Quote:
Originally Posted by Chico23231
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics...f-more-1m-jobs
The Philadelphia Fed's report, released last week, week estimated that from March to June of this year, the U.S. added just 10,500 jobs, a glaring difference from the 1,121,500 estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
You can’t trust anything this administration says or does. Of course this isn’t being covered by the media
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chico , you really are stupid.It's why your the joke of the forum.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...?siteid=yhoof2
The Philadelphia Fed last week said that only 10,500 net new jobs were added between March and June, compared with the 1.05 million reported in the nonfarm-payrolls reports.
In the two previous quarters that the Philadelphia Fed has examined, however, it didn’t find a big disparity. In the first quarter, the Philly Fed estimated 1.7 million were jobs were created, compared with the 1.62 million tabulated by the BLS, and, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the Philadelphia Fed estimated 2.02 million jobs were created, compared with the BLS figure of 1.91 million.
Economists at First Trust led by Brian Wesbury point out that the Philadelphia Fed model is new. “Given that the Philadelphia Fed just started publishing results from its own internal model, meaning there isn’t much of a track record to go on, we’d say it’s probably right to take this report with a grain of salt. Theoretically, everything about this model might be sound, but even sound models often clash with reality. For example, the ADP model has never lived up to its hype,” the First Trust economists say.
In particular, the First Trust team say what could be the issue is that seasonality is not fully accounted for in the new model.
And in fact, the household report — the part of the jobs report used to calculate the unemployment rate — says that employment fell by 347,000 in the second quarter.
“Given the divergence between data from the household and establishment surveys in 2022 we wouldn’t be surprised at all by downward revisions to the employment data when they are released in March of 2023. But we will definitely take the over on 10,500 jobs added in [the second quarter],” they say.