to go down. One of Carolina, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay must finish at 9-7. Carolina already has 8 wins, so I really doubt they end up 1-4 over the last 5. Thus, we'll have to concentrate on the Falcons and Bucs, both of whom would have to 2-3 or worse.

Here is the Falcons' schedule: @Carolina, vs. New Orleans, @Chicago, @Tampa Bay, vs. Carolina.

Here is the Bucs' schedule: @New Orleans, @Carolina, @New England, vs. Atlanta, New Orleans.

Either of those teams, in all honesty, could end up 9-7, or even worse. The only proviso is that if Tampa Bay is the 9-7 team, we also need Minnesota to be 9-7.

Why does it matter that teams get to 9-7? Because the number one tiebreaker (besides head-to-head) in wild card selection is conference record. And we will have the best conference record of any of these teams. As long as we aren't tied alone with Tampa Bay, we will win any tiebreaker.

To sum up...

ROOT FOR: Giants (against the Cowboys), Carolina (against ATL and TB), New Orleans (against everyone), Kansas City (against 'Boys and G-Men), Redskins (obviously), and Minnesota (to go 9-7).

ROOT AGAINST: Cowboys (also obviously), Tampa Bay, Atlanta.

These are good points. I was going over the playoff picture myself yesterday and pretty much came up with the same situations you listed. I am a little confused though about some of the things you said, like why we need Minnesota to get to 9-7 if Tampa ends up at 9-7. To try and clear things up, if we end up at 9-7, Tampa would have to be 8-8 since they beat us and therefore hold the tiebreaker. Since this is unlikely, they would get one of the wild card spots over us (assuming the panthers win the South). But even then, we can still get the final spot if the Falcons and either the giants or cowboys finish at 9-7, which, as you said, is not out of the question. Minnesota can finish 9-7 too and we would go over them but this is not necessary even if the Bucs go 9-7.