Quote:
Originally Posted by Coff
From what I can find, statistically there is very little difference between eventually converting from 2nd and 10 (roughly 54%) versus from 3rd and 5 (roughly 49%). Going by that alone, you would decline the penalty, but it's close. The difference could be that you have a slightly better chance at forcing an INT if you accept the penalty and force them to pass twice. Hard to say. Either way, there's plenty of room for debate and it's not a critical error or brainless decision to choose one over the other.
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I think giving a team two chances to get 10 yards as opposed to giving them one chance to get 5 yards is stupid. I don't know if what you are finding statistically is taking into account - simply getting the first down on the next play, or getting the first down at all (since accepting the penalty gave them more opportunities).
Like (I think) Punch said, if the penalty will potentially push them out of FG range, fine. But that was not the case.