Quote:
Originally Posted by KB24
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Below is an article taken from Football Outsiders.com:
ESPN - Adding star WR rarely improves team - NFL
...For example, let's look at a group that would include not only Johnson but also Boldin: receivers who gained 1,000 yards the previous season or a combined 2,000 yards the previous two seasons. Twenty-eight receivers qualify for a total of 31 seasons, since three receivers did it twice (Coles, Tony Martin and Keenan McCardell). Note that Moss counts only when he went from Minnesota to Oakland, not when he went from Oakland to New England, because of his poor 2006 season.
The 31 teams that lost these receivers dropped from an average of 7.3 wins to an average of 6.6 wins. But the 31 teams that picked up these receivers also dropped slightly, from an average of 7.9 wins to an average of 7.8 wins. ...
One reason these players haven't been more important to their new teams is that 1,000-yard receivers who change teams have usually tended to be very good No. 2 receivers like Boldin, rather than superstars like Johnson. Only 15 of these 31 receivers led both their old team and their new team in receiving yards. This group had a slightly positive effect, with teams that picked up these players going from an average of 7.7 wins to an average of 8.1 wins. ...
... As I said earlier, no player with Johnson's pedigree has ever changed teams in the offseason. Just because guys like Derrick Mason and Yancey Thigpen weren't major difference-makers when they changed teams, that doesn't mean Johnson couldn't transform an offense that desperately needed a No. 1 receiver (hello, Jacksonville). Obviously, this analysis doesn't do a good job of measuring the transformative power of Owens in Philadelphia or Moss in New England. Owens helped the Eagles win more playoff games, not more regular-season games. Moss and the 2007 Patriots don't even show up in the analysis because he was so bad in Oakland.
On the other hand, Owens and Moss have each switched teams twice, and neither one made as much of a difference the other time. The Cowboys signed Owens and went from 9-7 to … 9-7. Even after trading for Moss, the Raiders' offense was still a joke.
Nothing guarantees Johnson will help carry his new team to the Super Bowl the way Owens and Moss did for the Eagles and Patriots. Odds are that the loss of Johnson or Boldin will hurt Cincinnati or Arizona more than the addition will help their new teams. ... |
I enjoy FootballOutsiders, but sometimes their analysis get pretty equivocal and try to mask opinion behind what looks like some sort of sophisticated (or not) statistical analysis. Their DVAR etc. is good, but here they don't really say much. I have broken down what I think is the heart of the article for quick reading.
If you notice they say, "One reason these players haven't been more important to their new teams is that 1,000-yard receivers who change teams have usually tended to be very good No. 2 receivers like Boldin, rather than superstars like Johnson." So already they are not really taking a firm stand. I think it would also be difficult to argue that Terrell Owens has not made the Cowboys a more explosive offense - they did go 13-3 last year in his second season with the team (at one point they also write that Terrell Owens helped the Eagles win more games in the playoffs not in the regular season, quite a feat since he did not play in the playoffs and they lost the Super Bowl ... but I'm nit picking perhaps).
They also say numerous times that a player of Johnson's caliber switching teams is unprecedented - again saying something while saying that what they say doesn't actually matter.
The larger point, as SmootSmack has indicated, is that giving up a 1st for Johnson would not preclude the Redskins from addressing other needs in this draft. You say Johnson is not the panacea, but do you think Phillip Merling is? A good DE, who plays the run, but was not even a pass rush threat at the collegiate level? I could see if we were giving up an opportunity to take Chris Long, but likely there will not be an elite pass rusher at 21 to take. Then you say that you would like them to take Jordy Nelson in the 2nd round, which brings up opportunity costs because you are giving up the chance to get a DT or CB or OL at that spot. So one of the two picks, whether it goes for Johnson or Nelson, would go to a WR. Clearly there are also costs for acquiring Johnson, most notably his salary. I can see that argument too. I just think some are too quick to decry him as a 'locker room cancer'. And SGY brings up a good point about the penalties for excessive celebration ... that is boneheaded and does differentiate him from Portis. So that is something to consider perhaps.
I am fine if the trade doesn't go through. I am ok if it does. Now, if the FO adds more to the pot, or if the escalators on the conditional 3rd are not sufficiently high to all but preclude their attainment, then I would have more difficulty accepting the deal. I really don't think it will happen and think the Skins will be picking at 21 come Saturday night.