Having slept on this, and not seeing anyone else mention it, figured I'd risk showing bad form and bump this thread to see if anyone else feels the same.
I was actually rather surprised at the "hit" rate on a pick as low as 243.
If you'd have asked me before I started the research what percentage of 28 players (the original 30 I looked at, less two still active and yet to reach my subjective 10-start milestone yet), would end up having productive, multi-year careers, I'd have probably set the over/under at around 10%.
As it is, that number is almost a third, at 32%. That 1 out of 3 players chosen in the mid-240's can not only make the NFL, but stick around and even thrive, says something.
What it says, of course, would be a fascinating topic in its own right---good thing it's a long offseason.
Seriously though, anyone else surprised by this?
1988 - JEFF HERROD, LB, IND
9 YRS IND - plyd 133, 89 strt
1 YR PHI - plyd 10, strt 2
1 YR IND - plyd 10, strt 7
Career: 11 yrs, 153 gms, 125 strt, 14.5 scks, 5 INT, 1 TD, ? tckls
1995 - JASON FISK, DT, MIN
4 YRS MIN - plyd 54, strt 16
3 YRS TEN - plyd/strt 47
3 YRS SD - plyd 47, strt 30
1 YR CLE - plyd 16, strt 14
1 YR STL - plyd 16
Career: 12 yrs, 180 gms, 107 strt, 280 tckls, 19 scks, 3 INT
1982 - KEITH UECKER, OT, DEN
2 YRS DEN - plyd 21, strt 2
6 YRS GB - plyd 64, strt 47
Career: 8 yrs, 85 gms, 49 strt
1981 - AVON RILEY, LB, HOU
6 YRS HOU - plyd 88, 61 strt
1 YR PIT - plyd 3
Career: 7 yrs, 91 gms, 61 strt, 6.5 scks, 3 INT, ? tckls
1999 - KELVIN GARMON, OG, DAL
4 YRS DAL - plyd/strt 21
2 YRS SD - plyd 23, strt 21
1 YR CLE - plyd/strt 8
Career: 6 yrs, 52 gms, 50 strt
1984 - ADAM SCHREIBER, OG, SEA
1 YR SEA - plyd 6
1 YR NO - plyd 1
3 YRS PHI - plyd 27, strt 12
2 YRS NYJ - plyd 23
4 YRS MIN - plyd 63, strt 17 (16 in '93)
3 YRS NYG - plyd 47, strt 4
3 YRS ATL - plyd 35
Career: 17 yrs, 202 gms, 33 strt
1980 - GREG BRACELIN, LB, DEN
1 YR DEN - plyd 12
1 YR OAK - plyd 15
3 YRS BAL/IND - plyd 41, strt 29
Career: 5 yrs, 68 gms, 29 strt, 9.5 scks, 3 INT, ? tckls
1976 - DOUG BEAUDOIN, DB, NE
4 YRS NE - plyd 45, strt 21
1 YR MIA - plyd 10
1 YR SD - plyd 4
Career: 7 yrs, 59 gms, 21 strt, 4 INT, ? tckls
2001 - TERDELL SANDS,* DT, KC (active)
1 YR KC - DNP
1 YR GB - plyd 1
6 YRS OAK - plyd 76 gms, 13 strts
Career-to-date: 7 yrs, 77 gms, 13 strt, 129 Tckls, 4 scks, 1 INT