[jsarno]

It's a very good overview Quake, but I feel you are incorrect on a lot of areas.
1- Steelers have a rookie head coach. They finished 8-8 under a hall of fame head coach last year, and as you pointed out, not real changes. Due to this fact, there is no way they will hit even 10 wins. I see a 7-9 season or a 8-8 season. BTW- Troy just signed a nice contract too, which generally means those people will under perform. They are overrated. I'll say 7-9.
2- Ravens, I tend to agree with you on this one, but I do feel they played over their heads last year. Look at McNair, he threw for only 3050 yards, and had 16 tds and 12 ints. How in the world can a team produce that little from the QB position and still end up with 13 wins? They were 13th in passing yards in the NFL, and 25th in rushing yards in the NFL. The reason they were able to pull it off is cause they only let up 201 points (good for 1st in the NFL). But I feel the defense will come back down to earth a little too. They are older and while they did rank 1st last year (in terms of points against) their previous years were 05- 10th, 04- 6th, 03- 6th, 02- 19th. Do I think they will drop to 19th...no. I do think they will drop to around 6th or so. Add to that, imagine this team without McNair. Well, it will happen for at least 1/4th of the season because he is too old and fragile not miss time this year. Willis was cast out of Buffalo because he underperformed and seemed to have "lost a step". I do think Willis is a step up, but he is learning a new offense, and the blockers will have to learn him. The Ravens still have no wr's. This is a 8-8 to 9-7 team. Due to the fact that I firmly believe that defense wins overall, I'll say 9-7.
3- Cincy was 11-5 in 05 with 22nd ranked D. They were 8-8 last year with the 17th ranked D. They did lose 4 ranking points in offense from 05 to 06, but does that translate into 3 fewer wins...I don't think so. I think last year was a fluke for Cincy. For some reason last year they were streaky. They started the season winning 3 in a row, then losing 2 in a row, then won 1, then lost 3 in a row. Then they won 4 in row, then lost 3 to end the season. 5 of their 8 losses were by 6 points or less. 3 of the losses were by 2 points or less. (2 were by 1 point) This team will rebound. The defense will rank around 13th-15th, to expect otherwise from one of the greatest defensive minds is not sane. This defense will produce better this year, and will be a top 4 offense. This team should see a rebound back to the 05 season and see 11 wins. 11-5.
4- Browns. I don't know where you got your stats, but football reference shows the Browns having the 30th ranked offense out of 32 teams. (not that it's much better, just saying). Oddly enough, that was a 2 rank improvement from 05 where they were dead last. The difference was, in 05 they were ranked 11th in D and had 6 wins with the worst offense in football. Last year they fell to 22nd in D last year. This team is more talented that it was last year, but it won't translate to much until Quinn takes over. I expect a 5-6 win season out them. If Quinn plays more than 8 games it will be 6, if he doesn't, it will be 5.

In summation:
1- Cincy 11-5
2- Baltimore 9-7
3- Pittsburgh 7-9
4- Cleveland 6-10