Quote:
Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule
Houston doesnt have recourse to sue. The CBA specifies the fines and salary loss. You aren't bankrupting Watson any more than we bankrupted TW. If Houston doesn't trade him he will pretty assuredly sit out this year, or come back in week 11 to ensure the contract year doesnt toll but find a reaaon to not suit up.
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Watson will be bankrupted, without suing, by simply not collecting a salary. You are correct the fines come out of salary not paid. The team can sue for bonus money, but there are limitations. Basically, Watson comes back Week 11, team can sue him for prorated 10 weeks of bonus. Some variation depending on bye week?, suspect it is just treated like a standard pay week. Most teams don't do that because alienates player permanently, but they can. That's around $3.5M, and Watson basically then gets hosed for twice that amount because he paid taxes and agent fees already. They can also take fines out of his checks from week 11 onward, which are I believe more dispersed under new CBA, checks throughout like 8 months of year keep players with budgeting skills of 7 year olds from going broke, not just weekly game checks. He's due $10.5M in 2021, but gets 38% of that only, because of games missed. About $4M. Some variation with preseason games how they count etc., could make that higher, but most estimates say Watson holds out of everything, fines are $3M to $4M. That means he earns $1M maximum, after fines, and it could be nothing or he could even end up owing team money. His effective earnings 2021 are thus NOTHING if he holds out. And this isn't some guy that lives frugally on the few million he hasn't spent. Even if he makes $1M in 2021, pays half in taxes, 3% agent fee or whatever, etc.
I do not know how holdout has changed under new CBA, when player can come back and still get entire season. They tightened some previsions on holdouts, but I don't know.
TW collected fat checks almost a decade. Situation not analogous. TW easily worth $50M+ liquid when he held out.
I agree he will sit out this year probably, and my point is Houston ownership is fine with that and has him by the balls. They will eat the money and cornhole him because the money matters MUCH less to them than him. And by the time year 2 rolls around, of the holdout, Watson will be rolling up on broke, in NFL player terms. His market value not playing football is under $100K, optimistically. Houston owners rake in the cash from TV deal even if Watson doesn't play and tickets don't sell. I also think owners in general STRONGLY support Houston owners, simply because they aren't going to let players take huge new deals with tons of guaranteed money and then hold them hostage and hijack their golden goose. There is always another player, even at QB, and a huge line of players have learned that the hard way. Love it or hate it, owners wield almost all power in NFL.
2022 is the first year Watson earns real money, $35M, but if he holds out, that drops. to $13.3M, minus $4M fines, $9.3M, half for taxes agent fees, $4.7M left. Not chump change, but not a pile either, especially because he is now on hook for 2 years of bonus money, which team will certainly go after by 2022, which is 6.7M or something for two years prorated. Probably involves player's union, but team can still sue. And he has to get to 2022. By that time, end of 2022 season, he's rolling up on 28 by start of next season, and has squandered his prime. I don't think it'll get to that. But Houston can just sit on it and hose him. They can sign another QB free agent, draft one, whatever, and earn the TV revenue.
Watson is a HOLE, and dumb, for not thinking it through before signing new deal. I fully expect Houston to maintain its zero-tolerance no trade policy for years. By 2022 Watson will cave, for sure, and the team can easily eat the $13.3M just out of spite as dead cap money.
Watson isn't going ANYWHERE, except to bankruptcy court if he doesn't play by 2022, and by that time I think he will certainly cave simply because his years of high earning are limited, whereas Houston ownership earns forever no matter what players they have or don't have. I hope he does hold out and go broke, that would serve him right for being such a HOLE, taking pirate ships full of loot for signing bonus and than reneging on his contractual obligations.