Paying Samuel isn't Patriots' only option at corner
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
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Updated: February 13, 2008
One of the big free-agent questions this offseason is whether the New England Patriots will be able to keep cornerback
Asante Samuel. Samuel's presumedly high price tag will certainly have a lot to do with the Patriots' decision. There are a number of reasons to think that Samuel has a lot of negotiating leverage.
First, he is a young player on a defense that is starting to get very long in the tooth in a lot of places; five players who started on New England's defense last season will be on the wrong side of 30 at the beginning of the 2008 season. Second, the Patriots' other starting cornerback,
Ellis Hobbs, gave up 9.6 yards per pass attempt last season, and he may have to be replaced as well. There are also more than a few teams that have ample cap space to make a run at Samuel.
Asante Samuel
Cornerback
New England Patriots
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Even with all of these factors on Samuel's side, he might not get a
Nate Clements-like offer from the Pats. (The San Francisco 49ers gave Clements an eight-year, $80 million contract that included $22 million in 2007.)
Samuel's 41.3 success percentage -- the percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball -- and 7.4 YPA last season were both steps back from his 2006 totals in those categories (7.0 YPA and 48.8 success percentage). His six interceptions were also down from 2006, when he posted career high of 10, and three of his 2007 picks came against backup quarterbacks. Samuel's drop of the potential game-winning interception in Super Bowl XLII also didn't help his cause. To put this another way, Samuel's starting spot in last Sunday's Pro Bowl looks more like it was granted on his 2006 performance than his 2007 numbers and suggests he might be worthy of a place on my annual overrated players list.
If those factors weren't enough to give the Patriots pause, there are some compelling alternate options to Samuel on the free-agent market. The first of these players is already on New England's roster, nickel cornerback
Randall Gay.
Gay had a superb 5.8 YPA last season and allowed zero completions on the seven vertical passes thrown his way. Those numbers indicate he has the potential to be a starter. Gay is almost certain to garner a lot of interest on the market, but he will not be priced at the elite cornerback level. He would not cost the Patriots anywhere near as much as Samuel and could potentially give them equal coverage value.
A higher-priced option whom the Patriots' brain trust could pursue is
Marcus Trufant. Trufant isn't always mentioned as being in Samuel's neighborhood as a shutdown cornerback, but his 2007 metrics indicate he should be:
The concern about Trufant would be that his 2007 performance might be a result of playing in a contract year. I mention this because he hasn't performed as well in previous seasons. For example, in 2006 he allowed 9.0 YPA and had a success level of only 36.4 percent. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has worked wonders with up-and-down players in the past, however. Therefore, Trufant's inconsistency might not be as big of a concern for New England as it would be for many other teams.
What it all may come down to for Samuel is whether
Nnamdi Asomugha and Trufant are slapped with the franchise tag. If they are franchised, Samuel will be the only high-profile cornerback on the market and he likely will be able to name his price with some team, be it the Patriots or someone else.
On the other hand, if Asomugha and Trufant hit the market, Samuel will be only one of three big-name defenders. In this scenario, Samuel could be viewed as the No. 3 cornerback available. As such, he might be hard-pressed to get the over-the-top contract value he has been looking forward to for the past two seasons.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.