Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat
If Campbell remains the starter in 2009, there are really three possible scenarios to how this could all play out (as i see it).
1. Campbell Sucks. Whether its solely his fault or partly due to playcalling, poor o-line play, lack of effort from receivers, etc --the bottom line is, campbell doesnt perform well in 2009. At the end of the season, we obviously wont renew his contract and theres a very good chance Zorn is fired too, and we have to build from scratch in 2010 with a new coach, new system, and new QB.
2. Campbell plays extremely well; puts up great numbers and does everything asked of him. But since his contract is expired, he's going to be very very expensive to retain. We will pay through the nose for him and this will hurt our ability to address other areas of need.
3. Campbell plays extremely well and he signs somewhere else because we can't "show him the money." We lose campbell, get no compensation in return for him; and have to find a new starting QB.
if i'm missing something, please let me know, but those are the only realistic scenarios i can think of and none of None of them sound appealing to me. How can we avoid all of those unpleasant scenarios? Well, we have to do something NOW. There are two choices:
1. Trade Campbell. Ive discussed this issue and the benefits of it in the Byron Leftwich thread, and i'm not going to go into much detail there. Suffice to say, in this scenario we would go after a free agent QB with WCO experience to "hold down the fort" until Brennan became a viable option. In the trade, we would net atleast a 2nd round pick, which could be used on an offensive linemen to protect our new starter and help open lanes for Portis.
2. Sign Campbell to some sort of modest extension now. I'm thinking a 3-4 year extension that paid him above average starting QB money (6-8M/year?)if he remains the starting QB. Understandably, Campbell would want some security, so we could include a clause that allowed him to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of a season if he was no longer the starting QB. We could also included language that allowed him to become a free agent if he was elected to the pro-bowl or reached other performance incentives. A contract like this would be good for both Campbell and for the team. It would give him a dramatic pay increase in 2009 and beyond, as well as a garauntee that he could become a free agent if we (a) demoted him or (b) his performance dicated that he would make more money on the open market.
IMO we have to make some sort of decision about Campbell now, otherwise we are setting ourselves up for some sort of messy situation in 2010.
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Third option. We do nothing with Campbell right now. Campbell improves in 2009, and going into the uncapped 2010 year, we use one of our three franchise/transition tag designations on Jason Campbell while we hammer out the specifics of a long term deal. With no cap, $16 million for one season is nothing, and Campbell's incentive is to try to get a deal done so he gets all that money in the form of guaranteed contract value, and gets to play here for his prime years.
Absent a CBA extension, he wouldn't actually become a UFA in 2010 anyway, he would be an RFA.
With Rogers and Campbell both, there's no hurry to get a deal done with them right away because there's crazy uncertainty with the CBA, and knowing the specifics of a potential new deal is critical to determining the structure of these long term contracts. Basically, we have to avoid screwing ourselves over from a potential cap (or lack thereof) perspective.
Also, when has a pro-bowl QB under the age of 34 ever hit the open market? I don't think that has
ever occurred in NFL history. I'm far more worried about Rogers' future than Campbell's.