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GTripp0012 · 11-15-2007, 10:03 PM

Which QBs would better the Skins offense right now?

Using FO's DVOA ratings as my guide, I decided to take a list of all QBs who have better stats than Campbell, and list them, then subjectively adjusting it for his lack of oppertunities, and comparing him to where we'd all thought he'd be at this point.

Players ordered by DVOA (QB rating in parenthesis):

Brady (131.8)
Garrard (102.9)
Anderson (90.7)
Manning (90.8)
Romo (103.3)
Garcia (95.5)
Favre (96.2)
Palmer (91.1)
Roethlisberger (110.2)
Cutler (84.8)
Rosenfels* (N/A)
Brees (84.8)
Delhomme* (N/A)
Warner (86.2)
Schaub (85.0)
Hasselbeck (89.3)
McNabb (91.7)
Harrington (81.0)
Jason Campbell (79.9)
Kitna (92.9)

Why does DVOA differ from QB rating so much?Touchdowns, basically. This is most applicable in the case of Roethlisberger and Manning this year. QB rating rewards QBs with 100% of the credit for all passing TDs, where as DVOA gives a fraction of the credit depending on the length of the pass. A first and goal TD pass off play action from the one is worth the same as a 4th down TD pass from midfield for QB rating, but have very different values for DVOA (and...in reality).

I'm removing two guys from this list--one is irrelivant due to season ending injury, and the other is the 2nd Texans QB with a higher rank than Campbell. With them, Campbell ranks 19th, coincidently exactly where QB rating has him.

I'm also projecting Campbell to move ahead of McNabb and Harrington, while staying ahead of Kitna. My reasoning for this is that McNabb has never been particularly statstically impressive, and Harrington is a historically bad QB having an aberration year. So eliminating 2 guys from this list and sliding JC up two spots leads me to rank him as the 15th best QB in the league, behind:

Brady (131.8)
Garrard (102.9)
Anderson (90.7)
Manning (90.8)
Romo (103.3)
Garcia (95.5)
Favre (96.2)
Palmer (91.1)
Roethlisberger (110.2)
Cutler (84.8)
Brees (84.8)
Warner (86.2)
Schaub (85.0)
Hasselbeck (89.3)
Jason Campbell (79.9)

So in essence, my argument is that Jason Campbell is ALREADY a top 15 NFL passer this year and will only get better with time, especially over the next two seasons.

Just a little statstical optimism to throw on top of the rest of this thread.

11-15-2007, 10:03 PM	#3
GTripp0012 Living Legend Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Evanston, IL Age: 37 Posts: 15,994	Re: Jason Campbell Future Pro Bowl QB Which QBs would better the Skins offense right now? Using FO's DVOA ratings as my guide, I decided to take a list of all QBs who have better stats than Campbell, and list them, then subjectively adjusting it for his lack of oppertunities, and comparing him to where we'd all thought he'd be at this point. Players ordered by DVOA (QB rating in parenthesis): Brady (131.8) Garrard (102.9) Anderson (90.7) Manning (90.8) Romo (103.3) Garcia (95.5) Favre (96.2) Palmer (91.1) Roethlisberger (110.2) Cutler (84.8) Rosenfels* (N/A) Brees (84.8) Delhomme* (N/A) Warner (86.2) Schaub (85.0) Hasselbeck (89.3) McNabb (91.7) Harrington (81.0) Jason Campbell (79.9) Kitna (92.9) Why does DVOA differ from QB rating so much?Touchdowns, basically. This is most applicable in the case of Roethlisberger and Manning this year. QB rating rewards QBs with 100% of the credit for all passing TDs, where as DVOA gives a fraction of the credit depending on the length of the pass. A first and goal TD pass off play action from the one is worth the same as a 4th down TD pass from midfield for QB rating, but have very different values for DVOA (and...in reality). I'm removing two guys from this list--one is irrelivant due to season ending injury, and the other is the 2nd Texans QB with a higher rank than Campbell. With them, Campbell ranks 19th, coincidently exactly where QB rating has him. I'm also projecting Campbell to move ahead of McNabb and Harrington, while staying ahead of Kitna. My reasoning for this is that McNabb has never been particularly statstically impressive, and Harrington is a historically bad QB having an aberration year. So eliminating 2 guys from this list and sliding JC up two spots leads me to rank him as the 15th best QB in the league, behind: Brady (131.8) Garrard (102.9) Anderson (90.7) Manning (90.8) Romo (103.3) Garcia (95.5) Favre (96.2) Palmer (91.1) Roethlisberger (110.2) Cutler (84.8) Brees (84.8) Warner (86.2) Schaub (85.0) Hasselbeck (89.3) Jason Campbell (79.9) So in essence, my argument is that Jason Campbell is ALREADY a top 15 NFL passer this year and will only get better with time, especially over the next two seasons. Just a little statstical optimism to throw on top of the rest of this thread. __________________ according to a source with knowledge of the situation.